Originally Posted by nadoo
If the difference between MF and MB 2 orbs is less that the difference between MB 2 orbs and MB 3 orbs then you should wait for 3 orbs.
(...)
Also why are you talking about damage per cast? All you've done is take away the time factor which prevents you accurately comparing abilities with different cast times. You certainly can not compare MF and MB in any meaningful way using dpc as you've suggested in the quote above.
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You may compare MF and MB using DPCT, in fact that's what you did (not very well), maybe thinking it was a dps based.
My SF dps is 2017 and it has a 15 sec duration so:
2017*15= 30255 damage per cast
30255/1.5 = 20170 dps
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SF's dps cannot be both 2017 and 20170. 30 255 (damage) / 1.5 (casting time) = DPCT.
I advice you staying in a pure damage view, then in the end switching to dps ou DPCT if you want, but don't mix that quick.
You corrected somebody claiming he was not accounting time (which I don't believe), then not accounting time yourself.
I use your values, shorter :
SF's damages : 30 255 damage.
SF's base dps : 30 255 / 180, 168 dps.
SF's DPCT : 30 255 / 1.5, 20170 dpct.
One MF's tick that crit decrease SF's cd by 10 seconds. You must evaluate how much MF you need in order to have SF available (time passes while MFing). The difference between the 2 cooldowns gives you the DPS gain (not as simple as 30 255 / avg_Cooldown - 30 255 / 180, because you cast less MF when casting more SF, you must work with DPCT, search for TiFi's work in here).
About your work on crit, I think an easier way is to multiply by (1 + %crit x 1.09). Way easier than probs.
My MB is a 1.4 sec cast and average hit is 4636 so dps is: 4636/1.4= 3311dps
With 1 orb = 4414dps
With 2 orbs = 5518dps
With 3 orbs = 6622dps
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It is not a dps difference. If you must wait in order to have 3 orbs, MB's dps is damage_MB / avg_time_between_2_MB.
There's no way Mind Blast does 6622 dps in your performances.
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edit : Method
MF does mf_basedamage in 3 or 2.5 sec with 4T10 (no haste).
MB does mb_basedamage in 1.5 sec (no haste, nor orbs).
At this point, casting MB instead of MF results in a local difference of mb_basedamage - mf_basedamage x 1.5 / 2.5, in term of damages without accounting crit.
With crit it's (mb_basedamage - mf_basedamage x 1.5 / 2.5) x (1 + %crit x 1.09).
So, if you cast MB (without orbs) every avg_time_between_2_mb, the dps gain or loss is
(mb_basedamage - mf_basedamage x 1.5 / 2.5) x (1 + %crit x 1.09) / avg_time_between_2_mb.
But of course, what about orbs, and Shadowfiel's cd ?
If you cast a MB instead of a MF, you lose 1.5 / 2.5 x 3 (ticks) chances of proccing orbs.
The damage from an orb is (0.34 + 0.043 x (mastery - 8)) x mb_base_damage x (1 + %crit x 1.09).
The damage from two orbs is juste twice that and 3 orbs three time that.
For each tick, you have 18% chances proccing one, so the expected numbers of orbs you may have from this (non-integer) number of ticks is 1.5 / 2.5 x 3 x 18%.
And so, the average orb's damage lost from casting a MB and not a MF is
1.5 / 2.5 x 3 x 18% x (0.34 + 0.043 x (mastery - 8)) x mb_base_damage x (1 + %crit x 1.09).
And for dps lost, divide it by avg_time_between_2_mb.
Casting Shadowfiel instead of mind flay results in a local difference of sf_basedamage - mf_basedamage x 1.5 / 2.5.
With crit, if crit is shared between you and your pet, multiply by (1 + %crit x 1.09).
So the dps lost or gained is (sf_basedamage - mf_basedamage x 1.5 / 2.5) x (1 + %crit x 1.09) / time_between_2_shadowfiels.
Anyway, if you crit 18 times with MF, you earn a free shadowfiel, and so (sf_basedamage - mf_basedamage x 1.5 / 2.5) x (1 + %crit x 1.09) damages more.
So, with 1.5 / 2.5 x 3 ticks of MF, you lose in average (1.5 / 2.5 x 3 x %crit) crit ticks, which is a portion of what's needed to gain the damage bonus from an additionnal shadowfiel.
Thus you lose
1.5 / 2.5 x 3 x %crit / 18 x (sf_basedamage - mf_basedamage x 1.5 / 2.5) x (1 + %crit x 1.09).
And, rougthly, that's it.
By casting MB instead of MF, you gain and/or lose, in term of DAMAGE,
(mb_basedamage - mf_basedamage x 1.5 / 2.5) x x (1 + %crit x 1.09)
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1.5 / 2.5 x 3 x 18% x (0.34 + 0.043 x (mastery - 8)) x mb_base_damage x (1 + %crit x 1.09)
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1.5 / 2.5 x 3 x %crit / 18 x (sf_basedamage - mf_basedamage x 1.5 / 2.5) x (1 + %crit x 1.09)
If the total is positive, cast MB on each cd, and by this gameplay gain total / avg_time_between_2_mb dps (probably nothing).
If it's negative, cast MB the later you can, and try not to lose orbs (2 orbs strategy is less risky than 3).
Dps from orbs only depending on the mastery, and the frequency of your MF ticks, thus quite constant (little better with a 3 orbs strategy than with a on cooldown strategy, because you cast relatively more mind flay, but that has already been incorporated in MF calculation, so Orbs DPS is considered constant whatever the gameplay).