Lhivera made an interesting post about the normalized ceofficent data in Mists. Based on the data that can be found
here, these are my observations.
Fire spell damage:
| Spell | Coefficient |
|---|
| Pyroblast | 4.216 |
| Living Bomb | 2.085 |
| Fireball | 1.884 |
| Inferno Blast | 0.789 |
Fire spells normalized for cast times:
| Spell | Coefficient |
|---|
| Pyroblast (Hot Streak) | 2.811 |
| Living Bomb | 1.390 |
| Pyroblast | 1.205 |
| Fireball | 0.754 |
| Inferno Blast | 0.526 |
Based on the data from the normalized table hard-casting Pyroblast could exceed the damage from casting Fireball. This, of course, does not include the benefits of casting quicker spells to increase the odds of a Hot Streak proc, however, with the addition of Inferno Blast it may be a viable option to hard cast Pyroblast. Since Inferno Blast has an 8 second CD the benefit from more spells hitting the boss is reduced. Acquiring one crit from casting Pyroblast every 8 seconds seems as thought it would be a viable method of dps if Pyroblast remains higher damage per second than Fireball.
Arcane has undergone a much greater amount of change than Fire based on the beta. I very, very quickly realized that the days of spamming Arcane Blast until the boss dies are over. Each stack of Arcane Charge increases the mana cost of Arcane Blast by 125%, which makes use of the spell at 4 stacks unpractical. Further analysis of the normalized coefficient data provides more evidence to support the termination of Arcane Blast spamming.
| Spell | Coefficient |
|---|
| Arcane Missiles (4 charges) | 3.240 |
| Arcane Missiles (3 charges) | 2.835 |
| Arcane Blast (4 charges) | 2.588 |
| Arcane Missiles (2 charges) | 2.430 |
| Arcane Blast (3 charges) | 2.264 |
| Nether Tempest | 2.088 |
| Arcane Missiles (1 charge) | 2.025 |
| Arcane Barrage (4 charges) | 1.942 |
| Arcane Blast (2 charges) | 1.941 |
| Arcane Barrage (3 charges) | 1.699 |
| Arcane Missiles | 1.620 |
| Arcane Blast (1 charge) | 1.617 |
| Arcane Barrage (2 charges) | 1.457 |
| Arcane Blast | 1.294 |
| Arcane Barrage (1 charge) | 1.214 |
| Arcane Barrage | 0.971 |
Here is the same data, but normalized for cast time:
| Spell | Coefficient |
|---|
| Arcane Missiles (4 charges) | 1.620 |
| Arcane Missiles (3 charges) | 1.418 |
| Nether Tempest | 1.392 |
| Arcane Barrage (4 charges) | 1.295 |
| Arcane Blast (4 charges) | 1.294 |
| Arcane Missiles (2 charges) | 1.215 |
| Arcane Barrage (3 charges) | 1.133 |
| Arcane Blast (3 charges) | 1.132 |
| Arcane Missiles (1 charge) | 1.013 |
| Arcane Blast (2 charges) | 0.971 |
| Arcane Barrage (2 charges) | 0.971 |
| Arcane Missiles | 0.810 |
| Arcane Blast (1 charge) | 0.809 |
| Arcane Barrage (1 charge) | 0.809 |
| Arcane Blast | 0.647 |
| Arcane Barrage | 0.647 |
Because of the ability to cast Invocation anytime there has been a lot of speculation that it will be best to simply spam Arcane Blast as much as possible and then regenerate the mana back. If you look at the chart above the damage from Arcane Blast at 4 stacks is not as strong as Arcane Barrage or Arcane Missiles at the same number of stacks. After some quick testing on PTR to determine how long I would be capable of sustaining a rotation of only spamming Arcane Blast I quickly realized that the burst would last only 30 seconds at best. Considering that when we level to 90 and the gear is weak in comparison to what we have now spamming Arcane Blast for higher damage will not work. Bellow is a graph that charts the benefit of Invocation based on the fequency of it's use. The formula for this graph is
(3*x)/(x+6) where x is the time between Invocation uses.
The red line marks where Invocation changes from a dps gain to a dps loss. Casting Invocation every 20 seconds or more frequently is a dps loss because of the 6 seconds spent not doing damage. This brings me to my thoughts about how the Arcane Rotation could work out. Since there are more powerful spells than Arcane Blast and spamming Arcane Blast is unpractical, the rotation should be about maximizing the damage from Missiles and clearing stacks with Arcane Barrage. Arcane Missiles now stacks up to 2 times and adds a stack of Arcane Charge. Arcane will likely change to a priority based spell rotation that is dynamic with mana pools. Based on the data from above and some common sense, I think the rotation for arcane will look something like this:
1. Arcane Missiles (if 2 stacks are up)
2. Nether Tempest
3. Arcane Missiles (if Arcane Charge is 3 or 4)
4. Arcane Barrage (if no Missile procs are available and Arcane Charge has 3 or 4 stacks)
5. Arcane Blast (if stacks are less than 3)
Arcane Missiles while 2 stacks are up is placed at the top of the priority list because you never want to waste an Arcane Missiles proc. Nether Tempest is second on the list because it both does good damage and also gives additional chances to proc Arcane Missiles. Following Nether Tempest is Arcane Missiles while there are 3 or 4 stacks of Arcane Blast on the target. I think it will prove to be beneficial to save Arcane Missiles procs for high stacks and then dump them since Arcane Missiles costs zero mana and benefits from Arcane Charge.
Another interesting point is that as Arcane we will likely want to pre-invocate right before pulling a boss for higher damage. This means we will need a countdown timer of at least 7 seconds to pre-invocate, pre-pot and start up a cast.
I'm curious as to others thoughts on the rotation(s). Hopefully a few of you have been more fortunate in regards to beta invites than I have been.