Originally Posted by mulvad
In the absense of "official" numbers from Aldriana, I modelled the changes currently on the PTR:
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These numbers should be taken with a grain of salt, as it was my first time working with shadowcraft I might have made a few mistakes. I'm curious to see how my numbers compare to Aldriana's once he gets his computer fixed
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So, computer repaired, I ran some numbers and got, quite literally, the exact same answers. Which probably implies that I have the same set of changes, which are... close to right. I haven't accounted for the change in weapon enchant proc uptimes due to having more MH attacks and fewer OH attacks, but overall the DPS effect of that should be minor.
So, Combat gained about 9%, and was theoretically only behind by 3 or 4 percent before, so in theory it should be better now; however, in practice, Combat typically performed much more like 15-20% behind (at least, if you believe the numbers found
here, in which case a 10% difference will still leave Assassination ahead. So the question that must be asked is: who's right? Well, having looked at the numbers a bit, I suspect the answer is: neither.
See, I think the straight-across "top DPS" numbers are probably pretty skewed at this point. Because Assassination is better, more people play it; because the boss that drops MH Daggers is much easier (particularly on Hard Mode) than the bosses that drop MH Swords, Assassination has an advantage there; and so on. Thus, while at a given gear and skill level, the gap might only be (say) 5%, in practice gear and skill aren't usually equal when comparing top performance on fights, so the numbers reflect a larger difference.
That said: having thought about it, I suspect the Combat model in my spreadsheet better approximates optimal play than my Assassination model currently does, so the gap may well be somewhat larger than the spreadsheet predicts. I don't think its a *lot* bigger - probably a couple of percent at most - but its plausible to me that Combat is currently further behind than the spreadsheet predicts.
With that in mind, its really hard to say whether the 9% gain in Combat DPS - coupled with better target switching through the Restless Blades/Redirect interaction - is going to be sufficient to close the gap entirely. My best guess it that the specs are now reasonably comparable across all fights, but each has its own set of strengths and weaknesses. For instance: Assassination's large group AoE is still much better. Combat's 2-target AoE is now amazingly stronger due to Blade Flurry. Depending on time-on-target patterns, the need to Kick, positioning limitations, etc. etc., any given fight may favor one spec or the other. And I just don't feel confident enough to try to guess which will be better overall. There may ultimately be an advantage to one spec or the other... but at this stage, I don't know how that will favor. Note, however, that the point about Assassination MHs being easier to get still applies.
As an aside for those of you wondering about Subtlety:its theoretical damage gain is of comparable magnitude - just over 9%, to be specific. And given that it was clearly worse than Combat before... it still is. And thus clearly worse than Assassination before. Without even considering the awfulness of the cycle. Which is not to say that it isn't useful to spec for certain situations, but its still really a non-option as an everyday raiding spec.