I also don't think it makes much sense to discount it because it's random - ISB uptime is random, crit is random, resists are random... they all average out in the end. If its average damage (fight dependent, of course) puts it above the alternatives, it's worth using. (I personally won't likely be seeing a Skull so I expect to stick with it for a long time.)

Yea I'm not really concerned about the general idea of it being random, but if 9 out of 10 fights it gives something like 10-15 dps and only one 25 dps, then it makes no sense to replace a clearly better trinket.

Let me emphasize this.

If your options are Skull/Timbal/Hex, it's not clear at all.

If your options don't include one of the other two, it's absolutely clear.

*Given that* Skull is so close to Timbal's in terms of power, and given that it's only close for spriests, there's a very solid argument to be made re: not taking a Skull if you don't already have one unless your other DPS casters already have it.

9 out of 10 fights, Timbal's seems to give ~20-22 DPS (no CoS/CoS being the bounds there). I have some lower numbers, but you'll note: no ISB on those numbers (minus Rage, which is such a short fight that random chance will produce relatively large swings), and no CoS on *any* of my numbers. We're looking at ~85-90 equivalent +dmg from the trinket in this case, which is solidly tied for best trinket with Hex and Skull (ignoring hit). Hex is going to be stronger in short fights, due to the on-use nature and how it interacts with fights of (e.g.) 2.5 minute duration. Timbal's is likely to be stronger in long fights and motion fights.

I decide how I compose my posts, not you, please respect that - your comment is fresh.

When can we expect that?


Aemish

Actually, you may want to read the forum rules. The mods decide whether you get to post at all or not, so you may want to respect their views on the matter.

Skull is cemented for now, due to the huge +hit bonus. My choice is thus Hex or Timbal, and from most wws I've seen, 20-25 is a rare peak for timbal (and mind you 25/0.6 is 41.67, +44 from static dmg equals 85.67, still inferior choice to Hex), with the majority of fights proc being worth around 15 dps, which is really underwhelming.

And what you mentioned about short fights, isn't exactly true. Any fight with a length which maximizes hex uptime will yield very very high results for hex (2 min avg, 2min20 high, 4 min avg, 4min20 high etc). And timbal...motion fights significantly lower its procrate, due to losing MF as a proc factor, so its value will drop there also.

But still...a raid with a decent ISB uptime (hopefully next week it will be for us) will boost timbal a lot. I really want to see tons and tons of wwses from all kinds of fights about timbal though...lots and lots of data is the thing that will bring the truth, not all this talking and speculations based on 5 parses.

Looking at 3 full raid days (a bit over 12hours) worth of Brutallus attempts the Timbal's proc came out to ~23dps average for me. I got this by taking the total shadow bolt damage divided by dps time which is conveniently displayed in seconds on wws.

This was with maledictioned CoS, 2 destruction locks, 1 affliction and 1 shadow priest. ISB uptime 73% according to the simulator on the warlock spreadsheet site. Also of note were that I had 0%, 0.5% and 3.1% resist rate on it over these 3 raids. I was grouped with an elemental draenei shaman so was hitcapped without shadow focus so I think it's pretty safe to assume it uses you actual spellhit not counting shadow focus. So I guess the value will slightly drop as we get rid of hit for haste on the sunwell gear.

0.6dps per damage is about what I get too if I use the spreadsheet and put in sunwell level gear and full raid buffs and debuffs. Even slightly more if I put in completely full sunwell gear which I think turned out to be 410 haste ~1700 dmg full raid buffed.

Using these values I'd agree with the conclusion that Skull>Hex>Timbal's>rest

It has always been around 0.65 to 0.6 in ded's simulations, which are the only real work I've seen to determine dps scaling. Where do you get 0.5 from?

And the wws links I posted have 15-20ish dps of the proc WITH malediction CoS and 1 destro lock (so moderate ISB uptime), and still the proc is not impressive at all. 2-3 destro locks will hopefully raise it a bit.

And about Hex - yes, the "excess" bonus uptime diminishes as the fight goes up, but in the limit (worst case scenario), it converges to the average value, not below. Let's see it:
2 min - 1/6 - value of trinket is 88.17 pseudodmg
2 min 20 - 2/7 - 113.28
4 min - 1/6 - 88.17
4 min 20 - 1/4 - 105.75
...
10 min - 1/6 - 88.17
10 min 20 - 6/31 - 93.83
...

As you can see, even in a 500 min fight, worst case scenario the trinket is going to be worth 88.17 pseudodmg. In a typical fight, lot more. And timbal barely reaches the average of Hex.

I think I started throwing around the 0.5 number, which was really just a back-of-the-envelope calculation. We should probably do some more serious theorycrafting to figure out what the actual tradeoff is with standard "mostly black temple" gear.

If I was a raid leader discussing loot as we progressed to Illidan with an eye to doing Sunwell, I'd have to share Kalman's viewpoint. Skull is better for mages/warlocks -- mages also benefit from cooldown stacking with it in Molten Fury range.

Having said that, I'm very glad I have a Skull, because it's not easy finding points to put into Shadow Focus in Sunwell. Haste and the right gear makes having 5/5 Improved Mind Blast a good idea. Improved Vampiric Embrace is extremely useful for progression fights -- the name of the game is stability when you're learning a new boss, and usually the focus for stability is healing. Kalecgos, Brutallus, Felmyst -- all 3 of those fights we can do non-trivial group healing that can actually be planned around, especially in the case of Brutallus. In the standard 14/0/47 spec with both those talents maxed, that only leaves me with 2/5 in Shadow Focus.

In the abstract, I'd consider Skull/HSH the best combo, but from the math being postulated here, Timbal's is a worthy option. One benefit to Timbal's is it's a passive trinket -- one less thing to watch for.

Has anyone done any theorycrafting on Sorcerer's Alchemist Stone?

My alt shadow priest is Alchemy/Tailoring and I was wondering it if was worth it over Timbals or Hex head.

Well it has 63 spelldamage, passive. The potion increase is completely meaningless for damage calculations. As such I would rank it below Darkmoon which you could approximate to 80 spelldamage

Whats the best way to use Destro Pots for maximizing damage? Lining it up with some sort of haste effect (drums and/or bloodlust) should be ideal as that allows you to cast more spells while the destruction pots' buff is active. Is it worth casting Devouring Plague while its up? Or is that a waste of a GCD that should be spend mindflaying (or MB/SW:D)?

I'm getting the impression that we're going to have to lose IF and 1 in Meditation (or I guess 2 in Meditation for Undead because of the IF/DP interaction? Quick calculation says ~31 mp5 for IF/DP versus ~40 per point in Meditation, so maybe not) in full Sunwell gear, and plan around 4/5 Focus. A Skull or being draenei helps a lot in this respect, cutting down your hit requirements. Worst comes to worst, we can always go 5/5, dropping another point out of Disc for 11/0/50 and go back to chaining pots.

That's my key point re: Skull, incidentally. Other caster classes don't have the option of dropping points from non-DPS talents to increase their hit. We do.

If you're not Draenei, then the ideal gear set will require 5/5 shadow focus even with the skull. So yeah, just as useful for shadow priests as it is for mages and warlocks.

No, it doesn't. 80 hit without a skull is a 5/5 setup, and you can see the 80 hit setup in my gear post. Your list failed to include Nethervoid.

So basically every SP that steps foot into T6?

The other thing about the Sunwell gear set is it may take a long time to get it all. A lot of the items on that list are simply better for mages/locks than they are for us. [Amulet of Unfettered Magics] is neat, but it's better yet for a mage/lock. [Sunfire Robe] is a big upgrade for us, but it's even bigger for mages/locks since the crit isn't being wasted. The only reason I picked up [Pantaloons of Growing Strife] is that other casters have a better option off Brutallus, [Leggings of Calamity] -- otherwise I'd have been passing those as well. The short of it is we're the poorest DPS class of the casters, and when you have mages and locks pushing 2.4k DPS and beyond, it makes sense to give the upgrades to them first. I won't be rolling for a Wand of the Demonsoul until it's just spriests left. One could say that EJ does an informal loot council though with loot lately, so YMMV for your guild of course. I prefer to look at the bigger picture at any rate.

edit: This was kinda a response to Kalman regarding loot options in Sunwell looking ahead from the Skull question.

Well, yes. There's a line between "This is better for others" and "I have pushed the button adequately. I would like my bacon, please." You have to figure out for yourself where that line sits, for you and your guild. Growing Strife are an excellent example of somewhere you simply shouldn't feel guilt - they're best in slot for you, and other DPS have a better option. Unfettered Magics, as a counter-example, is something I'd feel absolutely secure in waiting on.

Trash drops... well, I have a bad record with them *ever* dropping for me when I pass them to others (screw you, Rittsyn), so odds are I'll be picking up the robe and wand when I can.

I've been thinking about the extreme amount of threat we're generating in Sunwell content due to the amount of healing Vampiric Embrace can and should do. Threat is usually not an issue on Kalecgos due to split DPS and the magic of taunt, although before the first portal it can be an issue. I've pulled aggro while standing in melee range of Brutallus (but not while at range), and I'm DPS capped on Felmyst even when Vampiric Embrace is only up for phase 1. And while I haven't tried the twins yet, I know there's a reasonable amount of raid AoE damage there as well.

What I'm considering is whether it's worth speccing points into Silent Resolve, since currently the talent reduces the threat of Vampiric Embrace (although Shadow Affinity does not). It's hard to estimate the amount of real healing Vampiric Embrace will do because that's heavily based on the fight. Looking at Brutallus parses, I healed for 45% of my damage (for each 100 damage dealt, I healed 45 health). Kalecgos appeared to be around 85%, and while those numbers might not parse well, healing is only done when damage is done, so the percent should still be correct. I don't have Felmyst parses, but I'd assume there's at least as much healing as Kalecgos since the incoming damage happens more frequently. My estimate for Felmyst is 100%. For the record, the theoretical maximum for no over-healing at all is 125%: 25% of your damage times 5 party members.

For the purpose of this analysis, I'll just consider Shadow Affinity and Silent Resolve, since all other modifiers (salvation, tranquil air) apply equally to both threat sources. The question is how much X points in Silent Resolve will increase your threat cap, assuming 1 damage averages H healing.

Each point of damage will cause .75 threat from damage plus H * .5 * (1 - 0.04 * X) threat from healing. (Remember, healing causes half the threat damage causes.) T is the total threat one point of damage causes.

T(X) = .75 + H * (.5 - 0.02*X)

To compute the changed threat rate, compute 1 - T(X) / T(0): the ratio in threat with and without the talent. This number is the equivalency factor relative to a talent that says "reduce all threat by a fixed percent".

R = 1 - T(X) / T(0)
R = 1 - (.75 + H * (.5 - 0.02*X)) / (.75 + H * .5)
R = (.75 + H*.5 - .75 - H*.5 + H*0.02*X) / (.75 + H*.5)
R = X * (H*0.02) / (.75 + H*.5)
R = X * (H*0.04) / (1.5 + H)

So each point in silent resolve is equivalent to a H*.04 / (1.5 + H) percent reduction in threat. Here are those reduction values for different values of H:

H = .5: R = 1%
H = 1: R = 1.6%
H = 1.25: R = 1.8%

With three points spent, you get a total threat reduction of almost 5% on a fight like Felmyst, and a 3% reduction on Brutallus. I can't really justify 5/5 and forcing the holy priests to fort the raid. The question is... Is the small bit of threat reduction worth losing Improved Shield, another marginally useful but mostly bad talent?

Are you definitely sure that Silent Resolve applies to the healing threat from VE?
It's possible the patch note was simply refering to the (small) threat that landing the spell itself adds.

Some testing either way might be useful.

Antiarc tested it. It's confirmed.