Here is a followup to my last post on a new method of Mutilate modeling. I've been in conversation w/ Todemax via PM's and he has explained to me more or less how the current Seal Fate modeling works in the current non-Mutilate cycles. (This is the new Seal Fate modeling, after it has been fixed to actually make sense.) What's there right now for the non-Mutilate cycles, as implemented by Todemax and DMM, is more or less what I was thinking of for updating the Mutilate cycles.
Basically, the current implementation is a X+/Y+ cycle, where the damage output is weighted by if you get additional combo points or not from your Seal Fate talent. The reason it hasn't been implemented for Mutilate is the difficulty of determining the percentage of the time that you would get the extra CP. I'm hoping to help fix that issue.
As a start, here is an updated set of state/path diagrams for Mutilate:
Savefile.com
EDIT: Updated the URL to a new file with the error that Drumbum caught corrected.
EDIT #2: In the above file "Relentless Strikes" should read "Ruthlessness"... (I always get those two mixed up. However, it's not worth it to upload another file... the formulas don't change.)
(By the way, anyone know how to attach a file directly to your post? Do you need special privileges to do that? I would assume so.)
The last page of that set shows a table of the probabilities of different outcomes based on the parameters specified. The table separates out probabilities for numbers of combo points and numbers of instant attacks used. In practice, a spreadsheet would likely implement this a little differently. I'm going to try to put together a spreadsheet soon which demonstrates the concept I'm getting at.
As always, feedback welcomed.