Originally Posted by Fiola
Under the chain proc model, we expected 8.4 PPM regardless of the amount of haste rating, as long as we have WF. 0 haste rating -> expect 8.4 PPM. 350 haste rating -> expect 8.4 PPM. Gajillion haste rating -> expect 8.4 PPM.
|
I went over this statement and that's actually not necessarily true under "chain proc model". It's true for Model 1, but here's what actually happens with chain proc:
Example 1 (3.8 weapon speed):
A 3.8 weapon speed would generate 60/3.8 * 1.2 = 18.95 white attacks (autoattack + WF)
Under chain rule, you'd have: 3.8 * 7 / 60 = 44.3% chance to proc SoC, which at 18.95 attacks would give you 8.4 ppm.
Example 2 (2.0 weapon speed):
A 2.0 weapon speed would generate 60/2.0 * 1.2 = 36 white attacks (autoattack + WF)
Under chain rule, you'd have: 2.0 * 7 / 60 = 23.3% chance to proc SoC, which at 36 attacks would give you 8.4 ppm.
Looks ok so far?
Now we add the chain procs:
In example 1, those 8.4 ppm SoC, would each have a 20% chance to proc WF = 1.68 more WF attacks, which would in turn possibly chain proc 0.7448 more SoC attacks (at 44.3% chance each), putting the overall proc chance at
9.1448 ppm.
In example 2, those 8.4 ppm SoC, would each have a 20% chance to proc WF = 1.68 more WF attacks, which would in turn possibly chain proc 0.392 more SoC attacks (at 23.3% chance each), putting the overall proc chance at
8.792 ppm.
For accuracy (though it becomes insignificantly small if you recurse it past the first chain proc) I'll do the 2nd chain proc recursion:
Example 1: Taking the 0.7448 additional SoC attacks, would give you 0.14896 more WF attacks which would in turn give you (at 44.3% chance) 0.066 more SoC attacks, bringing the total after 2nd recursion to:
9.21 ppm
Example 2: Taking the 0.392 additional SoC attacks, would give you 0.0784 more WF attacks which would in turn give you (at 23.3% chance) 0.01829 more SoC attacks, bringing the total after 2nd recursion to:
8.81 ppm
As you can see the variance between the first chain proc and the 2nd is very small, so it can probably be ignored in the future.
Anyway, taking 3.8 speed and 2.0 speed pretty much gives us the extremes. This means that under chain proc model, with WF, your SoC proc chance will always lie somewhere between 9.21 ppm and 8.81 ppm (not the previously claimed 8.4 ppm, I think I never actually spelled it out in math was working with proc chances rather than ppm in all my previous examples).
Originally Posted by Fiola
|
Yea I've seen many people link that specific post from the wow boards thread and every time I have to shake my head and say: Procwatch is a "very" bad tool for this.
How do you know what conditions those attacks were made under? How do you know he didn't have WF for some of them? Is there "any" guarantee how he ran those tests, what other variables might have influenced them?
To me a procwatch image is just someone saying "hey look the clouds are forming a bunny in the sky!", I've used it a lot back then and I know how easy it is to mess up the results. Unless the results using procwatch are in a very controlled test and coming from a first hand source you can ask about those conditions, I really tend to disregard "look someone's procwatch said this" results.
Originally Posted by Fiola
|
A problem a figured about all our blasted lands tests: They might be very valid to calculate proc "%" out of the number of swings, but they should not be used to calculate "ppm" straight out of "duration". The reason being are all the parries you yourself are doing (you parrying the mobs attacks), giving you a lot of "up to 50% faster" swings after those parries during that "duration" (= more attacks than you expect).
Originally Posted by Fiola
I couldn't find the post you referred to here. I remember reading it, but the forums seem to have ate it. (I tried searching for posts by you: http://elitistjerks.com/search.php?s...8&pp=25&page=8 there's a gap between 1/25 and 2/4)
So we don't have the numbers for the 7 heroism test - but I'm gonna make some guesses - 7 heroisms is 280 seconds.
If we used a 3.8 AS weapon, 280 seconds -> 280 / 3.8 * 1.3 = 95.8 swings
expected (haste scales) SoC: 95.8 * 44.3% = 42 procs
SD = 4.9
expected (no haste scale) SoC: 95.8 * 34.1% = 32.7 procs
SD = 4.6
What was the actual # of procs? If there were, say, 35 procs, that looks like the "SoC does not scale with haste" proc #, but it's still within 2 SDs of the expected value for haste scaled SoC. (we can expect 68% of values within 1 SD, 95% within 2 SD) We still have some ambiguity.
|
The number of procs was actually exactly 35.
I edited it in pretty late so I guess you missed it:
I found a link for the "very rough test": http://elitistjerks.com/f31/t17193-p...12/#post524550
Take this with a bucketload of salt, still 30% hasted speed, it must have been a huge RNG messup if SoC did get increased ppm through haste yet I only got 7.3ppm (2.37 ppm off the assumed value if it did scale with haste).
Curious how this was on page 12, it's 154 pages later and we still didn't get anyone who can be arsed to run a decent test with a large enough data sample.
|
Originally Posted by Fiola
The main reason I want more numbers on this is that the chain proc model does not satisfactorily explain all the parses. There's a set of numbers with no haste but with WF, and we do not see the numbers suggested by the chain proc model. (ie: no hasted weapon, 100 normal swings, 30 WF, should see around 130 * .40 = 52 SoC procs; but we see 40~ SoC procs)
|
Well, lets not forget that, neither model will ever "satisfactorily explain all parses", since the crushing majority of the WWS logs we have here are only 6 mins or less and will suffer under RNG.
I'm not saying "this is a blanket excuse out of everything that doesn't match", but you need to always remember that what we're going from here at the moment is "correlation" of a lot of data "suggesting" the same, while fully admitting that a lot of it is messed up due to RNG.
What I mean to say by this is that "a lot of results" saying one thing or the other can strengthen (though not prove) either of our current working theories through correlation, but "one or two" results saying the opposite are not enough to disprove it (rng!).
Originally Posted by Meuble
Hey. I've achieved the first run. 40mn of bashing a mob with SoC on haste gear (162). No WF.
And while at it, a thought occured.
I'm trying to see if SoC PPM scales with haste. On a mob I'm bashing from front, and wich is attacking me... giving me chance to parry. And parries increase my attack speed for the next swing. Soooo... the modus operandi's quite fucked up, no?
Considering the amount of parries I get, I don't think it's negligible. I'm still gonna do the other run with WF and no haste. I'll try to post both of them later on this week end.
|
Yea this is very true and something I always regret with blasted lands test. Make sure you use the number of attacks and procs rather than the ppm in the end, since you will have too many attacks for that attackspeed/duration to get a correct ppm due to parries.
Also noting down the number of parries can be useful.
At 162 haste rating, assuming WF scales with haste, you should notice a ~10.279% increase in SoC procs or a 7.71954 ppm. My memory on statistics isn't that fresh, so maybe someone can state how many results would be needed in order to statistically rule out RNG when distinguishing between 7.71954 ppm and 7 ppm.
(Damn these posts just keep getting longer ;/ I really hope we get a conclusive blasted lands test so we can tell heads from tails.)