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Old 11/10/08, 8:19 PM   #151
 Valoran
absit invidia
 
Human Rogue
 
Shadowsong (EU)
Originally Posted by metapseudo View Post
I need an explanation on this please. Tooltip says that chance for getting SoL is based on crit chance of FH, GH and BH.
Surge of Light
"Your spell criticals".

Thus spells which hit more than one target (and thus have a higher chance of getting a single crit) have a higher chance of proccing SoL.

fake edit: waaaay too slow.

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Old 11/11/08, 6:52 AM   #152
Promethia
Piston Honda
 
Blood Elf Priest
 
Kilrogg
Originally Posted by constantius View Post
XI b. Value of Intellect and Spirit
One of the big questions many priests ask is "how much spirit / intellect should I have", with the secondary question "where is the point at which it makes sense to stop stacking one and start stacking the other".

...

Now, the conversion numbers are as follows:
  1. 1% crit = 166.67 intellect
  2. 1 intellect = 0.0125 Mp5 (Replenishment)
  3. 1 intellect = 0.208 Mp5 (6 minute fight, mana pool size)
  4. 1 intellect = 0.083 Mp5 (6 minute fight, shadowfiend)
  5. 1 intellect = 0.114 Mp5 (Holy, 6 minute fight, IHC procs from crit, split 50/50 Flash and GHeal)
  6. 1 intellect = 0.017 Mp5 (Disc, 6 minute fight, Divine Aegis absorb crits procing Rapture)
  7. 1 intellect = 0.194 Mp5 (Meditation, 1000 spirit assumed, 80% I5SR)
  8. 1 spirit = 0.388 Mp5 (Meditation, 1000 intellect assumed, 80% I5SR)
  9. 1 spirit = 0.25 spellpower (Holy, Spiritual Guidance)

...

Disc Crit
Every percent to crit grants a 30% of heal shield through Divine Aegis. 2.5% of maximum mana is granted back to the healer as mana return, assuming full absorption. Let's go "best case" and assume that all shields are used fully (full absorption), so every single time you crit, you get back 2.5% of your maximum mana. Disc is going to have higher number of total casts than Holy due to Penance, so let's ballpark it at 40 casts per minute, i.e. 40 chances to crit and proc a Divine Aegis shield which is then absorbed and returns mana.

Theorycrafting has found that mana return from Rapture is ~
[code]
0.01035*max mana/basemana*amount healed
[/lcode]
which I am going to assume, for the moment, applies to the absorption amount as well. In that case, with base mana being ~ 3875, and 20k max mana, a 1500-point Divine Aegis shield would restore 84 mana. You will get (from 1% crit) 2.4 of these shields per fight, or 2.8 Mp5. Now, divide this again by 167, and get 0.017 Mp5 per point of intellect.
Nice work. A few comments on the Intellect versus Spirit issue:

1. I think there's a clerical error in the Mp5 from replenishment, which should be .0125 times the 15 mana you get from 1 point of intellect, i.e. 0.1875 instead of 0.0125

2. There is a fairly technical post on the mathematics of "how much spirit / intellect should I have" here. A lot depends on the amount of Mp5 you assume you'll actually realize in practice from each point of int. However, based on that previous discussion, a crude estimate of the relative value of intellect relative to spirit would be:

\displaystyle{\frac{Spirit}{2\cdot Int} + \frac{9}{4\cdot\sqrt{Int}}\quad\text{for holy priests}}

\displaystyle{\frac{Spirit}{2\cdot Int} + \frac{9}{2\cdot\sqrt{Int}}\quad\text{for discipline priests}}

If the value you get is 1.0, intellect and spirit are equally valuable to your mana regeneration. If the value is 1.5, then intellect is 1.5 times more valuable than spirit. If it's 0.5, then intellect is half as valuable as spirit, etc.

3. The rapture returns from divine aegis per point of intellect at level 80 have been worked out in another post as:

\displaystyle{6.02835 \times 10^{-6}\cdot\left(\frac{0.00006\cdot Mana_{max} + 18.975\cdot crit}{1 + 0.5\cdot crit}\right)\cdot HPS_{raw}}

Assuming 20k-30k mana, 20-30% crit rate, and 3K-5K raw HPS (including overheal, but only counting crittable heals), a fairly conservative estimate would be 0.1 Mp5 per point of intellect.

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Old 11/11/08, 7:13 AM   #153
Viv
Von Kaiser
 
Undead Priest
 
Twisting Nether (EU)
Originally Posted by Zomgdie View Post
That being said tossing down a lightwell under the bubble right as everyone collapses could help mitigate that one jerk spreading fire and help healing up the damage taken from the aoe.
Have you tried clicking on a lolwell when there's 25 people standing on top of it though?

As it stands, lightwell is a solution with no suitable problem.
- You can't be in a hurry: not only do you need to have some time to move to it and click on it, it also takes time to heal you up.
- Everyone is always in a hurry: either trying to dps/tank/heal as hard as they can, or needing That Fat Heal Right Now Or Else.
- If people are spread out, it's unusable: too far to run for the average raid member.
- If people are clumped up, it's unusable: you can't click it as it's neatly embedded inside a tauren derriere.

If something is unusable in practice, its theoretical output is immaterial.

In my dream world, lightwell would be implemented like a "healing void zone" which only a blind man could miss - healing the lowest-health targets that step into it (thus requiring no clicking), up to a maximum of X healed total.
That sort of implementation would definitely make it very useful for the scenario you describe, and X being high enough could justify the spell having as long a cooldown as it does.

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Old 11/11/08, 7:20 AM   #154
dukes
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Dukes
Tauren Druid
 
No WoW Account (EU)
If you put a lightwell down in the right place, there should be no issue clicking it (it has a range - it's not like you need to stand on top of it to click it). The bubble on KJ is exactly the kind of situation its great for - a lot of people who are taking damage / are about to take damage, in one place, with no reason not to change target to click it.

If people use it properly, it saves a hell of a lot of healing. It's like quite a lot of talents now - situational, but incredibly useful in that situation.

I've been 9-10 manning Magtheridon recently on my priest with some friends, and using it for the MT to use during the end of earthquake/before blast nova/etc, and for an offtank to use during the start of the fight, it is very useful as an extra heal while others are unavailable/out of range/etc. Making people aware that it's there to be used is one of the biggest challenges, but once you do it can easily save lives. I can see it being of more use in 10 mans when you only have 1-2 "full" healers, but you should still get some use out of it in 25's (enough to justify the point at least).

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Old 11/11/08, 10:21 AM   #155
Pitbuller
King Hippo
 
Tauren Shaman
 
Wildhammer (EU)
2. 1 intellect = 0.0125 Mp5 (Replenishment)
This would be true if intellect give 1mana. Right value without kings is: 15 * 0.0025 * 5 = 0.1875mp5.

Slow, slower, shaman weapon.

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Old 11/11/08, 12:05 PM   #156
Zomgdie
Von Kaiser
 
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Zomgdie
Undead Priest
 
Frostmourne
Originally Posted by Viv View Post
Have you tried clicking on a lolwell when there's 25 people standing on top of it though?

If something is unusable in practice, its theoretical output is immaterial.

In my dream world, lightwell would be implemented like a "healing void zone" which only a blind man could miss - healing the lowest-health targets that step into it (thus requiring no clicking), up to a maximum of X healed total.
That sort of implementation would definitely make it very useful for the scenario you describe, and X being high enough could justify the spell having as long a cooldown as it does.
It's VERY situational I'm aware. But i wouldnt call it unusable. In fact I think I may try it tonight. Placement will be an issue im sure. BUT if it saves even one life then it was worth the cast time/mana.

Ahhhhh to be in a perfect world. I think blizzard has made it abundantly clear by now that they intend lightwell to be a mid level rarely useful talent. I highly doubt that will change anytime in the near future. That being said I can still think of decent uses for it. Toss one right behind the mellee, or somewhere close to the warlocks so they can LT without healers having to watch/worry about them. Again Limited uses, BUT I think its a viable and useful alternative if you can use it intelligently.

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Old 11/11/08, 2:17 PM   #157
Cunegonde
Glass Joe
 
Undead Priest
 
Eredar
The problem with a mid level, rarely useful talent is the sacrifice you make to have it. Especially at level 70 with the 3.0 patch out, there are so many other talents you can have that passively buff all spells. IHC, Serendipity, test of faith, guardian spirit and divine providence are all very awesome options that are useful in almost all situations. Just one point in any of these talents will impact your overall effect everywhere.

As for points spent earlier in the tree, Holy reach can be worth putting a point in to get more out of a CoH cast and a single point in surge of light seems to give me an instant flash of light every time i need one. Paired with serendipity, that's a viable and efficient talent use.

Last edited by Cunegonde : 11/11/08 at 2:46 PM.

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Old 11/11/08, 2:21 PM   #158
Viv
Von Kaiser
 
Undead Priest
 
Twisting Nether (EU)
Fair points dukes/Zomgdie.
Other examples of the well being useful could be plonking it down next to your warlocks on a Kaz'Rogal-like drain fight, or wherever your Brutallus's Burn victims stand. Loatheb sounds rather like a job for the lolwell too.

I do however think that at the very least its cooldown needs to be around 2 minute mark in order for it to be of tactical, rather than just novelty, value.
And I still do have a dream

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Old 11/11/08, 2:31 PM   #159
Isin
Piston Honda
 
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Undead Priest
 
Borean Tundra
Originally Posted by Zomgdie View Post
BUT if it saves even one life then it was worth the cast time/mana.
I know you mean this in like the heuristic touchy-feely "I'm a giver-of-life" way, but it's simply not true. If lightwell is somehow saving this one person, you're probably better off using that cast time to drop a renew on him instead. That way he could be actually doing his job in the raid rather than clicking an object to save his life. Beyond that, due to the breaking nature, if a lightwell renew is going to be saving his life, it is probably going to be broken by the damage and that guy is dead anyway and it's your fault.

I have been a dpser in raids and I will click on the lightwell if I need it (and as my dpser is a warlock it is fantastic), but if we're to be completely honest, non-warlock dpsers find it to be a complete pain in the ass, and are mostly doing it because dpsers live in constant fear of getting on some kind of healer blacklist if they offend you.

The lightwell debate is difficult because its usage is impossible to model from raid to raid and fight to fight. However, I can speak for myself as a healer and say that I'm uncomfortable delegating my healing role onto other people, and maybe i'm a control freak but I like to be the one actively making sure that my healing assignments get healed.

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Old 11/11/08, 2:42 PM   #160
Zomgdie
Von Kaiser
 
Zomgdie's Avatar
 
Zomgdie
Undead Priest
 
Frostmourne
Originally Posted by Isin View Post
However, I can speak for myself as a healer and say that I'm uncomfortable delegating my healing role onto other people, and maybe i'm a control freak but I like to be the one actively making sure that my healing assignments get healed.
I agree with that 100%. BUT I wasnt saying it should be used as a primary means of keeping people alive. Its definatly a supplemental asset and should be used as such. This is why said used intelligently. Expecting dps to think that they may be partially responsible for keeping themselves alive is completly unreasonable. If they didnt pop a health stone or pot I tell them to stop complaining about heals. We try to use an attitude of personal responsibility. Obviously its the healers responsibility to keep people alive. However at the level of content and progression most of us aim for, if your DPS cant make an attempt to keep themselves alive that too is also a problem. Train them to use the shiny lightwell :P
.

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Old 11/11/08, 3:05 PM   #161
Cunegonde
Glass Joe
 
Undead Priest
 
Eredar
Although I completely agree with Isen about being nervous in regards to delegating your role as a healer to the raid group, things like health stones, health potions, and bandages are all ways the raid group can self heal. They allow us to focus on primary targets, and save our GCDs for more important purposes. Health stones used during encapsulate or while burning on KJ greatly improve survival rate due to reaction speed alone. Every healer, at some point has to decide between two dying targets. Therefor self healing can be a vital part of the game.

If, at the end of a raid, SWS has lightwell doing a better job than another point could have, then it becomes usable. It's the sheer lack of use and rarity of viability that makes it something I always pass on.

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Old 11/11/08, 8:02 PM   #162
Thorongil
Piston Honda
 
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Human Priest
 
Alexstrasza (EU)
On a sidenote: The lightwell discussion has already been elaborated extensively in the Priest WotlK Preview Thread, coming up with the same discussion right here is quite pointless when a simple thread search provides the same results.


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Old 11/11/08, 11:00 PM   #163
DivineLight
Glass Joe
 
Human Rogue
 
Magtheridon
i was wondering by chance would u have a spreadsheet for holy/discipline priests?

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Old 11/12/08, 2:47 AM   #164
Schieni
Glass Joe
 
Dwarf Priest
 
Nozdormu (EU)
Are these stat weights good ones:

Holy Priest
Crit 0.0997
Haste 0.4500
Int (crit) 0.0361
Int (mana) 0.2295
Int (regen) 0.2133
Int (replen) 0.1753
Int (sf) 0.0825
Spellpower 0.6000
Spirit (regen) 0.3879
Spirit (spellpower) 0.5400

And in summary:
Deep Holy Priest Stat Weights:
Spellpower: 0.60
Spirit: 0.54
Intellect: 0.74
Crit: 0.10
Haste: 0.45
MP5: 1.00

You can find details at the source:
Weighing Priest Healing Stats A Dwarf Priest
What would you change? And why?

Last edited by Schieni : 11/12/08 at 5:18 AM.

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Old 11/12/08, 6:12 AM   #165
Crow
Von Kaiser
 
Blood Elf Priest
 
Outland (EU)
Originally Posted by Thorongil View Post
On a sidenote: The lightwell discussion has already been elaborated extensively in the Priest WotlK Preview Thread, coming up with the same discussion right here is quite pointless when a simple thread search provides the same results.
Please make Thorongil a mod on this forums.

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Old 11/12/08, 10:18 AM   #166
Liths
Piston Honda
 
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Human Priest
 
Emerald Dream (EU)
Originally Posted by Woozle View Post
To be honest, I'm not sure exactly sure what hard data you're looking for that would convince you either way. SOL is tied to your crit rate. That means that its effectiveness is tied not only to the particulars of your spec, but also to the type of fight you are in and the types of spells you cast. Right now, I almost always get a SOL proc whenever I cast COH, whereas when I'm chain casting gheal, its a less frequent occurrence. Further, the number of talent points you have at 80 makes it very easy to pick up both lightwell and SOL without sacrificing too much. The tradeoff is more throughput on your base spells, for situational tools that increase your mana efficiency and/or allow you to do multiple things at once. Even if you could model it, it seems to me to come down to a personal choice and playstyle issue.
It kind of bothers me that people are saying that you get a SoL proc on almost every CoH, it's simply not true. Very easy to show with some simple math.
20% crit rate at level 70: 0.9^5 = 59% chance to not get a SoL proc.
Even at 25% crit with the glyph at 80 it's hardly going to be on every cast: 0.875^6 = 45% chance to not get a sol proc. The only reason you say that is that when you use it you normaly spam it a couple of times, once you cast it four or more times in rapid succession do you start reaching the almost every time stage.

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Old 11/12/08, 10:50 AM   #167
Woozle
Von Kaiser
 
Undead Priest
 
Mannoroth
Originally Posted by Liths View Post
It kind of bothers me that people are saying that you get a SoL proc on almost every CoH, it's simply not true. Very easy to show with some simple math.
20% crit rate at level 70: 0.9^5 = 59% chance to not get a SoL proc.
Even at 25% crit with the glyph at 80 it's hardly going to be on every cast: 0.875^6 = 45% chance to not get a sol proc. The only reason you say that is that when you use it you normaly spam it a couple of times, once you cast it four or more times in rapid succession do you start reaching the almost every time stage.
Anecdotal evidence is not meant to be taken as actual evidence, and I'm sorry you mistook it as such. I was illustrating the relative frequency of occurrence of events between two different cast styles, COH vs. geal spam. My intent wasn't to provide cold hard data, it was to show that modeling SOL vs. lightwell is a near impossible and situation-variant task that makes it not worth the time. Further, I didn't think such a model would actually convince anyone of anything, since the mechanics modify playstyle, not throughput and thus don't respond well to modeling the same as spirit / int conversions (for example). Further, I view the endless arguments about SOL and lightwell as (nearly) pointless, because the choice between the two isn't the only choice out there, you can sacrifice throughput spells instead, so taking the narrow view of SOL vs. lightwell seemed to be choking this thread, and perhaps my response was a passive aggressive response to try and end it.

edit: the argument between SOL and lightwell isn't pointless, I just feel that at this point new posts in the same vein aren't adding anything to the discussion, this one included.

Last edited by Woozle : 11/12/08 at 1:06 PM.

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Old 11/12/08, 4:02 PM   #168
Llnith
Glass Joe
 
Blood Elf Priest
 
Illidan
Have you done any research into the impact of the new regen mechanics combine with the [Darkmoon Card: Blue Dragon], or [Bangle of Endless Blessings]? I heard roomers they scaled down the bangle as your level increases but I haven't heard anything about the blue dragon.

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Old 11/12/08, 4:05 PM   #169
Merple
King Hippo
 
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Merple
Undead Priest
 
No WoW Account
Originally Posted by Llnith View Post
Have you done any research into the impact of the new regen mechanics combine with the [Darkmoon Card: Blue Dragon], or [Bangle of Endless Blessings]? I heard roomers they scaled down the bangle as your level increases but I haven't heard anything about the blue dragon.
Blue Dragon is and always has been 2%. It's stated so on the item. The Bangle on the other hand has a PL formula in it, indicating that 70 is 15% and loses 1% every 2 level until 0% at level 100.

As such, you'll still see some benefit to levelling with the bangle (great for spirit classes) and some benefit to using it at 80, but the Darkmoon Card will always be just as good as it was at 60.

-In our country, any CBC reporter can dream of becoming head of state.

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Old 11/12/08, 4:17 PM   #170
Liths
Piston Honda
 
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Human Priest
 
Emerald Dream (EU)
Originally Posted by Woozle View Post
Anecdotal evidence is not meant to be taken as actual evidence, and I'm sorry you mistook it as such. I was illustrating the relative frequency of occurrence of events between two different cast styles, COH vs. geal spam. My intent wasn't to provide cold hard data, it was to show that modeling SOL vs. lightwell is a near impossible and situation-variant task that makes it not worth the time. Further, I didn't think such a model would actually convince anyone of anything, since the mechanics modify playstyle, not throughput and thus don't respond well to modeling the same as spirit / int conversions (for example). Further, I view the endless arguments about SOL and lightwell as (nearly) pointless, because the choice between the two isn't the only choice out there, you can sacrifice throughput spells instead, so taking the narrow view of SOL vs. lightwell seemed to be choking this thread, and perhaps my response was a passive aggressive response to try and end it.

edit: the argument between SOL and lightwell isn't pointless, I just feel that at this point new posts in the same vein aren't adding anything to the discussion, this one included.
I'm well aware of that, and it wasn't really directed at you and your post only. My point is, you won't be getting a SoL proc every time you cast a CoH. I mainly posted the numbers to show that SoLs value is going to become diminished with CoH on a 6 sec cooldown.

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Old 11/12/08, 4:24 PM   #171
Isin
Piston Honda
 
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Undead Priest
 
Borean Tundra
Originally Posted by Merple View Post
Blue Dragon is and always has been 2%. It's stated so on the item.
...
the Darkmoon Card will always be just as good as it was at 60.
Your first statement is correct, but the second is not really true. In WOTLK, the coefficient on int/spirit regen will drop dramatically as we level, and consequently we will get much less spirit based regen at 80. From a tester thread on the beta:

WotLK Beta (US-English) Forums -> Please do something about priest mana regen..

The coefficient on spirit regen will drop to about 60% of its effectiveness at 80 compared to what it was at 70. Priests will be much more reliant on Max mana based regen mechanics, such as shadowfiend, mana tide totem, and replenishment than on their personal int/spirit based regen in comparison to before. The Darkmoon card will still be 2% of your spirit based regen, but that overall spirit based regen will actually be lower at 80 than at 70 given comparable stats, and you are probably much better off going with a different type of trinket.

This is one of the reasons that const and dwarfpriest and all are weighing spirit so low in comparison to other stats. It is an ok stat for holy priests because of its synergy with other talents, but it is weak now in terms of its contribution to mana regen.

Last edited by Isin : 11/12/08 at 4:30 PM.

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Old 11/12/08, 6:41 PM   #172
Crosshairs
Von Kaiser
 
Goblin Rogue
 
Burning Legion
Originally Posted by Llnith View Post
Have you done any research into the impact of the new regen mechanics combine with the [Darkmoon Card: Blue Dragon], or [Bangle of Endless Blessings]? I heard roomers they scaled down the bangle as your level increases but I haven't heard anything about the blue dragon.

I started looking at the [Darkmoon Card: Greatness] as an alternative. However I am not sure spirit will be my top stat so proccing 300 spirit and then trying to cheat the 5sr, might not be possible.

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Old 11/12/08, 7:41 PM   #173
Starfire
Honorary Toastr
 
Night Elf Priest
 
Dragonblight
Originally Posted by Crosshairs View Post
I started looking at the [Darkmoon Card: Greatness] as an alternative. However I am not sure spirit will be my top stat so proccing 300 spirit and then trying to cheat the 5sr, might not be possible.

You can proc 300 intellect though. Interestingly enough, its theoretically possible for this trinket to be 90 spirit / 300 intellect proc or 90 intellect / 300 spirit proc.

Seems like it'd be a good pick, with the Spirit proc being viable for Holy. But to your point, you can wait for a 300 intellect proc and then hit your shadowfiend.

Originally Posted by arison View Post
Everyone should start from the same place and rise based on their abilities, desires, and schedule. No one plays MMOs to *be* powerful, they play MMOs to *become* powerful. It's the journey, stupid. The rarer loot is, the more cherished it is when you get it, but only so long as there is a reasonable expectation to get it. The rarer loot is, the better it feels when you kill a boss or when $AWESOME_TRINKET drops.

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Old 11/12/08, 7:47 PM   #174
Sinndir
Great Tiger
 
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Night Elf Priest
 
Medivh
Originally Posted by Crosshairs View Post
I started looking at the [Darkmoon Card: Greatness] as an alternative. However I am not sure spirit will be my top stat so proccing 300 spirit and then trying to cheat the 5sr, might not be possible.
Crosshairs, do you know if the +90 agility is there for sure or is it +90 to a stat of your choosing then procs your highest stat? One way or another as a priest it should proc either intellect or spirit both of which increase our regen.

Originally Posted by Isin View Post
This is one of the reasons that const and dwarfpriest and all are weighing spirit so low in comparison to other stats. It is an ok stat for holy priests because of its synergy with other talents, but it is weak now in terms of its contribution to mana regen.
It is good that they are weighing spirit low. A Disc priest sees very little use from spirit, as they should have a high if not 100% I5SR casting time. They gain a bonus 5% from enlightenment and only gain spirit form regen from it. As a Holy priest there are more ways to cheat the rule (via free spells) as well as a direct conversion to spell power. However, for both Holy and Discipline, intellect provides us with more opportunities to gain benefits from each point. The top end mana increase, as stated above, increases our shadow fiend, replenishment, and mana tide totem (as well as starting with 20k mana will be super!). Not only that but with a direct conversion to crit strike and also increasing our passive regen it seems to just be better in a 1 vs. 1 situation. Discipline priests also must love the +15% bonus from mental strength.

Originally Posted by Liths View Post
It kind of bothers me that people are saying that you get a SoL proc on almost every CoH, it's simply not true. Very easy to show with some simple math.
20% crit rate at level 70: 0.9^5 = 59% chance to not get a SoL proc.
Even at 25% crit with the glyph at 80 it's hardly going to be on every cast: 0.875^6 = 45% chance to not get a sol proc. The only reason you say that is that when you use it you normaly spam it a couple of times, once you cast it four or more times in rapid succession do you start reaching the almost every time stage.
Liths, this is the last thing I want to comment on. I think your math is a bit off. You would need to use a probability equation (Binomial Distribution, I believe) to determine the chances that you would have to get a crit first, then check that chance vs. Surge of Light.

If you had a 20% crit chance with a glyphed CoH (6 targets) you would be looking at six chances to get a crit (SoL proc), each individual in themselves.

I'm still having a tough time figuring out the correct model to use. (Havoc any suggestions?)

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Old 11/12/08, 8:05 PM   #175
Dagma
Von Kaiser
 
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Troll Priest
 
Cenarion Circle
Originally Posted by Sinndir View Post
Liths, this is the last thing I want to comment on. I think your math is a bit off. You would need to use a probability equation (Binomial Distribution, I believe) to determine the chances that you would have to get a crit first, then check that chance vs. Surge of Light.

If you had a 20% crit chance with a glyphed CoH (6 targets) you would be looking at six chances to get a crit (SoL proc), each individual in themselves.
The original post may be correct. The implication is that there is a half chance on each crit, the chance of each NON-proc is (1 - C/2), where C is the crit chance.

Chance of a proc, on a single hit: \Pr(1|C) = C/2.

Chance of a single non-proc: \Pr(0|C) = 1 - \Pr(1|C) = 1 - C/2.

Chance of n non-procs: \Pr(0|C,n) = \Pr(0|C)^n = (1 - C/2)^n.

And that looks the same as the implied calculations above.

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