Chain casting a lot of frostbolts on the PTR has shown that FoF will refresh itself back to 2 charges; you can burn both charges with a frostbolt+icelance combo however and get an additional 2 charges instead of just the 1.

There may be some math involved with that, but it may've already been expounded upon for all I know.

Have always run with 3 locks so have never gone down to 126 hit but it is a good point. Still more reason to go 0/50/11 however.

Edit: Just Noticed updated simcraft numbers in http://elitistjerks.com/930232-post3042.html

Personally I would rather FB spam then have to watch living bomb, especially for a meager 4 theory dps.

Probably go with 11/50/0 myself because you don't have to do anything but mash fireball and watch scorch for the most part. Easy play usually means higher dps if things are close because there is less to mess up on.

Also.. Has anyone noticed that if you get hot streak cast a fireball that crits and then cast a pyro that crits you don't get hotstreak to proc again? Was just playing around on beta and noticed that i wasn't getting hotstreak to proc from that sort of cast sequence and it is pretty much impossible to get 2 crit fireballs and use a pyro without canceling a third fireball and losing some time. Is anyone else noticing this? I ask because i don't recall seeing it mentioned anywhere.

Edit: I'll see if i can get a screenshot of my combatlog when it happens.

Edit2: Here it is: http://i184.photobucket.com/albums/x...008_222706.jpg

I just spent a couple of hours testing level 70 dps specs (since levelling to 80 is effort) on the l70 target dummies in Orgrimmar. I came up with some unexpected results, so I'll post them here and hope that someone can tell me whether I did something wrong, or whether this would be normal for a t4/t5 geared mage.


~~~ Methodology ~~~

I tested three talent specs - 61/0/0, 0/50/11, 0/0/61 - 14 times each, then averaged the dps. I also kept track of how much total damage I did, which was interesting as you will see later. Arcane Intellect and Molten Armor were up. I used up one mana pool with no gems / elixirs / flasks / potions, assuming that the lack of them for each test would make no difference overall.

Rotations were as follows:

61/0/0: Arcane Barrage, Arcane Blast, repeat. AP and PoM used the first time Missile Barrage popped. Whenever Missile Barrage popped I would use Arcane Missiles. (I forgot to use Berserking.)

0/50/11: Scorch to 5 stacks, blow Combustion / Berserking / Icy Veins, then spam Fireball & Fire Blast. Hit Scorch when necessary to keep the stack up. Hit Pyroblast whenever Hot Streak pops.

0/0/61: Frostbolt to 5 stacks, hit Icy Veins / Berserking, summon Water Elemental. Whenever Fingers of Frost pops, Frostbolt / Frostbolt / Icelance to get 3 almost guarenteed crits. I used Cold Snap to get a second Icy Veins every other fight.


~~~ THE RESULTS ~~~

61/0/0: 1261dps, 106k average damage. I forgot to use Berserking, which should be a 5% increase (63dps). I also couldn't use Focus Magic, which is a 3% crit bonus for 10 seconds whenever the person you cast it on crits. So assume that's up 2/3 of the time, which is (say) another 2% (25dps). So total is 1349dps.

0/50/11: 1239dps, 83k average damage. This would be increased by ~50 for Molten Fury (+12% damage when boss is at low health), and if you had the improved Scorch glyph you'd only have to scorch twice to start instead of 5 times. So say 1300dps total.

0/0/61: 1329dps, 118k average damage. My mana didn't last long enough to use 2 Water Elementals when I hit Cold Snap, so increase it a bit for that - say 1375dps.


~~~ Evaluation ~~~

I was surprised how close in dps everything is. Allowing for a little slop due to my back of a napkin estimates and less-than-scientific testing methods, each spec is within ~3-5% of the others in terms of raw dps.

The only major difference between them is that Frost seemed to get a lot more damage out of a mana pool. My Arcane and Fire rotations would last for 70-80s, but Frost lasted an extra 20s. Assuming that's correct, it would seem that Frost would be the spec du jour, at least for a single mage (since they get Winter's Chill).

One question that I can't answer is with Fire - is living bomb going to increase your dps? I couldn't test it properly because it would hit the other target dummies, which would add extra aoe damage and invalidate stuff. I also forgot to take World in Flames for the fire spec, which probably would have increased the damage a bit.


~~~ Practical Application (for your last month of raiding at level 70) ~~~

Assuming two mages in the raid, one Frost and one Arcane probably makes sense - the Arcane mage can do Focus Magic to help both of them, and the Frost mage can keep Winter's Chill up. Also fire seems to suck for single target dps, but it does have a lot of AOE potential (plus Living Bomb). Plus keeping up Scorch is annoying.


~~~ The end! ~~~

With the sort of test you have done, frost is usually artificially inflated, due to the water elemental being up for an abnormally large amount of the testing. Compared to a sustained boss encounter where the actual uptime of the water elemental is closer to its lower end, rather than the possible upper end. ie. Given a 2 minute fight, you can have 100% uptime, but the next couple of minutes you have drastically lower dps.

Secondary to that, I'd say is the fire spec not having its secondary in arcane for spell impact might have lowered its results. Following this thread leaves me to believe once you have 50 or 51 points in fire, you go the top of the frost tree for 'frostfirebolt spec' and the top fo the arcane tree for 'fireball' spec.

Its still encouraging to see things 'reasonably equal' in that sort of testing, which may be similar to munching mobs in 5 mans while levelling and gearing up at 80. I still hold a candle for deep frost - but as previous posts have said, the spec is pretty much DOA (for frostbolt or frostfirebolt) compared to the alternatives.

I agree. Fire's dps is heavily dependent on crit rate because of ignite, hot streak and burnout. Frostfire bolt's dps is even more dependent on RNG because of how low its base damage is and how high its crit modifier is.

The section i am looking at is:
22:23:48 fireball 2 casts
22:23:48 fireball 1 lands (noncrit)
22:23:50 fireball 3 casts
22:23:51 fireball 2 lands (crit)
22:23:53 fireball 4 casts
22:23:54 fireball 3 lands (crit)
22:23:54 Gains hotstreak (can't use right on without canceling fireball 4)
22:23:56 pyro casts
22:23:56 fireball 4 lands (crit)
22:23:56 pyro lands (crit)

And i don't get a second hotstreak proc. I crit 4 times in a row. The only noncrit was the first fireball shown in the log to hit. The 4th fireball (third fb crit) and the the pyro from hotstreak both hit within the same second and both crit. During these 4 casts i have no noncrits and 4 crits but only got 1 hotstreak proc. Shouldn't the 4th fireball or the pyro (depending on which hit second) have procced a second hotstreak?
The cast sequence is Fireball crit-> fireball crit->fireball crit->pyro crit which should yield a second instant pyro at the end since all four spells crit right? Or do pyro crits not proc hotstreak?

Edit: Nevermind i just looked at the talent calc and hotstreak isn't procced by pyro. I sort of fail at reading talents.

Being that I play both hunter and mage (and having a hard time deciding which to play actively in WLK), I'm curious where this statement came from. After all you did more damage than him and with higher dps. What is it that makes hunter dps "OP"?

Comparing 10/51/0 spec to deeper-arcane alternatives
------------------

Hmmm
Burnout + Living Bomb vs Arcane Potency + Focus Magic

Each point in burnout provides +10% damage on all fire crits
Given the fire crit formula:
(1+(0.5+0.045[CSD])*(1+0.5[Spell Power]+0.5[Burnout]+1[Ice Shards]+0.05[4T7]))*(1+0.4[Ignite])
we get:

CSD, Ignite, Burnout nothing else
(1+0,545*1,5)*1,4 = 2.5445 final crit multiplier

CSD, Ignite, 2/5 Burnout
(1+0,545*1,2)*1,4 = 2.3156 final crit multiplier

In 50% crit scenarios, going from 5/5 burnout to 2/5 burnout means reducing dps by a following factor (0,5+0,5*2,5445) / (0,5+0,5*2,3156) = 1.069, thus 7%

In 40% crit scenarios, going from 5/5 burount to 2/5 burnout means reducing dps by a following factor
(0,6+0,4*2,5445) / (0,6+0,4*2,3156) = 1.05999, thus 6%.

So, unless i royally messed up the math somewhere, at 40% crit point, burnout provides smaller benefit than Arcane Potency to fireball spam. At 50% crit point, it gives 1% dps more. In all cases you lose 5% of crit's base mana (which at 50% crit rate and 15% MoE return results in 2.4% total mana pool loss (1+0,5*0,15)/(1+0,5*0,1).

--------
Living bomb has been shown to account for 10% dps for 6% of cast time. Thus a 3.4% net dps benefit. I don't have the lvl 70 numbers yet though.

Focus Magic provides 6% extra crit. As long as you are casting it on a target with dps similar to yours, at least 100% crit modifier and at most 50% crit before Focus magic, it will translate to a total dps increase, equivalent to 4% of yours. At 110% modifier, 40% crit rate, it is 4.6% increase.

--------

So, my somewhat primitive maths show that 14/47/0 spec is not a significant dps loss, compared to 10/51/0 spec.

However, it doesn't come with any of the mana and crit dependency strings attached, and it fact performs better in low-crit environments.

Need to confirm how this works with scorches in the picture, and also the %dps increase of lvl70 LB with 100% uptime.

MMO is quoting that as a blue post, but I can't find where. I assume it is from blizzcon.

Given the ability to switch like that, has anyone thought if it would be preferable to have an AOE spec and a boss spec? I'm not much of a pvper, so it seems like any time saved on trash would be worth it. If frostfire stays viable of a dps spec, then resist fights shouldn't be a concern too, and either way there doesn't seem to be any fire immune bosses from what I've seen. Is blizzard + frostbire + shatter + fof the current best AOE, or can fire pull ahead with fire starter (seems unlikely to me)?

He said he was geared moderately better than the hunter.

You're really introducing too many variables at once here. Comparing 10/51/0 to 14/47/0 is shifting two things simultaneously (moving living bomb to focus magic, and moving burnout to spell impact). It should really be compared individually.

Comparing 14/47/0 to 11/50/0, I did the same math on a previous page and came to the same conclusion: 40% crit is the breakeven point of fireball spam between 3/3 Spell Impact with 2/5 Burnout and 5/5 Burnout without Spell Impact. Keep in mind, though, almost no one is going to have less than 40% crit in raiding situations. The Winter's Chill/Improved Scorch change results in more raid-buffed crit than before, plus Focus Magic itself is 3% more personal crit, and since we're talking level 70 here, there is no decay on the crit rating on gear so that's on top of whatever crit you already had. Additionally, Burnout affects pyroblast to improve the dps of your Hot Streak procs as well, while Spell Impact does not, so while 40% is the breakeven point for pure fireball spam, adding Hot Streak makes the breakeven even lower.

Bottom line, 5/5 Burnout is far and away above 3/3 Spell Impact and 2/5 Burnout, basically for anyone who'll be raiding. Spell Impact may be better solo when your crit won't be buffed (and you're less likely to stack scorches before just killing stuff), but a percentage point of dps here or there doesn't matter much when soloing down mobs in seconds. Whether Focus Magic + Clearcasting or Icy Veins + Elemental Precision is better--or whether you want Living Bomb or not--is another story entirely, but if you decide to go as far as 11/50/0, going a step further for Spell Impact at the cost of Burnout is a clear-cut poor choice.

Answers From the Blizzcon Class Panel Q&A:
Nothing we haven't heard before (read: mixed results), but always good to hear again.

It's good to know that they are aware of LBs lackluster damage (as evidenced by the analysis and meters posted above), though the ArBarr comment seems...enigmatic.

Clearly an answer to a bad question, though I was hoping for a fire talent damage shield, maybe to replace Fiery Payback.

Maybe I have picked the wrong word, but what I have tried to say is I had all ilvl 200-213 items equipped in all slots and he had some lvl 77-80 blues. I haven't looked at his crit rate, but in that fight I had about 10-12% higher crit than I am supposed to have, too. He outdpsed me or was always close on other fights, too.

As a side note, I don't expect hunter dps to be lower than mage dps when all is said and done. After all, they are both doing the same thing with two different damage types (physical/magical).

We'll from what I've been reading it looks like 11/50/0 is the spec I'll be using come 3.0. So with that in mind what Glyphs would you guys be using? From what I've read (Haven't seen/read much testing with them) I'd be leaning towards:

Glyph of Improved Scorch
Glyph of Mage Armor -or- Glyph of Molten Armor
Glyph of Fireball

Now I have a couple questions:

1) Is the improved fireball crit chance worth losing the DoT effect?
2) Obviously if mana is not an issue the Molten Armor glyph is a no brainer. However from what I've read it sounds like fire has some mana issues. So are they bad enough to have to raid with Mage Armor or can you still use Molten?

My questions:
1) Fireball + Molten Armor glyphs use WOTLK herbs.
2) Why 11/50/0 instead of 0/50/11 ?

Your questions:
1) I think the FB dot is 25-30 dps or so from when I last tested it.
2) With our crit so high molten armor generates a great deal of mana, I haven't done the math but I assume its fairly close to mage armor, and mana isn't an issue from what I have read.

Edit: Hasty on wotlk components for ALL glyphs. Only 2 of the suggested ones actually use wotlk herbs.

You'll only have two glyph slots available to work with. One of the relatively recent patches locked one that now says "Unlocked at level 80."

Hrmm I must've missed that ... now choosing becomes even harder.

Glyph of Molten Armor and Glyph of Fireball both require WotLK to make.

It's Mage Armor and Improved Scorch.

Yeah I just found a quote that said:

Glyphs at 70
You have 2 Major Glyph slots at level 70. There are only a few useful Major Glyphs that do not require Northrend herbs.
Arcane Power, Improved Scorch and Mage Armour are the only raid relevant glyphs at level 70. Maybe Mana Gem as well.

So since we are going to be using Mage Armor and having clear clasting would 100% LB uptime be sustainable over the duration of a typical boss fight (IE: 6 mins or so)

Choices at 70 are:
Glyph of Mana Gem
Glyph of Mage Armor
Glyph of Imp Scorch
Glyph of Icy Veins
Glyoh of Arcane Power

I'll probably be going 10/51/0 or 0/50/11, depending on if LB can stack multiple times from different mages. Then I will use Imp Scorch and Mana Gem glyphs. If mana gets bad, I'll switch up mana gam with mage armor and use mage armor.

Well from everything Ive read and the "top dps specs" according to that chart (11/50/0 or 0/50/11) neither of them pick up LB and most seem to say its too mana inefficient. Do you really think you're gonna not have mana problems with just gems/pots/evo and be able to keep LB up 100% of the time?

EDIT: Nvm I see you have updated your chart and now 10/51 is now the top DPS spec. My question would be how long is LB sustainable with 100% uptime until mana becomes an issue?