Originally Posted by PsiVen
That's not going to be a simple answer. How do you intend to quantify the chance for a missed HoPo to affect survivability? Getting the numbers out would be a difficult, highly situational simulation.
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It might be if we wanted to micromanage to that degree. But an average estimate of the self-healing-per-second (SHPS) gained through hit could be compared to the survivability cost in average damage-taken-per-second (DTPS).
I have udpated the
priority queue simulation to match current conditions (CS buff, new seal proc mechanics, CS/HotR "broken" holy power implementation, 0 threat on WoG healing). They now report DPS, TPS, and SHPS. You can see that on average, at 2% hit and 10 expertise with 100% vengeance and a "SotR" talent/glyph build, WoG generates around 2.6k HPS at a cost of around 2k DPS (6k TPS). Increasing hit/exp to 8%/26 increases the self-healing to a little over 3k HPS, but increases the DPS/TPS cost to ~3.3k/10k respectively.
That means that 4% hit and 16 expertise (4% dodge redux, 4% parry redux) gives you about 600 HPS of healing. That means that each 1% hit is responsible for 600/12=50 HPS, and each 2 expertise (1% total dodge/parry redux) is worth the same. At ~120 hit rating per %, that makes each point of hit worth 50/120=0.42 HPS and each point of expertise worth 50/(2*30)=0.83 HPS.
By comparison, we can calculate the DTPS reduction of dodge/parry/mastery against a boss putting out 15k DPS (after mitigation and avoidance) on a tank with 30% total avoidance, 50% block. From the
Derivations thread, the formula for avoidance and mastery should be:
dD = D[-dAv-0.4*dB]/[1-Av-0.4*B]
where D is the incoming post-mitigation/avoidance DTPS, dD is the change in D due to the addition of dAv post-DR avoidance or dB block, and Av and B are your character sheet (post-DR) avoidance and block.
Assuming 12.5% post-DR dodge (or parry), one additional point of rating adds 0.0039% avoidance, or dAv=3.8792e-5 in our notation (Av=0.3, B=0.5). At D=15000 dps, this gives a dD=-1.16 DPS, a larger decrease in intake than the increase in self-healing from expertise or hit.
Under those same conditions, 1 point of mastery gives dD=-1.5 DPS, even larger (as expected).
Note that these scale linearly with D, so for avoidance to drop enough to match mastery it would take a D of 15k*0.83/1.16=10.7k DPS. So on some of the more weakly-hitting bosses, the argument could be made that expertise is a viable survivability stat. The boss would have to be hitting for under 5.4k DPS to make that same argument for hit, however, and both values get worse if you want to compare against mastery.
As far as threat, the results of the sim are fairly unsurprising. Our damage buffs mostly offset the DPS loss of lost holy power generation. All this change has accomplished is to make the rotation less stable, with more empty GCDs. That's arguably more annoying, but it's not the devastating hit to our threat or survivability that many want to make it out to be.