Here is some data I gathered on ShoR on the PTR:

Note the oddity at 3155. I double checked both it and 3282, and those results were repeatable.

I then extracted out the block value past 2400 and also back calculated the "effective" block value of the damage done:

Again, the line associated with 3155 has an oddity.

I tried using the interpolation algorithm and came up with three equations:
Ignoring last two lines: y = -0.0006x^2 + 0.9510x - 0.2712 ===> R^2 = 1
Ignoring only last line: y = -0.0006x^2 + 0.9507x - 0.2511 ===> R^2 = 1
Using all lines: y = -0.0006x^2 + 0.9360x + 0.6595 ===> R^2 = 0.9999999

y ==> effective block value
x ==> actual block value

So there are some interesting oddities.

As far as spec, I went up into protection for redoubt since I didn't have enough block value gear to get above 2400 without it, but I avoided any damage increasing talents like 1HWS or Crusade

NOTE: Some of the recorded damage values could be incomplete. I hit them for a while each time, but it could be just a really low probability of hitting the other min/max value. So there is some error there.


EDIT: Here is the chart for the "ignore last data point" fitting. Series 1 is the min values, and series 2 is the max values. I fit the min values for those equations.

Great data, Jere. Thank you for collecting it. To be clear, are you starting at 2400 total BV or 2400 additional BV beyond STR, intrinsic shield bv, etc?

2400 BV total, whether it comes from STR, shield, etc.

Nice work, jere.

Strictly speaking, it wasn't 3.5k static blockvalue, it was 3.5k blockvalue with Libram of Obstruction and the T8 4-piece bonus active, both of which can be kept up full-time in 3.2.

With talents, those two effects give 750 blockvalue, so if just want to max out your non-diminished blockvalue for ShR, you need 1650 static blockvalue -- not particularly hard to pick up in 3.2.

The Question
In essence, I want to know two things. First, I wanted to learn how the "improved" Hand of Reckoning performs on the PTR – how much damage does it do, whether and how often it crits, whether and how often it misses, etc. Ultimately, I am hoping the collective intelligence of this forum can answer the second, and for me more pertinent question, of how the old Exo/HoR combination compares to the new HoR.


The Tests
Each test was conducted on the Heroic Test Dummy in Exodar (the reason will be painfully clear to anyone who has tried to do an extended test of the sort in any other alliance city). I hit cast HoR on the test dummy 50 times in a row and recorded the results of each hit. For each test, I was unbuffed. Pertinent stats are as follows:
AP = 2698
Spell bonus damage = 799
Spell critical chance = 13.47%
Spell hit rating = 8.01% (210)

Results - Test 1 (attempts = 50)
Total Damage = 72,833
Average damage per hit = 1456.66
Number of Critical hits = 3 (6% chance)
Misses = 0 (0%)
Most frequently occurring hit = 1485 (28, or 56%)

Results - Test 2 (attempts = 50)
Total Damage = 69, 117
Average damage per hit = 1382.34
Number of Critical hits = 3 (6% chance)
Misses = 1 (2%)
Most frequently occurring hit = 1485 (22, or 44%)

Results – Test 3 (attempts = 50)
Total Damage = 72,391
Average damage per hit = 1447.82
Number of Critical hits = 6 (12% chance)
Misses = 0 (0%)
Most frequently occurring hit = 1485 (19, or 38%)


Combined Results (attempts = 150)
Total Damage = 214,341
Average damage per hit = 1428.94
Number of Critical hits = 12 (8% chance)
Misses = 1 (0.0067%)
Most frequently occurring hit = 1485 (69, or 46%)
Second most frequently occurring hit = 1336 (47. 31.33%)


Discussion
The new HoR appears to be reliable (it only missed once in 150 attempts), but I’m not sure that is enough to call this love. It does not comport with my expectations as far as damage and crit chance. Given the stats of the caster, one would expect the damage done to be 50% of the attack power (2968/2 = 1349). It was on average higher than that by +79. This suggests a + spell damage of 10%, but I don't think any +AP coefficient. I'm not loving that. (Note: exorcism is 15% from spellpower and 15% from attackpower I believe, but I don’t profess to completely understand all this – so please fill in if you know more). But what really puzzles me is the criticals. My spell crit was 13.47%, but I only got critical hits 8% of the time over 150 attempts. Extrapolating to a typical day in Ulduar, I really doubt that I use HoR 100 times in a 3-hour stint, so I could expect it to crit about 8 times a night. That is not thrilling.

Another thing I noted from the combat log is that HoR places a 2-second debuff aura on the target. I presume that is how long the “taunt” portion of the spell lasts. So, suppose you taunt a mob from max range. Two seconds is not a lot of time to follow up with a second range spell. That may not be enough time for the target to get in range of a judgment or a consecrate, and that leaves you hoping you aren’t caught with AS on cooldown. And I can easily imagine a situation in which that taunted target is running through AOE or getting hit by whomever had agro at the end of that two seconds, and before they are in range. I can see the mob turning around after that two seconds is up and one-shoting someone. Even then, your HoR is still on cooldown. Now we really need that AOE taunt.

So we are getting an HoR that applies a 2-second taunt aura, and IF the target does not already have you targeted, plus they are throwing in about half a regular exorcism, and without costing you a GCD (the HoR+Exo costs one). If the target already has you targeted, however, this offer is null and void. No more averting a threat situation. You will have to wait until the boss destroys someone’s face before you can use your new HoR. It will cost you in other ways too. We are effectively giving up exorcism’s place in our taking rotation (that's a reliable 2-5k holy damage every every 15 seconds). Remember, we can’t dodge, parry or block while casting. With a 1.5 second cast time you can’t use exo while tanking anything above 10-man Nax.

This is seeming less like an all-buff patch for us, at least to me. But I hope other contributions can add some light.

Don't forget that it's not really a TPS loss since Exorcism had no place in a proper 969 (unless you were skipping Holy Shield for some reason).
It's a loss of a useful ranged pickup, true, but threatwise, nothing lost.

Undead.

and it's actually a good thing it's being nerfed in that regard. Doing more DPS/TPS vs. certain mob categories was a bad idea to begin with so the more they do away with that the better.

I'll miss being able to proactively keep caster mobs at range glued to me when AS is on CD though.

You will reset your swing, so I don't know that an Exo while having a missed Swing + Seal hit is worth it for off-tanking. Most mobs can be taunted, so having second threat doesn't seem as important.

Initial impressions:

The lower crit rate may be related to boss dummy bugs and/or the boss-level target crit supression that has been noted for melee and spell attacks in WoTLK, I'll run some tests on the PTR tomorrow. The 10% anomaly, 1-handed weapon spec perhaps?

The two-second aura that HoR applies is, as stated, just the standard taunt "force attack" aura. The taunt still does what it is supposed to do - set your threat equal to the target's current target. Assuming the mob has more than a whiff of aggro on it, the healer/DPS still has to exceed 130% of your new threat level to pull the mob off you.

What mod is that on the left in the screenshot?

Also, does the second 33% hit keep happening each time or does it only happen once after 5 stacks are reached? I'm curious as to what the effect of two prot pallys with JotJ judging one target would be. Any thoughts?

As with all judgements, if two pallies are judging the same, then the last one to hit will be the effective one. Given that Thunderclap and JotJ don't stack, I can't see how two JotJ's can stack either, if that's what you're referring to (although it would be nice if they did admittedly).

Perhaps I'm mistaken. But I thought instant-cast spells did not reset swing timer. While it may be unorthodox, I do work exorcism into the rotation, as well as Hammer of Wrath when the target is sufficiently low in HP to permit it. I still manage to always have HS and a Judgement dropping every time they are available. I guess I didn't realize I was in a minority of people who use Exo so regularly and in this way.

Exo will no longer be instant cast in 3.2 (1.5s cast time and works on players again) and so casting it will reset the swing timer. This is the 3.2 thread.

Correct. And that is my point really. We aren't just gaining a slightly better HoR, we are losing are really effective Exo - really effective for threat even when not paired up with HoR.

As to the other point above regarding the debuff: yes, that is how it works currently. I'm simply pointing out the fact that we are losing the ability to follow it up with an instant-cast exo as a quick threat-builder or even as an 'oh crap' measure. I have experienced enough situations where this has been the case that I think it's worth questioning is all. I'm hoping more people will go experiment on the PTR and prove my fears unfounded or create enough evidence to get blizz to reevaluate the proposed changes.

But you're gaining, effectively, a free half-strength Exo any time you taunt something that's not attacking you ("free" in terms of both mana and time).

You're proposing a situation where...

• the damage done by the new HoR is not enough to subsequently hold threat, but...
• the damage done by Exorcism would have been, and...
• there's nothing you can do to build more threat on the mob within 3 seconds despite having an additional GCD available.

I'll grant that it's possible, sure, but I can't imagine it happening very often at all.

EDIT: What's your rotation then? You can fill up all your GCDs with Judge/HS/Cons/ShR/HotR, and I don't see why you'd want to drop any of these for Exorcism, save the one exception I mentioned above.

Sorry, screwed up editing.

The place I will miss it the most is when I'm doing 10 man Gluth zombie fodder. A nice wide circle and hitting each new zombie with Exorcism as it spawns means I never have to stop moving. I never got hit anymore when doing chow duty, and now I don't think that it's going to be so easy. I just don't expect HoR to be able to out threat the healing aggro with 1 application like Exo can.

Doesn't the new sov more than make up for any threat loss from losing exo? The only loss I see is on very specific pulls(/spawns) that you can't chase after, can't risk using rd/as on and you need to pull two specific mobs while being hit hard enough that casting exo is out of the question. This could hurt in thorim's arena, but I can't think of any other situation where we could use more ranged threat. If you're ranged tanking you also get to use two hors for every exo(about), which should still be enough if you're ranged tanking to begin with.

I was under the impression that it was to make up for the loss of 30% scaling on SHield of the Righteous. . How much of a nerf this is will depend on how little block value your gear has at any one time - but in my case, that's 0, and I'd expect most others to be pretty similar. I've not looked into how much of a buff/nerf the changes are to my TPS/DPS mathematically yet.

Sacred Shield: This buff will no longer have any effect if the target is another player engaged in a duel. In addition, the heal from this buff will no longer cause the paladin to stand, and it is no longer possible for two paladins to both have the spell active on one target.

No point putting up SS on ourselves anymore if there's another pally present. Now, 3 points in Divinity or Reckoning?

The loss of sacred shield stacking is a little irksome, though its such a powerful ability I'm a little surprised it still hasn't been nerfed to oblivion. I think the impact on specing will depend on your role. The point in Div Sac is still an immense amount of utility for 1 point, but the extra 2 in Div Guard probably won't be worth it if you aren't shielding yourself (ie. you're the MT and have a pally healer) since its extremely unlikely you'll have time to shield anyone else.

However, as an OT, DG looks a lot more attractive. You're a lot less likely to have a dedicated pally healer (certainly still possible though) and may or may not be busy during certain segments of the fight. If you're doing, say, Kologarn, and you're handling the Rubble, you could probably be shielding the tank(s) on Kologarn if your raid is short on pally healers.

Even if you were the MT, you could SS the off-tank (assuming you had a Pally healer). Fights still require more than one tank in 3.2.