You're also neglecting crit depression and the fact that there are no gearsets in which you can obtain 0 expertise and roughly special hit cap. 50% seems like a number that includes the 4piece, which you will also no longer have; your armory shows you at 24% and that's not going to double from flask/rampage/kings/bshout/food.
While that may be true, it's unlikely that hitting the crit cap because of a lack of Hit/Expertise will cause Mastery to become more valuable than Crit; it would just increase the value of Hit/Expertise.
To clarify what I said earlier; I didn't mean to suggest that the crit-cap will be a realistic issue in 4.3, just that I can't see Mastery becoming more valuable than Crit unless we do hit the crit-cap.
There are two things to take into consideration when looking at the value of crit, expertise and hit.
First: Is shadowcraft already taking crit-caps into consideration?
Second: Are crit-EP Values accurately taking into account, that ambush already goes beyond 100% crit?
Even if both answers are yes, going for expertise would be the easiest way to resolve the crit-cap issues of course.
Mastery, even with the new legendary bonus, will still be a shitty stat compared to haste, crit and expertise. I can see expertise overtaking crit though, since we're going to lose that 2set T12 bonus.
Originally Posted by Sarvius
You're also neglecting crit depression and the fact that there are no gearsets in which you can obtain 0 expertise and roughly special hit cap.
You actually are able to come pretty close to lowering your expertise/hit down to these values. Reforging my current gear I am hitting 68 expertise rating and about 9% yellow hit. Throwing in a potion and full raidbuffs+fiery devastation and if my math is right, crit-cap becomes an issue already. I'm not saying that it's going to have a huge influence, but it might be wise to take it into consideration when reforging your new heroic gear.
By the way, my current gear set is reforged to combat. By just specing into Sub without reforge or horn of winter (all other relevant raidbuffs are present, including flask and food) I am hitting 38,6% crit right now. Reforging will grant about 4,8%, and horn should equal out at another ~2%. So hitting ~50%crit in a raid environment for a period of about 25 or 50seconds , depending on whether fiery devastation lines up with the potion once or twice, seems realistic. If you're interested I could reforge and re-gear to get exact agility and crit-values.
Wound poison, in the absence of poison boosting talents like Assassination has, actually does more damage per attack than Instant; it does roughly 40% as much damage per proc, but procs 2.5x more often so the damage per triggering attack is slightly higher. Under normal circumstances, this doesn't matter as you're getting a lot of bonus procs out of Deadly Poison, which helps Instant Poison a lot more than Wound (due to its higher damage per proc). But if you remove DP from the consideration - as is true for Combat/Sub thrown weapons or double direct damage potions for short fights - Wound Poison pulls ahead in raw damage output.
Is there a way to track the glyphed Hemorrhage bleed effect as a power aura? by adding a tracker for "Debuff", "Enemy Target", "Hemorrhage" you will get the 60 second bleed buff tracked, I guess because that is applied first.
I haven't had a need to update anything, I'll add more on patch day, but Firelands has been pretty uneventful for Rogues.
Sub will be in a fairly good position in 4.3, in my opinion at least. Some fights like Ultraxion will be brutal on the spec unless they let us Backstab and Ambush again, but it should fair pretty well overall. A lot of higher end Rogues have been toying with Sub on the PTR due to the success the spec has had in Firelands on certain fights.
As a personal opinion, I like the way Sub has handled the first 4 bosses on the PTR. I think any good Sub Rogue will end up being competitive with, or surpass, Combat. The back 4 bosses however all seem to bias Combat, some players like Rakez and Fragie perfer Sub on Spine, though.
Sub will be viable for most everything outside of Ultraxion I think, which can technically still be done with Hemo unless they actually fixed Backstabbing from the front (wasn't as of last week).
The only unfortunate thing for a lot of Sub rogues out there is that Combat appears to be better on a lot of fights due to the amount of cleaving. It's not that Sub will be bad, it's just that Combat seems to be favored in most of the fights mechanically.
It doesn't diminish that much. Last time I checked, exceeding the first crit soft cap was like a <2% loss in EP. Ambush just doesn't account for enough of your damage, and the Glyph of Backstab is still strong at that point.
On the PTR I survived it without specing Enveloping (and no healing from the healers) until Morchok gained Furious. I personally would recommend going 1/3 Enveloping by dropping 1 point in Initiative (it's rarely a DPS increase) and just try to eat the damage. I would also ask a healer to throw HoTs on you halfway through as the damage they would take is minor, but the DPS gain of keeping you alive through it is pretty massive.
Also, I updated the front post a bit. Take the BiS section with a grain of salt until Shadowcraft is updated. My version is old.