The new talent adds yet more bloat to the end of the disc tree. 2 more points to spend are points you have to remove from other talents that were vital for getting high HPS as disc.
Lets have a quick look at the maths
DA on total healing
If you heal for x without crits then with c crit rate the with crit its x*(1-c)+ 1.5x*c = x(1-c+1.5c) = x*(1+0.5c)
The shield adds is c*0.3*1.5x = 0.45x*c. Hence it adds 0.45x*c / x*(1+0.5c) = 0.45*c/(1+0.5c) of your total HPS.
At 0.25 crit you are looking at 10% your total HPS
Adding 6% more crit takes crit rate to 0.32 which now means aegis adds 12.4% of your total HPS.
At 20% crit DA adds 8.2% of total HPS
At 26% crit DA adds 10.4%
I would say in the crit region we can expect disc priests to be in 6% crit increases absorption via DA by 2.2-2.4% of your total HPS, with the assumption that DA feeds of total not effective heal. If your HPS ~ DPS on the tank the loss is relatively small. DA also returns mana at 0.55-0.6% of total HPS, which at say 2k HPS is actually a fairly significant 11-12 mana per second.
6% more healing would increase total HPS by 6% and hence would increase DA absorption in the same scenario by 6%.
Thus disc loses 3% DR on tank, ~4% absorption from aegis. In terms of actual healing 6% more crit is nowhere near as good for effective HPS as 6% healing.
I think it comes up to a fairly significant nerf.
If you have overheal too then the average crit is not 150% of the average normal heal and effective HPS is lower than total HPS. I estimate 7.1-8.9% of effective HPS (best case to worst case) at 25% crit. This rises to 8.9-11% of effective HPS at 32% crit. I.e. a 1.8-2.1% increase. I think 2% of effective HPS is probably a fair estimate. 6% healing would certainly translate to more than a 2% increase in effective HPS. Again the 6% healing from grace adds a better return for aegis than 6% more crit and on top we lose 3% DR on the tank.
On top of that consider that effective HPS < total HPS < tank HPS in any senario and in a multihealer on tank senario its effective HPS << total HPS < tank HPS.
Overal if aegis works on total HPS, then its a sizeable nerf. If aegis works on effective HPS its a huge nerf.
I honestly don't understand why blizzard decided to hit disc on the head with the nerfbat. Have beta reports shown that disc is too strong?
I have ofcourse overlooked the possibility that the 6% crit on weakened soul is universal for all tank healers. That might spice the talent up.
I think that the new talent + grace should be rolled into a single 2 pointer which adds 3% crit on weaked soul and 50% chance to apply the grace effect per point. The grace effect is a single 3% healing 3% DR effect lasting 15 seconds. 6% more crit on weakened soul and 3% healing 3% DR for 15seconds on each heal may be ok.
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Currently I would spec this 17/54 and pass up guardian spirit and a point in test of faith to get improved inner fire. While many people love guardian spirit I have never liked clicky trinkets or "oh Shit" skills on long cooldowns as they never seem to be available when really needed or I just plain forget to use them as the crisis hits. Dropping a point in test of faith costs me 3% larger heals and 5% crit on low health targets but for this I get the 60% increase in spellpower from improved inner fire. Which is a constant extra 72 spellpower to all offensive and defensive spells or 145 added to your greater heal each and every time. This, in my opinion is worth the trade-off, especially at lower gear levels.
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145 healing on a 8.5k heal is 1.7% before overheal. Losing a point from Test of faith means 5% less healing and 3% less crit on proc.
If we stipulate for gheal on the tank
x1 heals at <50% (test of faith procs should not significant overheal)
x2 heals with no overheals
and x3 heals with overheal
Then you have x1 heals that have 5% more healing and 3% more crit
vesus x2+x1 heals with 145 more healing.
if average heal is H then we have x1*H*(1.05*1.015 - 1) from test of faith and (x2+x1)*145 from imp inner fire.
Assuming 8k as the average heal we come up with 526*x1 compared with 145(x2+x1)
In order for 145*x2+145*x1 > 526*x1 we need 145*x2 > 381*x1 i.e. x2/x1 > 2.63. If you are getting 2.63 more heals without overheal than sub50% heals then 3 ranks of imp IF gives you more return than 1 rank in test of faith.
rank on rank you need 7.8 heals with no overheal for every sub50% heal to break even. Given how big heals are I would say this is a very very rare senario. Also remember that test of faith applies to all heals not just gheal and DPS are much more likely to receive sub50% heals.
I think maxing Imp InF before maxing test of faith is poor use of talents. The real question here is 2/2 healing prayers, 1/2 healing prayers + GS or 2/3 Imp InF. Personally I would go for 1/2 Healing prayers + GS.