Assuming an alpha of 0.05, and trusting drumbums calculations on that being 24 WF->SS / SS->WF occurences: SS can't proc WF and vice versa.
For the people interested: I copied 24 entries from vulajins combat log with abovementioned occurence. I stopped at 24, at that time there was roughly 2 hours left on the parse.
PM me if you want the notepad file, I've no idea where I should host it, and I can't attach it here.
EDIT: I do have the rather uneasy feeling that the different % of WF and SS are going to throw this off, reducing it from "almost sure" to "very probably"
24 occurrences is ONLY sufficient for proving with 99.5% certainty that WF cannot proc after a WF->SS chain. The opposite situation -- SS proccing after a SS->WF chain -- would require 104 occurrences to provide the same level of certainty. This is because SS has a much lower chance to proc.
I suppose it'd be nice to test both of these cases, but it's important that you not mix the two together, as they aren't equivalent tests.
Additionally, while I arbitrarily chose 99.5% as my level of certainty, it may be just fine for this purpose to use a much lower certainty rate -- i.e., 95% -- since, well, the ramifications of being wrong aren't really that big. At a 95% confidence level, you need just 14 occurrences for WF->SS->WF, and 59 for SS->WF->SS.
24 occurrences is ONLY sufficient for proving with 99.5% certainty that WF cannot proc after a WF->SS chain. The opposite situation -- SS proccing after a SS->WF chain -- would require 104 occurrences to provide the same level of certainty. This is because SS has a much lower chance to proc.
I suppose it'd be nice to test both of these cases, but it's important that you not mix the two together, as they aren't equivalent tests.
Additionally, while I arbitrarily chose 99.5% as my level of certainty, it may be just fine for this purpose to use a much lower certainty rate -- i.e., 95% -- since, well, the ramifications of being wrong aren't really that big. At a 95% confidence level, you need just 14 occurrences for WF->SS->WF, and 59 for SS->WF->SS.
The whole lot of tests isn't valid, since I actually didn't notice at first Vulajin was the one with the Vanir MH, so he automatically is unable of proccing WF->SS
Other than the ability to over-stack buffs?
If every class got every available buffs (kinds of like when you could drink down a bunch of elixers and food buffs) then dps would be well over the needed amount for the encounters.
Some of the encounters are really amazingly balanced in that aspect now, and doing what you just pruposed would totally throw that off.
If he's making a case for a major mechanics change to be implemented in the next expansion, then current content tuning isn't really a factor. In fact, talents and skills will probably go through some re-tuning anyway, so it would be an opportune time to tweak talents.
There's no reason they couldn't lower a % of a party utility and apply it to the raid instead of just the party for the expansion.
That being said, I think such a change would certainly dumb down raid composition. I'd like there to be some thinking involved when groups are formed, and this solution would certainly be a lot more complicated than simply giving rogues a party buff.
I don't know if any new non-talent rogue spells/abilities are confirmed yet, but this should give everyone something to talk about. Initial reaction: Rogues are going to lose their raid slot, but they'll be so much better at PVP they wont care.
Initial reaction: Rogues are going to lose their raid slot, but they'll be so much better at PVP they wont care.
No one is interested in this crap on these forums. Take it to the WoW forums where such a post is welcome. If you'd like to have an actual discussion of the new talents/abilities, however, feel free.
These look pretty real. Honor Among Thieves is a real laugh for those who wanted rogues to give their party utility - look, you now can give Subtlety rogues in your party a buff!
And this is not intended as a troll, but I agree with the other poster. Unless there are some new Lvl 80 skills we don't know about, it's pretty clear most raids will be dropping down to one or at most two rogues. There is not a single raid utility move in there and the DPS buffs look very meh.
The WotLK concepts appear to be now extrapolations of the BC trees.
Assassination: Focused on damaging finishers and heavy poisoning
Combat: Focused on limited AoE, white damage and defense
Subtlety: Focused on backstab build and PvP
Seriously though - why are 2/5 of the top talents in combat going to be incredibly lame defensive skills?
I submit that the two top builds will be hunger daggers 51/20 and neo-seal fate swords at 30/41
Well, they've certainly wreaked havoc with the trees. Lets take a look at this for a minute:
Assassination
*Turn the Tables - It's a decent enough talents if you happen to be getting hit, but under normal circumstances you're not, so this doesn't accomplish a whole lot.
*Hunger for Blood - So, lets see. If we spend 30 energy every 10 seconds, we do 15% more damage. The lost energy eats some of the benefit, but it's still probably a net 10% damage increase in a sustained DPS situation - more, if you're getting debuffed.
*Focused attacks. With a fast OH and a dagger MH plus special attacks and WF, I imagine critting every 1-1.5 seconds on average is pretty doable. So this is combat potency type energy regen - maybe a bit less, but on that order of magnitude.
*Deadly Brew. It's a nice PvP talent to be sure; in PvE, I suspect it's not enough to make Instant Poison worthwhile over Deadly, but I'd have to run the numbers to be sure.
*Blood Spatter. 20% Rupture Damage? There are certainly worse things. Though given that rupture is only about 5% of your damage in the first place, this is only about a 1% damage boost.
*Devious Poisons. Again, nice for PvP. Again, a relatively small benefit in PvE.
*Cut to the Chase. In theory, this is an incredible ability. In practice, I worry that the randomness on finisher crits is going to make this less useful than it might be. If it were on every eviscerate/envenom, and applied the benefit of an SnD the same size as the Evis/Envenom, it'd be a lot more interesting. Experimentation will be needed.
* 3-point Vile Poisons? Nice, to be sure. Hardly earth-shaking.
* 5% Improved Poisons? It might be enough to make Deadly Brew PvE viable... testing/simulation will be needed.
In summary: I imagine this results in about a 20% damage boost to deep-assassination builds, which given that Mutilate is already almost competitive, seems like it makes the Assassination tree pretty interesting for PvE.
Combat
*Murder Spree. Big question here is whether your autoattacks continue through the spree; I mean, it's good either way, but it's a question of whether it's really good or only kinda good. At 70 in Sunwell itemization I'd imagine this gives something like 75 DPS in a raid situation - useful, certainly, but not earthshaking.
*Prey on the Weak. When it's active, I'd estimate it's about a 4-5% damage boost. It won't always be active. Certainly helpful, but not a major factor.
*Unfair Advantage. Well, it helps if you're tanking. But somehow I don't see us taking over as a tanking class anytime soon, so the utility of this is questionable at best.
*Stay of Execution. Mostly a PvP talent, though it admittedly does have some minor survivability considerations in raids.
*Throwing Specialization. PvP Talent.
*Nerves of Steel. Arguably a nerf, and never that good in the first place.
*Riposte - still mostly a PvP/farming talent, since you aren't often parrying in raids.
On the whole, some buffs for PvP, but at most a 10% damage boost in PvE... meaning I'm pretty sure deep Assassination (specifically 51/20/0) passes deep Combat in terms of raid DPS.
Subtlety
*Setup. Still useful while tanking. Still of marginal utility at best otherwise. Still mostly a PvP talent as a result.
*Cheat Death. Still a PvP talent
*Waylay. PvP talent. If it even works on bosses at all, you can't keep it up due to the fact that it requires Ambush.
*Honor Among Thieves. So, assuming each person in your group crits every 1.5 seconds or so (not at all atypical of rogues, and I'm willing to bet other classes aren't too far behind), this gives something on the order of a combo point every 3 seconds. Which means, over the course of a 5pt SnD, you get, say, 2 extra Eviscerates, or about an extra 100 DPS with level 70 stats. Helpful.
*Slaughter From the Shadows. 45 point Backstabs sound pretty good to me - this is a considerable damage boost... to deep-sub dagger builds.
*Shadow Dance. I admit it's sort of cool. I fail to see much use, though, I'm afraid.
All in all: Honor Among Thieves and Slaughter from the Shadows are great DPS talents, but the fact of the matter is that 21/0/50 builds are just so far behind right now, I don't think this is enough to let them catch up.
Hence: assuming nothing changes (which probably isn't a very good assumption), it appears to me that 51/20/0 will probably take over as the top damage spec, with 20/51/0 and 11/39/21 Hemo also being strong options. There are definitely some cool things here, but there's also a fair number that make almost no sense whatsoever. Hopefully some of the ones in the latter group will be changed.
Well, they've certainly wreaked havoc with the trees. Lets take a look at this for a minute: Assassination
*Deadly Brew. It's a nice PvP talent to be sure; in PvE, I suspect it's not enough to make Instant Poison worthwhile over Deadly, but I'd have to run the numbers to be sure.
When you finally run the numbers (and I'm sure you will have a functioning rough spreadsheet in a matter of weeks), remember that spell crit and physical crit are being unified into one stat. That'll be a non-trivial boost to instant poison.
If assassination ends up even just close to combat, like sword+fists vs swords, we'll see a mass switch. Combat is still just standing behind the boss and spamming sinister strike. Assassination will get a dynamic rotation in the form of Cut to the Chase, plus they'll never have to fight other classes for weapon drops (although combat swords might not need to either; fury warriors are being pushed towards dual two-handers).
So, any bets on when we'll first see combat/hemo hybrids proposed?
One Garrote and three ambushes or four ambushes, depending, plus 19 seconds of 10% damage boost, and 17 seconds of Waylay. Slaughter from the Shadows should make sub-daggers viable for something. Maybe not raiding, but something. Nine ambushes in 20 seconds (opener, two shadow dances and two vanishes with preparation) does sound like an awful lot of spike damage.
As an affliction warlock, I am a bit concerned that Hunger For Blood can be spammed for debuff removal.
This would let you use Ambush instead of Backstab for the duration, as you'd go back in Stealth.
Sure. But you're not autoattacking while stealthed, and depending on how the swing timers are managed that could eat your entire advantage outright.
Originally Posted by Mode
So, any bets on when we'll first see combat/hemo hybrids proposed?
I'm going to guess about half an hour ago, given that I already proposed it.
I suspect 11/39/21 will be the king of that space; the only other option that seems at all viable is 0/40/30+1, and I'm willing to bet that that loses badly.
Of course, there's still new abilities being added as well - we'll have to see what they're doing with those before a complete analysis is possible. And I think I might hold off on doing the heavy-duty math till they've had time to fiddle with the balance on these.
Sure. But you're not autoattacking while stealthed, and depending on how the swing timers are managed that could eat your entire advantage outright.
Just pool your energy so that you have the 45 needed, when you re-stealth whip out the Ambush immediately. Shouldn't be a big problem, but yeah you'd have to pay close attention.
Just pool your energy so that you have the 45 needed, when you re-stealth whip out the Ambush immediately. Shouldn't be a big problem, but yeah you'd have to pay close attention.
Right... but if coming out of stealth, for instance, resets your swing timer, you lose half a swing's worth of DPS (on average) every time you do this, even if you spend 0 time in stealth. If it doesn't, then, yes, it's a small damage boost.
Hunger for Blood is interesting, primarily because it's an Enrage, but also because it removes Bleeds.
Specifically, Rend and the new Bloodbath from Warriors are both Bleed effects that cause quadruple damage when the target is enraged. At first, I didn't think much of it besides an additional Execute-ish effect. That is, most bosses Enrage at ~20%, so Warriors not only get Execute, they also get the extra Bleed damage.
It also had SOME use in PvP, since Hunters can Enrage via Beast Within, but 1/10 classes is pretty limited.
Suddenly, here comes a second Enrage effect, but one that can remove the same Bleeds that would otherwise benefit from it.
Another pair of curiosities comes from the Overpower cooldown reduction talent deep in Arms, ostensibly to prevent Rogues from Evasion-tanking Warriors, but then Stay of Execution prevents Execute, while Sudden Death allows Execute to happen at any time.
Wouldn't Deadly Brew mean that you simply replace DP with IP?
When you apply instant poison to a target you have a 50%/100% chance of applying deadly poison as well?
It's a 2 point talent and the first rank is 50% wouldn't that mean that the second point would take it to 100% and thus, rogues with this talent maxed would basically have one poison that did what both IP and DP do now? Certianly an interesting talent, I was always a bit miffed by the fact that WF was a better weapon imbue that my class specfic poison was, this talent would pretty much reverse that feeling.
When you apply instant poison to a target you have a 50%/100% chance of applying deadly poison?
It's a 2 point talent and the first rank is 50% wouldn't that mean that the second point would take it to 100% and thus, rogues with this talent maxed would basically have one poison that did what both IP and DP do now? Certianly an interesting talent, I was always a bit miffed by the fact that WF was a better weapon imbue that my class specfic poison was, this talent would pretty much reverse that feeling.
Its an option for that extra rogue not in the enhance shaman group, they would fit nicely into a BM hunter group.
I'm not sure what you mean. The talent would actually show less gains with two weapons poisoned than it would be with one weapon poisoned and WF or some other weapon enchant. Basically, as I read it I think, this is the same as if you could apply both IP AND DP to one of your weapons. Now if you did that with two weapons all that would mean is that you could keep DP up more reliably, but without getting into the math, I'm sure that wouldn't be a huge increase in the same way that doubling up poisons in the first case would. That is, with one weapon I would guess that it would be close to the poison DPS that running IP and DP is now, plus you would still get to have WF on your MH. If you put poisons on both weapons it would only be the same DPS as running IP on both hands and DP on a "third" hand, plus whatever small benefit you would get from DP not dropping off as much. But I'm sure someone that has modeled poison DPS would have a more accurate assesment.
I missed the fact that there was a second point; with two points, yeah, it probably does take over (though not strictly so, as IP has a lower proc rate than DP). But with the new Imp Poison talent, I imagine that you can get your poison proc rate up to fairly ludicrous levels; with, say, a 1.3 speed OH and assorted haste buffs, you can easily proc IP every 2 seconds with 5/5 Improved Poisons, which, for level 70 poisons, is already up around 100 DPS; throw in the extra ~80 from Deadly, and we're looking 175+ DPS from OH poison. Unfortunately, stacking being what it is, your MH still wants WF, but still... a 100 DPS buff is a 100 DPS buff.
I'm not sure what you mean. The talent would actually show less gains with two weapons poisoned than it would be with one weapon poisoned and WF or some other weapon enchant. Basically, as I read it I think, this is the same as if you could apply both IP AND DP to one of your weapons. Now if you did that with two weapons all that would mean is that you could keep DP up more reliably, but without getting into the math, I'm sure that wouldn't be a huge increase in the same way that doubling up poisons in the first case would.
Looking over deadly brew (2 point talent) thats a 100% chance to apply Deadly per instant poison proc. Also Vile poisons was cut down to 3 talents and improved poisons buffed to 5% per talent (5 points). You could essentially spam envenom as Mutilate gaining refreshes to slice and dice using Cut to the chase.
Edit- This would make assassination the reverse of combat focusing on crit stacking over hit.
On the other hand, this might be a buff to Envenom of all things. The S&D-refresh talent allows envenom to be used in cycles more frequently, and I'm under the impression that double-DP can refresh the stack often enough to use it regularly. The opportunity cost of double-DP over DP-IP usually wasn't worth it, but now that double-DP doesn't prevent you from using IP, we're just looking at the spin-up time from building the stack.
(EDIT curses, beaten)
By the way, cycles are going to be a bitch to figure out. Proc-based energy return, minus 30 every ten seconds in a way that you have to make sure fits into your cycle in a way that doesn't clip with itself.
New Cheat Death presents a problem: First, how does it scale with resilience? More mitigation or less? Second, if you're already below 10% health does it actually heal you up to 10% or what? I assume if it would kill you it absorbs dmg-.1(hp) and grants a buff, rather than just setting your health total to 10%.
By the way, cycles are going to be a bitch to figure out. Proc-based energy return, minus 30 every ten seconds in a way that you have to make sure fits into your cycle in a way that doesn't clip with itself.
I was under the impression that all of these newfangled talents (not just for Rogues, mind you) were designed to make ability cycles dynamic.
Energy procs, cooldown resets, instant cast procs, etc., etc.
===
More on topic: Correct me if I'm wrong, but Throwing Specialization is the Gladiator Glove bonus in talent form, yes?
My suspicion is that the optimal cycle is going to look something like 4+f - that is, each time you have 4+ combo points, you do Slice and Dice (if it's down) and, otherwise either Rupture or Envenom, depending on how much time is remaining in your SnD (the exact breakpoint between which will require some investigation). But it's definitely going to be painful to model, and in particular breaks my planned cycle model in RogueCalc. I'll have to think about how to deal with this.
One thing that's abundantly clear is that crit is going to be *incredibly* important to assassination builds, given that it gives SnD refreshes and energy run on top of it's already-good scaling for Mutilate.
Also back to my point of not necessarily needing to be in the enhance shaman group. Due to the complexity of the new rotations you would probably prefer poison mainhand rather than waiting on offhand procs (your going to be using slow daggers for mut) along with keeping heavy focus on crit over hit.
Edit- Blade twisting being able to proc on ANY damage is huge, along with Stay of Execution/New Riposte makes combat the Anti-Warrior tree.
Last edited by Switchblade : 06/13/08 at 12:49 AM.
06/12/08, 7:58 AM
Similar Threads
