Crit Suppression discussion

Incoherent · 04/08/09, 11:57 AM

The purpose of this thread is to provide a focus for discussion on the subject of Crit Suppression. The discussion so far has taken place in the Frostfire Bolt Thread and has pulled that thread somewhat off topic, the issue is relevant for all specs.

What is Crit Suppression?

Spell casts on mobs may affected by an unknown adjustment to Critical Strike chance. This has been observed by Hunters and Deathknights, and appears to affect Mages and likely other casters, but the details differ.

Testing on Target Dummies indicate that there is an effect. There is a reduction in Crit chance on Mobs (or at least Target Dummies) that are of a higher level than the caster. Theorycrafting approaches for Boss level mobs may need to take this into account. There are also hints that casts on lower level mobs gain a increase in crit chance.

How much?

Tests so far seem to suggest that the critical chance reduction on Boss level mobs by level 80 casters is about 2.5% but is dependent on gear levels. Extremely low crit chance levels (i.e naked) are not affected as much.

Mechanics of Crit Suppression

To be established

Observations:

It is affected by level difference.
A level difference of 0, e.g. lvl80 vs lvl80 shows negligible suppression.
Large negative differences in level, e.g. lvl73 vs lvl80 show a large crit suppression.
Large positive differences in level, e.g. lvl 80 vs lvl60 show a small crit Inflation
Lvl 80 vs Boss level Target Dummy shows about 2.5% crit suppression for crit chances above ~10%
It does not seem to be affected by Spell Penetration. More testing needed.
Unbuffed level difference of -2 seems to not suffer from Crit Suppression
0 crit rating seems to not suffer from Crit Suppression
A level difference greater than 3 levels experiences some form of Crit Rating dependent "clamping" of crit suppression. The lower the Crit rating, the lower the clamped Crit suppression.
At level differences greater than 3 levels, lower Crit Ratings suffer less suppression than high Crit Ratings.

Theories

Flat modifier
Can’t be. Naked tests with base crit chance of 2% can still crit, significantly more often than a flat modifier would allow.

Flat Modifier reducing (linearly?) below a certain crit chance
Possible. How to factor in level difference? per level?

Adjustment to Crit Rating of ~35 per -ve level difference.
Not fully tested but fits most of the data seen so far. Effect of buffs/talents/debuffs not tested

It is a side effect of Target Dummy testing. There is no Crit suppression on real bosses/mobs.
Possible. The target dummies seem to have odd behaviour, they appear to be level 83 rather than caster+3. Their Spell resistances seem higher than "normal" bosses.

Targets have Resilience
Not likely. At least not the traditional resilience we see on gear. If the target had resilience we would see the effect it had on things like DoT reduction and crit damage reduction.
The effect seems not to be reduced by Spell penetration, more testing needed to verify this.

Crit is calculated as if the caster was the same level as the Target
Possible? The data seen so far does not support this

Diminishing Returns of some sort is in effect
Possible?

Test Requests

These are the tests that need to be performed. If anyone can do these it would be great.

1. Test with 0 Crit rating vs Boss level
I am seeing in the results of 2 samples that 0 crit rating results in NO crit suppression, perhaps even inflation.

2. Test with different values of Crit rating, 0 - normal rating, vs Boss level

Data Collection

There is starting to be a bit of data on this. It would be great if anyone could contribute to the testing, so far the most practical method seems to be Arcane missile spam. I have a request that any data contains the following information (As contained in screenshots of Recount summary and the Character sheet):

Caster Level:  Your level
Target:        Your Target mob, boss, dummy, player
Target Level:  Your target level, boss level    
Spell cast:    Arcane Missiles, Scorch, Frostbolt etc.
Count:         Number of spells cast
Hits:          Number of spells that hit (not crit)
Crits:         Number of spells that crit
Misses:        Number of spells that missed
Hit Rating:    Paper doll hit rating.
Crit Chance:   Paper Doll crit chance. 
Crit Rating:   The total Crit rating points from your gear. (mouseover your paperdoll crit chance.)
Intellect:     Paper doll Intellect for the duration of the test. 

Any other relevant information; buffs, debuffs, talents.
Preferably test without talents or gear that proc Crit affecting effects (FoF, Arcane potency etc)

Data Collected so Far

Who--------	Level	TrgLvl	Count	Hit	Crit	Miss	Hit R	Crit Ch	Crit R	Int	Bf/Tl	GrCr	IntCr
Exactly----	74	80	1177	700	31	446	155	0.0746	87	388	0.00	0.0294	0.0361
Exactly----	75	80	2534	1779	71	684	155	0.0704	87	391	0.00	0.0273	0.0340
Exactly----	76	80	2234	1752	61	421	155	0.0702	100	394	0.00	0.0292	0.0319
Exactly----	77	80	2820	2515	120	185	155	0.066	100	397	0.00	0.0271	0.0298

Exactly----	73	80	3051	1545	53	1453	155	0.1189	198	374	0.00	0.0720	0.0378
Exactly----	74	80	2771	1658	63	1050	155	0.1111	198	377	0.00	0.0669	0.0351
Exactly----	75	80	2688	1916	83	689	155	0.1043	198	380	0.00	0.0622	0.0331
Exactly----	76	80	3039	2372	116	551	155	0.0979	198	383	0.00	0.0578	0.0310
Exactly----	77	79	579	524	55	0	245	0.0917	198	386	0.00	0.0537	0.0290
Exactly----	77	80	3178	2748	202	228	155	0.0917	198	386	0.00	0.0537	0.0290
Exactly----	77	81	888	702	31	155	155	0.0917	198	386	0.00	0.0537	0.0290
Exactly----	77	82	1440	972	30	438	155	0.0917	198	386	0.00	0.0537	0.0290
Incoherent-	80	80	8186	7500	686	0	161	0.0851	198	549	0.00	0.0431	0.0329

Exactly----	73	83	2579	449	17	2113	155	0.1189	198	374	0.00	-10	0.0720	0.0378
Exactly----	74	83	2360	653	33	1674	155	0.1111	198	377	0.00	0.0669	0.0351
Exactly----	75	83	2517	936	40	1541	155	0.1043	198	380	0.00	0.0622	0.0331
Exactly----	76	83	4663	2244	76	2343	155	0.0979	198	383	0.00	0.0578	0.0310
Exactly----	77	83	2545	1511	56	978	155	0.0917	198	386	0.00	0.0537	0.0290
Incoherent-	80	83	7152	6409	410	333	161	0.0851	198	549	0.00	0.0431	0.0329
													
Who--------	Level	TrgLvl	Count	Hit	Crit	Miss	Hit R	Crit Ch	Crit R	Int	Bf/Tl	GrCr	IntCr
Zaldinar---	80	83	557	466	10	81	0	0.0199	0	0	0.00	0.0000	0.0000
Incoherent-	80	83	3960	3647	209	104	223	0.0507	0	694	0.00	0.0000	0.0416
Soulseek---	80	83	5512	5122	390	0	417	0.0848	155*	851*	0.00	0.0338	0.0511
Soulseek---	80	83	6369	5979	390	0	417	0.0848	155*	851*	0.00	0.0338	0.0511
Incoherent-	80	83	7152	6409	410	333	161	0.0851	198	549	0.00	0.0431	0.0329
Incoherent-	80	83	2791	2419	315	57	227	0.1309	106	812	0.05	0.0231	0.0487
Zorb-------	80	83	4000	3385	615	0	374	0.1681	470	944	0.00	0.1024	0.0566
Incoherent-	80	83	3150	2611	478	61	238	0.178	522	919	0.00	0.1137	0.0551
Incoherent-	80	83	2705	2233	432	40	241	0.1858	565	894	0.00	0.1231	0.0536
Shaewyn----	80	83	2501	1988	513	0	350	0.2307	405*	1043*	0.08	0.0882	0.0626
Moonraker--	80	83	5000	3947	1053	0	289	0.2321	599*	1193*	0.03	0.1305	0.0716
													
*guess

Relevant Tables

Miss Chance			Combat ratings. Rating/x=chance					
Lvl D	Miss		Level	Int	Hit	Crit	Haste	
4	0		60	?	800.0	1400.0	1000.0	
3	0.01		70	8000.0	1261.5	2207.7	1576.9	
2	0.02		71	8620.7	1357.4	2375.4	1696.7	
1	0.03		72	9259.3	1460.4	2555.8	1825.6	
0	0.04		73	9901.0	1571.4	2749.9	1964.2	
-1	0.05		74	10752.7	1690.7	2958.8	2113.4	
-2	0.06		75	11494.3	1819.1	3183.5	2273.9	
-3	0.17		76	12345.7	1957.3	3425.3	2446.6	
-4	0.28		77	13333.3	2106.0	3685.4	2632.5	
-5	0.39		78	14285.7	2265.9	3965.4	2832.4	
-6	0.5		79	15384.6	2438.0	4266.5	3047.5	
-7	0.61		80	16666.7	2623.2	4590.6	3279.0	
-8	0.72							
-9	0.83		Mage constant		0.009064			
-10	0.94

Addon Development

Ideas for the development of an Addon that could be used to assist in evaluating effects like Crit Suppression. This is probably deserving of it's own Thread as well, but here goes.

I am not a competent to even say what is possible with lua, nonetheless, here is a wish list.
-An addon that logs and saves an output similar to the /combatlog.
-Rather than logging every event, it only logs Spell casts/misses and DoT ticks/misses by the Player running the addon but contains the same information as a given line in the WoWCombatLog.

So far so good, it's just a filtered /combatlog.

-On the same output line, delimited in the same way, a number of additional values collected and calculated from both the Player Character Info and Buff/Debuff and the Target Debuff stack. Namely, anything and everything that affects; damage done, crit and hit rates/ratings, haste rating, cast speed. Not necessarily the actual debuffs/buffs/procs but the dynamically calculated, current at time of casting, values.

Addons like DrDamage can do this dynamic calculation so I am sure it is possible. It would only need to log on events like SPELL_CAST_SUCCESS, SPELL_MISSED or SPELL_DAMAGE although things like Haste and Cast Speed would need to be calculated on SPELL_CAST_START.

A line in this modified log might look like this:

4/8 02:14:56.175  SPELL_DAMAGE,"Incoherent",80,"Thaddius",Boss,"Frostbolt",28756,0,1,1034,543,2865,321,548,644,1.00,0.83,1.55,3.20

Being:

Date Time  SPELL_DAMAGE,Player,Player Level,Target,Target Level,Spell,Hit for/Missed?,Damage Resisted?,Crit?,Int,Spi,SpellP,HitR,CritR,HasteR,Hit Chance,Crit Chance, Cast speed, Damage Multiplier

The idea here is that if we are in possession of all the variables for every spell cast throughout a raid, we could actually use the information in our Raid logs for proper analysis, we could see why a spell missed, hit for some astronomical amount, not because we see that Dying Curse procced simultaneously with a mana Gem and Potion while standing in 3 Power Spark remains, but we'd be able to at least see the for-that-cast Spellpower, Crit rate etc values - something we cannot do with the current generation of logging addons.
Such a log would be very compact, only logging on Spell release, perhaps a few thousand lines for an entire raid. Maybe some issues with AoE.
Thoughts?

---

Please feel free provide some feedback and suggestions for this, particularly under the Observations and Theories headings. I am taking the liberty of posting as I think it deserves it's own thread.

To do:

Link relevant threads

Changes

12/04/09 Reformatted and updated data table
Added Combat ratings tables.
Added Test Requests

Megaera · 04/08/09, 2:56 PM

Have we considered a solution as simple as crit rating having an undocumented DR formula? I think it's important that we standardize testing methods so that we don't have some people varying expected crit values using talents or Int (which are likely to be off of a DR curve) and others varying expected crit values using rating-based gear/gems.

Imnumber01 · 04/08/09, 3:36 PM

Rather simple thought that may have been overlooked.

Maybe the crit-% on a character sheet is only for a same lvl mob.

And as the mob lvl increases the formula that calculates normal hit vs crit is actually applying our crit rating to a lvl+3 table that would require a higher crit rating to obtain the same percentage of average crits.

*(yes I know that if this worked inversely it would mean you would have 100% crits on some lvl mobs which isn't the case, but its not out of the realm of possibility that Blizz coded it so that it only works one way or has a maximum + or - on either side of it or even that it wouldn't work at all in pvp)

Zerstorung · 04/08/09, 3:58 PM

I believe I sparked this discussion back in the FFB thread when talking about how my RNG was always low. Now, despite possible crit suppression or diminishing returns, this doesn't remove the possibility of getting an unusually high RNG and critting more than your paper doll crit rate, does it? I ask because there have been times where I have crit 70+% on a boss fight, despite having 60% crit.

Enthorn · 04/08/09, 4:18 PM

No Zerstorung, your scenario is not the same thing as crit suppresion. If there is a crit suppression, then over the course of several hundreds of fights (assuming ~100-200 casts per fight), then yes, you could notice a trend, but realistically wouldn't. You would have to document your crit rate on a per cast basis, and even then, your overall crit rate for a fight is an average between all spells. For Frostfire builds, Pyroblasts and Living Bombs have 6% higher crit than Frostfire Bolt. Just as well, the 3% crit on Improved Scorch only affects FB/FFB/Scorch.

Regardless, unusually high RNG or unusually low RNG is not something that crit suppression is influencing short-term (or even long term, one could say, as that's why it's RNG based in the first place). This is why Loatheb is a lucrative fight for crit suppression testing. While maintaining a 100% crit rate for every spell cast could prove difficult, it goes without saying that if a boss has zero crit suppression, and you have 100% crit rate, then every spell cast should crit. At the same time, you could have a 60% crit and still end up with a 100% crit rate, which is one of the reasons thousands of casts are needed for any accuracy.

Althea · 04/08/09, 4:51 PM

Please add an addon section to the main topic, and write down what that addon should do/track. I will start the developing as soon as i have some main points to work with

Canyc · 04/08/09, 5:23 PM

For reference, could someone post a table of crit rating needed for 1% crit at various levels? I'd wager that the player's crit rating is being applied as if the player were of the target's level -- with some sort of normalization factor/caps being applied.

♦ nathanbp · 04/08/09, 5:36 PM

Originally Posted by Canyc

For reference, could someone post a table of crit rating needed for 1% crit at various levels? I'd wager that the player's crit rating is being applied as if the player were of the target's level -- with some sort of normalization factor/caps being applied.

http://elitistjerks.com/f31/t29453-c...gs_level_80_a/ says it should take ~25% more crit rating for 1% crit at level 83 than it does at 80 (57.18 crit rating = 1%). I don't believe that this matches the data so far for crit rates vs. boss level targets, although the data in that thread for rating conversions over level 80 could be wrong. That thread also has the information for determining the conversions at levels 1-80.

Althea · 04/09/09, 4:25 AM

Tonight i will start the development, following the guidelines in the main topic, please suggest an addon name so i can upload it on curse.com and let you all test it; additionally i could use some addon names that track events like we want, in this way i can look at the code and learn something

Sorry for my english, i am ita

Incoherent · 04/09/09, 7:35 AM

Originally Posted by Althea

Tonight i will start the development, following the guidelines in the main topic, please suggest an addon name so i can upload it on curse.com and let you all test it; additionally i could use some addon names that track events like we want, in this way i can look at the code and learn something

Sorry for my english, i am ita

CAnaLog? (Cast Analysis Log) SCALE? (simplified combat/cast analysis logging environment)... I am terrible at these things... With the idiotic tidal wave of offensive anal jokes that periodically flood Trade on my server I'd avoid AnaLog (Analysis Logging) - although that kind of appeals. How about RELEVANCE? REaltime Logging and EVAluatioN of spellCast/(Combat?) performancE. Actually I like that. Someone else suggest something less contrived. Please?

Recount is obviously a good place to start, it's recording damage from the whole environment. DrDamage is able to calculate things like Hit chance and Crit chance for specific spells depending on what buffs/debuffs etc are currently up, but the addon has not been updated for several months and is not accurate- I still use it for quick gear swap rough comparisons though.

Exactly is now 76. I am seeing that the earlier results are not noise - on Boss Level target dummies, between level 74 and 76, Crit suppression is almost constant, at about 6.3% with Crit Rating of 198. At 73 (10 levels delta) it suddenly increases to 8.3%.
Versus a level 80 it is maintaining a constant rate of improvement. The Boss level suppression at 74-76 (delta -9 to -7) is the same as 75 vs 80 target dummy (delta -5).

Althea · 04/09/09, 8:36 AM

RELEVANCE approved, i'll download DrDamage to see how it work and if it can be updated for our purposes

Thegoodmann suggested to

Every 1000 hits/crits, average the crit percentages logged and then store them into a file that has them as [spec,spell,hit/crit, actual,paper,delta].

And i think it's a good pattern to follow to have a set of results divided by files, without having to parse each single relevance log, but other opinions are welcome

Jonny_Monroe · 04/09/09, 9:02 AM

Targets have Resilience
Possible? The effect seems not to be reduced by Spell penetration, more testing needed to verify this.

Not likely. At least not the traditional resilience we see on gear. If the target had resilience we would see the effect it had on things like DoT reduction and crit damage reduction.

Shaewyn · 04/11/09, 1:04 PM

Perhaps one of the effects of this crit-suppression that has been overlooked is its effects on different specs.

A FFB or FB specced mage will suffer far more from any crit suppression than will an arcane mage or affliction warlock. As far as I know, this has not been accounted for in any serious theorycrafting (Rawr or Simulationcraft).

One thing I would also like to point out is that for any addon collecting real boss-fight damage, it's also going to have to collect cast-time crit rates, including buffs, debuffs, and other effects. Paper-doll crit rates are not enough information. Might it be easier to write a combat-log parsing utility? This could look for all of the relevant buffs/debuffs/casts and calculate each cast's crit chance...and with the widely varying crit rates as boss fights go, truly stupendous numbers of casts would be needed to get any meaningful statistical trends.

dedmonwakeen · 04/11/09, 1:57 PM

Originally Posted by Shaewyn

Perhaps one of the effects of this crit-suppression that has been overlooked is its effects on different specs.

A FFB or FB specced mage will suffer far more from any crit suppression than will an arcane mage or affliction warlock. As far as I know, this has not been accounted for in any serious theorycrafting (Rawr or Simulationcraft).

SimulationCraft does not apply crit-suppression to spells (only attacks) because we were unable to find reliable data on the subject.....

Zaldinar · 04/11/09, 6:39 PM

I have a simple combat log parsing script written in PHP that can handle the task provided you supply it with information about your stats. If people would be interested I could write it a simple web interface to upload a /combatlog dump, answer a few questions, and then get a result. The only concern is that we'd need accurate values for the questions, and the upload process would likely be slow.