Edit: Fail, beaten by Manly.

Sorry to post bad math, I'm just jumpy with all the stealth nerfing.

I updated the first post to include the new rotation. I am reposting here for simplicity' sake and to avoid redundant questions about what to do. This is taken directly from Kavan.

Rotations
Your rotation should mostly look like this:

AB AB AB abarr
if mbarr procs during AB, then your rotation should be:
AB AB AB mbarr abarr
if mbarr procs during abarr, then your rotation should be:
(abarr) mbarr abarr

There is an exception case to the above. Assuming you have infinite mana, theres one better rotation. You must still obey the above rules though:

AB (3 stacked spammed until mbarr proc) mbarr abarr
(please note: the rotation does not include ramp-up time because that should be covered by the other rules listed above. This rotation begins with the AB debuff already stacked 3 times)

While it isn't said directly in the above, if you get an mbarr proc during the 3rd AB (and that you do not have the time to react to it), then your rotation will end up being:
AB AB AB (mbarr proc here) abarr (since you had no time to react) mbarr abarr

I think I am getting abar-cooldown wait on the abar-mbam-abar sequence, when hasted by iv or trinket.

Is Abarr damage worth the time / mana with zero AB buffs?

That shouldn't be possible anymore. Basically, your buff is going to be consumed as soon as you begin to channel any form of missiles, proc or not.

Yea rephrased. I'm just gonna go with AB instead of the second Abar.

For simplicity' sake I did not mention it. Of course you just skip forward and start AB rotations under those circumstances.

Assumptions are roughly my gear, molten armor and using the procedure outlined in the dynamic cycles thread to find the optimal cycle pair at 300 mps barrier. Another assumption in the modeling is that this is in unhasted situation. So the optimal cycle pair for hasted situation will very likely be different.

Now that it's confirmed glyph will be hotfixed again I'll run the numbers again with the fix and I'll do them at several mps barriers to get a larger range of cycles.

Arcane Missiles is currently benefiting from the Arcane Blast glyph on Tichondrius-US.

Hotfixed 3-stacked AM confirmed:

1275
1505
1734
1964

From what I can tell from rawr, Missile Barrage and Arcane Barrage are just awesome, with MBAM being better than ABar.

Arcane Blast is average, but ramping it up is the best option as filler. If there's ever an option to take a zero-stack ABar or MBAM over starting the AB stack, take that option. If that option isn't available, then ramp to three then ABar or MBAM.

There are also some interesting things happening if mana is ever limited. Rawr wants me to cast as many AB*3 as filler. And then if that runs me out of mana too quickly, downrank to AB*2 as filler until I'm back at zero mana by the end of the fight.

I just tried out the rotation [Arcane Barrage]x3 -> [Arcane missiles] -> [Arcane Barrage] trying to clip the 4th missile with Arcane Barrage but it appears that when i cast Arcane Missiles, the Arcane Blast buff is consumed by the 1st missile which activates the 60% damage increase for the missiles but Arcane barrage does not benefit from the 60% damage increase anymore.

If this is the case, what would the next best rotation be besides spamming Arcane Blast?

Can I suggest you read the last 5 or so pages of this thread? In fact your question is answered just a few post above yours and doing some reading before posting is always a good thing.

Forgive the basic probability question, as I'm not sure the best place to post this... Can someone please tell me the formula for determining the probability that MB will proc after N casts?

What would be truly overwhelmingly awesome, would be to have a breakdown of optimal rotations based on MPS cutoffs.

Ok I have done a comprehensive analysis of best cycle pairs under unhasted condition for a reasonable range of mana regen (this is with glyph working on AM, slightly different gear setup so not comparable with previous results). It appears that when you change the mps barrier what was previously the low dps sustainable cycle takes the role of high dps unsustainable cycle. It is not clear to me that this always has to be the case, I did not attempt to prove it, but it holds in this case so I'll list the full range of optimal cycles.

First I checked the highest dps cycle. This is now AB30MBAMABar (spam AB, do MBAM-ABar at 3 stack or 0 stack only) with 5000.77539 dps, 412.843842 mps.

Next I started to cover the mana regen range. I started at 300 mps barrier. The high dps unsustainable cycle in this case is AB3MBAMABar (spam AB, do MBAM-ABar at 3 stack only) with 4986.48535 dps, 396.168274 mps. The low dps sustainable cycle is AB3ABarC (ABx3-ABar, use MBAM-ABar at 3 stack only) with 4775.48438 dps, 237.8472 mps.

Lowering the mps barrier AB3ABarC becomes unsustainable and the new sustainable cycle becomes AB2ABar3MBAMABar (ABx2-ABar, use MBAM-ABar at 3 stack only) with 4682.732 dps, 202.516235 mps.

Further lowering the mps barrier AB2ABarC (ABx2-ABar, use MBAM-ABar at 2 stack only) becomes the new sustainable cycle with 4584.458 dps, 168.772339 mps.

Going even further we get AB2ABar/MBAM (ABx2-ABar, replacing ABar in the cycle with MBAM if we see proc up) with 4525.909 dps, 155.8093 mps. Next is ABABarMBAM (AB-ABar, if you get a proc insert it after ABar and start again with AB) with 4446.221 dps, 140.724182 mps. Next is ABABar (plain AB-ABar, not using procs at all) with 4103.66748 dps, 101.676247 mps. If even that is not sustainable we have ABAM (plain AB-AM, procs get used automatically as they happen) with 3722.44922 dps, 74.8641052 mps.

Of interest is that the previous classic AB-ABar with replacing AB with MBAM is not optimal at any regen level. If you've read through this then you will notice that we have some real need for descriptive names for the cycles. I've tried my best to devise names that are somewhat suggestive, but they're far from perfect. If anyone has any idea for a naming nomenclature I'd like to hear your input. Keep in mind that we're dealing with 102 unique arcane cycles, but at least for the cycles that I listed here we might be able to come up with something that is easy to use.

Thank you for finding the optimal cycles so soon after the hotfix

May I suggest having some punctuation in the names? It's probably only me but some of these rotations are rather difficult to understand just by looking at the names, if the whole rotation gets meshed together into a long chain like AB30MBAMABar >_>

Some thoughts:
. represents a separator for casts in the rotation
/ means an alternative to that cast
() encloses the actions to take place when a MB proc happens
>> means replacing what comes before it with what comes after

Giving these for the rotations Kavan stated:
AB3(/0.MBAM.ABar)
AB3.(MBAM.ABar)
AB3.(MBAM).ABar
AB2.(3.MBAM).ABar
AB2.(MBAM).ABar
AB2.ABar(>>MBAM)
AB.ABar.(MBAM)
AB.ABar
AB.AM

Taking the first one as an example, AB3(/0.MBAM.ABar) should be read as AB3 normally, and when MB procs, AB3/0.MBAM.ABar

Althought now that I've written it down it looks unnecessarily complicated. <_<

EDIT:misunderstood a cycle in Kavan's post

Pretty sure you're doing something major wrong if you're seeing DPS numbers that low for any of those specs, with any semblance of decent gear (based on attempting S10+3, guessing you've got decent gear). Post your character file, and we can take a look, if you can't figure it out.

Interesting, I didn't think that any level of mana regen reachable by a mage would support simply standing and spamming AB until MBAM procced.

Are all those rotations assumed to be sustainable under a 2-minutes period (Where a mage would at that point evocate and start all over) or over the course of the entire fight?

Also what I don't understand is, if MBAM consumes the AB buff why include Abar at all in the rotation and not just go back to spamming AB after throwing MBAM?

Astrylian, I was looking at the talent spec in the chart and not on the spell stats page. My bad

And assuming everything is matched up, arc is now a few hundred dps ahead, although my gear is nearly maxed out.

This was a patchwork fight tonight.

Patchwerk : Sackobones

I topped that fight, and our Kelthuzad fight. I will say without any serious bleeds or dots the rogue/warrior/Ret pally facerolled huge numbers on Thaddius.

I did pretty well overall in the night. I faced a few times that I messed up my mana management but overall I was happy with the spec.

I tipped the charts on like 4-5 fights overall.