Originally Posted by Jeges
You're dividing crit values by "direct heals", which include crits. You should be dividing crits by "hits". And no, I was not including Divine Aegis. DA obviously makes crits more valuable, even if the crit portion itself is overheal. My point was that even the healing portion of crits tends to be about 2x what the healing portion of non-crits is. This is something I've seen as Holy and as Discipline, across many different encounters and many different repetitions. It surprised the hell out of me, I confess, since it goes against the accepted wisdom, but empirically it looks pretty reliable - at least for my own data, and generally speaking for the other logs I've seen. Part of it is due to intellect procs raising both the power and the likelihood to crit of spells. Part of it is due to the meta gem making crits 2.06x. But those are both small effects.
|
I see what you mean. What you are seeing can only be two things: 1) An artifact caused by the use of healing cooldowns and temporary raid crit buffs during active healing stages. These don't make crit better they make it worse. Intellect buffs contribute a tiny tiny increase in spell damage 2) Lack of statistical power due to the small sample size and low crit rates. I.e. what you are seeing is just random variation (lots of lucky crits on low health targets) and is not actually statistically significant, meaning it should disappear upon increasing sample size.
Look at this log for example:
Details for Dailybreeze - 26-12 19:41 - Unholy Trinity - World of Logs
And this log:
Details for Izumî - 02-01 20:54 - Blow - World of Logs
Looking at the top parses is biased because these selected for high HPS, they are enriched for those lucky cases where crit helped more than it should. Looking at lots of different logs all over the spectrum you clearly see that the only spell with consistently high crit/heal ratio is PoH and we know that this is bad news for crit, because it means increased contribution of inner focus to low overhealing crits.
100th log:
Details for Trinitysin - 13-12 00:12 - Oto Logs - World of Logs
150th log:
Details for Vintoran - 16-12 18:47 - Predicted - World of Logs
200th log:
Details for Vintoran - 16-12 18:47 - Predicted - World of Logs
224th log:
Details for Evilkyro - 19-12 20:28 - Luce - World of Logs
(225 has divine star) and there is no 250th.
I selected these essentially at random. Looking through the briefly will show you that only PoH has a consistently high avg crit to heal ratio.
However the most important thing to realise and what I tried to explain in my previous posts is that the avg crit to heal ratio is not linearly dependent on the actual contribution from crits. Just because average crit is twice as high as the average heal it does not mean that crits contribute 100%. This is because only the top half the heal is the contribution from the crit. The presence of low and high overhealing phases, lucky streaks with low overhealing crits and the use of cooldowns in low overhealing phases, artifically raise the average crit heal, much more than they raise the actual contribution of crit.
I will show you some examples:
Look at this for example from my own logs when I know I had a cooldown
Details for Shaarra - 02-01 22:42 - After Hours - World of Logs
check this segment:
Details for Shaarra - 02-01 22:42 - After Hours - World of Logs
and look at the log for cascade:
[22:59:07.697] Shaarra casts Cascade on Burgenpils
[22:59:08.749] Shaarra Cascade Burgenpils +47435
[22:59:10.355] Shaarra Cascade Whiteredbull +42880 (O: 9276)
[22:59:10.355] Shaarra Cascade Sèraphim +51995 (O: 161)
[22:59:11.586] Shaarra Cascade Nerad +24441 (O: 21457)
[22:59:11.586] Shaarra Cascade Doomguard +*43164* (O: 42789)
[22:59:11.586] Shaarra Cascade Undu +41725
[22:59:11.586] Shaarra Cascade Naghtorin +41725
[22:59:12.773] Shaarra Cascade Fantomen +0 (O: 41725)
[22:59:12.773] Shaarra Cascade Kérberos +0 (O: 41725)
[22:59:13.148] Shaarra Cascade Mindbender +0 (O: 41725)
[22:59:13.148] Shaarra Cascade Risen Ally +0 (O: 41725)
[22:59:13.148] Shaarra Cascade Bõllex +*52783* (O: 33171)
[22:59:13.148] Shaarra Cascade Ashghost +0 (O: 45898)
[22:59:35.262] Shaarra casts Cascade on Undu
[22:59:35.723] Shaarra Cascade Undu +27014
[22:59:37.333] Shaarra Cascade Whiteredbull +42880 (O: 4025)
[22:59:37.333] Shaarra Cascade Rinotzk +4118 (O: 42786)
[22:59:38.152] Shaarra Cascade Nylaki +40179
[22:59:38.394] Shaarra Cascade Shaarra +46904
[22:59:38.545] Shaarra Cascade Naghtorin +46905
[22:59:38.948] Shaarra Cascade Nerad +51595
[22:59:39.353] Shaarra Cascade Bõllex +28953 (O: 12841)
[22:59:39.353] Shaarra Cascade Kérberos +0 (O: 42401)
[22:59:40.180] Shaarra Cascade Sèraphim +0 (O: 46905)
[22:59:40.180] Shaarra Cascade Meätball +39177 (O: 7728)
[22:59:40.180] Shaarra Cascade Gosak +0 (O: 46904)
[22:59:40.180] Shaarra Cascade Biermeister +36834 (O: 10071)
[22:59:40.180] Shaarra Cascade Kurrelgyre +0 (O: 46905)
[22:59:40.180] Shaarra Cascade Elooss +46905
How lucky was that? None of the crits overhealed completely even though most of the normal heals did, but what is the actual benefit of crit here: Only one crit actually had any benefit and that was for about 11k. So despite crits contributing 95947k to my total healing only 11k of that was the actual benefit of crit heals over normal heals.
7% of the heals are crits but the benefit of those crits to overall healing is just 1.5%. Nevertheless the average heal to average crit ratio is 1.9 to 1!!
If you looked at the average crit to heal ratio you might have thought that crit was nearly at 100% efficiency, but in fact it didn't even reach 20% efficiency. If I had zero crit I would not notice any change in my healing.
The contribution of smart heals, inner focus and cooldown usage during low healing phases, artificially raises crit averages, but that does not mean criticals contribute more.
To give you another example I return to the rank 3 report from 25hc vizier in HoF and specifically this segment
Details for Th�*llo - 11-12 15:33 - Ellui - World of Logs
Crit healing total is 154671 but only 49 200 was the actual benefit of crit. 15.6% of the heals were crits but the actual benefit of crit was just 7.5% of the total. That is 56% of the benefit we expect for this crit rate. Ratio of avg crits to heals 1.670590636908
Lets look at a high HPS segment
Details for Th�*llo - 11-12 15:33 - Ellui - World of Logs
1 out of 9 crits hit a low deficit target, while 7 out of 27 normal heals hit a low deficit target. This is a fairly lucky event for crit.
The average crit to average heal ratio is 2.7 to 1
crtis contribute 261778, which is 48.96% of total crit heals and 23% of the total healing.
25% of the heals are crits, so the value of the crits is 115% of maximal, but the ratio of crits to heals is 2.7:1, when given the actual value of crits we should expect roughly 2:1
Now lets have a look at the end of the fight, another high HPS phase:
Details for Th�*llo - 11-12 15:33 - Ellui - World of Logs
125288 contribution from crits, which is roughly 30% of the total crit healing and 8.8% of the total healing. 22% of the heals are crits so we expect 18% contribution, so the value of crit is just 49% its maximal value. The avg crit to heal ratio is 1.5:1
Thus the relationship between the average crit to heal ratio is very difficult to predict, because the system has several variables it is difficult to account for the full variance without fairly humongous numbers. So looking at the average crit to heal ratio does not necessarily tell you what the actual value of crit is even if the ratio is 2:1. It is basically a very bad way of determining crit value. Averaging things is always dangerous as it eliminates variance information, which is pretty important in determining whether your results are accurate.
Looking at the average overheal is a good way to find if crit is useful or not. High OH values automatically mean low contribution from crit except in extreme cases where the vast majority of your heals either overheal completely or do not overheal at all.
In general you can expect crit to have a 20-50% lower value than the maximum.