Additional thoughts:

I put together some estimates for a 4+Env/4+Rupture CttC cycle, and, at the 25-man Naxx gear level, it turns out to be inferior. If you have 2/2 Blood Splatter, the net damage by switching to a Rupture cycle is ever-so-slightly higher than a straight Envenom cycle (about 5 DPS). The problem is, in order to get those 5 DPS, you have to drop 2 talent points out of some other DPS talent, which basically sinks the idea. The interesting part about this that should be noted is how the damage numbers work out - the naive analysis shows Rupture ought to be better. A 2/2 Blood Spatter Rupture with Glyph and Mangle actually does more damage than a 5-pt Envenom, costs less energy, and doesn't reduce Deadly Poison uptime, so it really seems like it ought to be better; however, it turns out that Envenom makes up the damage based on higher uptime of the Envenom poison proc rate buff giving more IP procs. Which means when and if IP damage is nerfed, the Envenom/Rupture cycle might prove to be more interesting.

The other interesting note is that fast weapons are just plain better than slow weapons. Like, double Omen of Ruin (1.5 speed, 143 DPS) does more damage than Anarchy (1.8 speed, 156 DPS) MH with Omen OH. This again appears to be primarily an artifact of very high poison damage.

As a final note: the top DPS estimate I'm getting now is 6900 against non-Murderable bosses, hence up around 7200 for a boss that is subject to Murder. Which is... quite a bit of DPS, I have to say. Anyone know how this stacks up against other classes for that gear level?

I'm assuming only warlocks are able to pull off similiar numbers at this moment before they add more balance changes. Seeing how they fix class stacking and added utility to the rogue class, we can assume that rogues are not supposed to out-dps everyone else by a whole lot and can expect heavy nerfs incomming to at least assassination and poisons.

How are combat builds compared to mutilate in Naxx raids now? Most suitable builds probably would be 7/51/13, 15/51/5 or 2x/5x/0.

Since Combat Potency is broken, Combat builds are not performing very well at all. Or, more accurately, they're not performing, because pretty much no one is speccing Combat for Naxx.

I've followed this thread from the start and i'd like your expertise on the upcoming patch 3.0 with the lattest changes on PTR.

What's the top dps template at 70 at the moment??

I haven't looted any daggers since it was useless but i have 140 insignas and i was on the point of getting the crossbow, should i get both daggers (the fastest possible if i had that right) ???

Thanks in advance for your counsels and sorry for my awfull english.

Mutilate is by far top right now. But once they rebalance some things (poison damage), fix some bugs (especially combat potency) and potentially do a little bit more tree reorganization/talent changes (hopefully change Relentless to a degree -- at least not requiring 5 points, and adding a DPS component to Lightning Reflexes), Mutilate and Combat Swords should be balanced equally. Certainly that seems to be the goal, now whether or not this happens by the time 3.0 comes out who knows, but I hope it does.

I'm probably going to get those two badge daggers anyhow for 3.0, so I can just immediately go daggers, but if they don't mess up swords should still be viable.

I wouldn't be planning anything before they haven't finalized the talents and damage numbers. I severely doubt that the poison numbers will stay that high, resulting in slower weapons to be at least not worse than fast ones.

Kick is indeed off the GCD, and also does no damage now.

I used a full Naxx-10 kit for mages, and Fire spec was topping out at 3.9k, Frost at 3.6k fully buffed, flask, raid buffed and mob debuffed.

Arcane specs top out with Arcane Blast spam at 4.8k DPS, but that is regarded as broken spec that will be either nerfed or made unsustainable mana-wise.
(It basically forces you to spam AB and Ignore the 10, 20, 40, 50 point talents and all new talent from BC and all interactivity.)
Rotations which seem more intended and actually use the talents in the tree are at about 3.6k DPS.

Elemental Shaman and Balance Druids were clocking at around 3.4k, Shadow Priests below that, and Warlocks (Affliction and Destruction) were about 4.1k.
Shaman and Warlocks had several key talents reduced since then though. I haven't redone the numbers, but losses are in the 0-10% region. Shadow will be getting buffs (crit scaling), changes to other classes are not known yet (nerfs or buffs).


With 25-man gear and the changes to ToW, you could add about 150-200 DPS to most of those numbers.
So, yeah, that Rogue damage is quite a bit higher than caster estimates.

How would that look like with non-scaling poison? Could combat catch up?

At the moment on PTR it seems that Mutilate reigns supreme. However with some talents currently bugged and poison damage being...well a bit over the top, it's too early to tell.
However I'd suggest saving your badges for the Crossbow and save enough honor to buy S2 daggers if mutilate turns out to be the top dog once the dust settles and we get 3.0.2 in live.

Honestly, that was my plan too, but the last boss in the very first dungeon in WOTLK drops a dagger with higher dps than the s2 daggers:
Glacier Sharpened Vileblade

The drop rate is really high too, at least in beta. Both times I've run it on my rogue, he's dropped the dagger, and I've won the roll.

I haven't run it yet, but it's also quite easy to acquire this dagger in the 3rd dungeon:
Cobweb Machete

In live, I still may buy the s2 dagger, since i already have the honor, but I don't think I'm going to bother enchanting it.

I haven't done combat or subtlety estimates yet - that's on my list for the next couple of days. I expect it to come in somewhat behind Assassination, but it's too early to say what the margin will be.

I also updated the armor in my sheet to match the values recently discovered in the combat ratings thread, bringing the non-Murder estimate down to 6800. Removing the AP scaling from poisons and having them only do their base damage brings that number down to about 4850. However, I think this would cause long-term scaling issues with assassination builds - I do think poisons want to scale, just not quite as fast as they do right now.

For reference: a full 10-man geared Rogue comes in around 6300 DPS right now. So it definitely does sound like we're a bit towards the high end of the damage range right now, and should expect to see some nerfs - at least to assassination - come through at some point.

It seems from the web stats which were posted earlier for the patchwerk fight that hunger for blood eliminated the heroism exhaustion debuff. Exhaustion is only on the rogue for 9 seconds and he has 80 seconds of heroism while everyone else has only 40 sec. While I assume that this is a bug where the exhaustion debuff is considered a physical debuff which means that HfB can remove it and it yields a 15 energy refund. Others in this forum have also suggested the same happens with the first aid debuff.

Patchwerk

Aldriana's estimates, as stated in his post, assume full Naxx 25 gear, not the Sunwell gear most people are running with.

The 6800 number assumes full Naxx 25 gear. The 6200 number assumes full Naxx 10 gear. As far as I know most people are fairly far short of that gear level right now. Which is not to say that there might not be bugs in my sheet that are causing it to overestimate, but I'm not particularly concerned about the discrepancy between observed and predicted. Particularly since some talents are currently broken and thus not giving their full DPS benefit.

It's a bug, HfB removes all sorts of things including the +50% crit debuff from Loatheb, or the 4h marks. It'll be fixed.

Aldriana, just wondering if you have run the numbers for starter level 80 blues. This would give us a rough comparison of how starter gear compares against Sunwell gear. It would also give us a rough estimate as to how well rogue dps scales between starter gear and the end of T7.

Judging from the current public parses on Patchwerk, it would seem that rogues are on par with other dps casters given equivalent gear with about 4k dps from Sunwell gear and assorted WOTLK gear. If Sunwell gear were on par with level 80 blues and greens, then, at the moment, there seems to be a 2k+ dps increase at the end of a raid tier. That would be quite a bit of scaling from what we've seen before.

I'll hopefully be running some more Naxx later this week (provided the server allows--this weekend it was really flaky). I'll try to get you some more detailed information then. My initial thoughts though are that 5.4k DPS seems really high based on what I was anecdotally seeing with my gear.

Right. I mean, it seems high to me as well. The point is, I need some concrete data so I can figure out where the extra damage is coming from. My initial guess is that I screwed up in the poison code somewhere, as the amount of poison damage I'm getting seems high even given the current balance issues; but I've doublechecked the relevant sections in my sheet and don't see anything obvious, so I'm going to need a parse to compare to to track it down.

Actually, with the current poison mechanics, unless I'm missing something or the the roguecraft spreadsheet has bugs yet to work out, I'm seeing a few things tied to weapon speed and poison application:

Mutilate benefits more from a faster OH: This can probably be expected since the OH contribution to mutilate isn't as much as poison.

Mutilate benefits more from a faster MH: I thought this was really surprising, but I showed over 200 DPS increase from adding a faster dagger (with less base DPS/stats) into the MH sheet.

Shiv cycles blow away mutilate: I found the mutilate cycle was better than shiv with 2 1.8 speed daggers, but the faster the daggers (especially in the OH) the more shiv pulled away. This is not counting the extra DPS talents you can pick up buy not taking Overkill, Mutilate, Opportunity, or Puncturing Wounds.

All this leads me to believe:
a) Poison mechanics are still seriously out of whack and are going to get an extra pass
b) The roguecraft spreadsheet still has a bug
c) I fail at spreadsheets (this one is new to me: I've been using the one from http://rogue.raidcal.com for quite a while now)

If this is the way things really are, here's a potential Lvl 70 Shiv build that would just add in points to Precision and Close Quarters Combat on the way to 80 and [Edge of Oppression] just became the best dagger in the game.

Yes, right now 2x fast daggers is by far the best way to go. However once they rebalance the damage such that Poison is maybe ~20% of your damage in total (as opposed to the current ~45%), I think you'll see it rebalance quite a bit.

Is there certainty that using 4/5 pt Envenom is better than using 4/5 pt (talented) Eviscerate? (For Mutilate, obviously)

I did some testing on the target dummies in Orgrimmar (at 80 on a premade) before poison rate was fixed and was getting about 500 DPS higher using Eviscerate (~5300 vs. ~4800), with the Envenom trial getting 3 extra talent points (due to not needing Imp Evisc). However, the main factor here is obviously the 0 armor on said dummies, as well as the then bugged poison proc rate (and thus the Envenom buff did nothing).

Question is, does Envenom certainly outperform Eviscerate in a realistic raid setting?

From a no-numbers evaluation, the Eviscerate cycle would be affected by boss armor (in terms of comparing solely damage from the respective finishers), and result in higher DP damage (due to stack never falling) but less IP damage (due to absence of Envenom increased proc rate); conversely, Envenom damage would be tooltip, result in more IP damage, but less DP damage.

So, what are the chances it may be a close comparison by the time damage numbers (solo and raid) and boss armor (and armor ignore mechanics) are finalized? Or does it look heavily in Envenom's favor, from what you all have tested?

Sorry if this has been already addressed, but I haven't noticed it; I only see posts about Envenom, and nothing about Eviscerate.

The reason I've been largely neglecting Eviscerate so far is that the scaling on Envenom is clearly vastly superior. But it is probably is worth checking that we've reached the crossover point.