Could you add a tab where you can simulate something like an add-phase or whirlwind boss ability, meaning that for every x seconds you're on average about y seconds off the boss not attacking (including poisons dropping)?

That would help estimating better gear for not-100% uptime bossfights (which are the rule).

Has Deathbringer's Will's stats been updated?(haste instead of arm. pen. proc). I've been using this as mutilate and notice the proc (especially haste) seems to bump my dps by a good amount. The spreadsheet is saying it is vastly inferior to things like Death's Choice or WFS.

Yes, it's been updated for some time now. It shows as inferior because it is: about half the itemization points are wrapped up in the static ArPen bonus, which is less than ideal for Assn considering that less than 50% of Mutilate DPS is physical. Even though the proc is comparable to that of DC, DBW's static ArPen is much weaker for Mutilate than DC's static AP.

Edited for clarification

For those of you that would like to see Expertise Rating rather than the % I added it into my sheet because I also like to have the hard number.

Picture of Sheet

I moved the Passive Arpen to the column to the left and put "Expertise (WE)" and "Expertise Rat (WE)" WE being that you have 2/2 Weapon Expertise. Seeing as how I'm not excel savvy it will assume you have 2/2 WE, to check none WE values I added a sheet "Atheri" (my rogues name) that has the exact values along with Expertise rating without WE.

Combat_1.4.4

and there is the sheet ^, it rounds expertise and expertise rating to the nearest whole number (not sure if that's how the game does it)

Are you talking combat or mutilate spec?
The best pre-ICC25 Heroic combat set I have is ~11350 dps
The best pre-ICC25 Heroic mutilate set I have is 12230 dps

Of course as soon as arthas loot comes out, everything is gonna change (I hope not too bad)

Updated to coincide with the latest Combat version from Aldriana, as well as adding Alchemy to the Hacked in options for both sheets.

Combat_1.4.4_Modified.xls
Mutilate_1.3.2_Modified_v2.xls

I see what you mean, you're saying that being below the crit cap would mean that I have more hit than I do crit, so RNG would apply to the fact that I may or may not crit to my full potential, so maybe I worded it wrong.

Basically, between the two leg pieces, it's a toss up between way more haste and AP over crit/hit.
My post about RNG might have not been relative, but I don't know what you call it then?

If I have x%/y% crit vs x%/x%, you're saying the second is not RNG, but what I meant was that I would be relying on the crit to... uh... crit, proc if you need to visualize. So instead of leaning towards solid stats that are constant; being haste and AP, I'd be using Crit, but even at x%/x% crit, there's still a % (x% - 100%) that I won't crit, which would be RNG, no?

Sorry, I'm not good at this stuff, which is why it might have no made any sense.

Related to this discussion, I have a question about how this spreadsheet handles the effect of combo-point variance on average DPS. Just consider the variance from ruthlessness. For simplicity let's assume that your mutilate crit rate is high enough to always produce 3 combo points (ignore crit conversion for the moment). So when ruthlessness procs after an envenom, you need one mutilate per envenom. When ruthelessness does not proc, you go for two mutilates. Assume with energy regen through focused attacks and RS, this setup results in a relatively stable cycle of 1.5 mutilates per envenom. But now consider ruthlessness realizations away from the mean. Suppose normal rotation of ruthlessness procs results in such a frequency of envenoms that leads to 90% envenom uptime (allow for some clipping and occasional combo point draught). Now what if ruthlessness does not proc 5 times in a row (1% chance). In that case, envenom uptime drops to 50%. It does not happen very often, but for every string of unsuccessful ruthlessness procs there is a corresponding effect on envenom uptime. The probabilities and effect may vary, but I am curious to what extent and up to what kind of extremes this variance effect is measured.

Thats just the thing though, the closer to the critcap you are the less it becomes a "chance."
Crit chances applies to normal white attacks (I don't believe glancing can crit), so look at it this way;
Under the Crit cap you have several ways to hit the mob with white attacks:
1. Normal (whatever is left over when you take 100% - Glancing - Crit Chance - Parry - Dodge - Block - Miss = Normal hit chance)
2. Crit Strike (based on crit chance)
3. Glancing (can't crit) (24%)
4. Miss (based on hit rating)
5. Parry (0% when behind boss)
6. Dodge (0% when expertise capped)
7. Block (0% when behind boss)

Glancing will never go down or up, it is a flat 24% of your white hits and are unable to crit. you obviously can't crit on an attack thats dodged, parried, blocked, or missed. so that leaves with normal white attacks which are able to crit.
For this example you have a a crit chance of 30%, capped expertise, behind the boss, 14% hit.
Attack Table:
1. Normal 33% (100% minus the rest)
2. Crit Strike 30%
3. Glancing Blow 24%
4. Miss 13% <---- (Dualwielding 27%-14 hit)
5. Parry 00% <---- (Behind Boss)
6. Dodge 00% <---- (Expertise capped)
As you increase your crit it subtracts the hit from your "normal" attacks, and you cannot subtract more than you have (which is where the crit cap comes from basically). when you increase your crit to the crit cap your table looks like this

1. Normal 00% (100% minus the rest)
2. Crit Strike 63%
3. Glancing Blow 24%
4. Miss 13% <---- (Dualwielding 27%-14 hit)
5. Parry 00% <---- (Behind Boss)
6. Dodge 00% <---- (Expertise capped)

Any more crit than that will be wasted as it will do nothing (except help your yellow crit chance).
Anyways all that leads up to the answer of your question lol, by increasing your crit chance to the crit cap, EVERY possible hit that CAN crit WILL (besides yellow hits). This is why the other poster claims that it actually lessens the amount of "RNG." in the end though you got to remember all the stats are connected
If you get more haste you get more white hits, so crit and AP make those hits stronger so they becomes more valuable.
More AP means harder hits which make hit (more attacks) and crit (more harder hitting attacks) more valuble
More Crit means that you want to hit as many times as possible (hit) and want the base strength of the attack to be more (AP)
Hope that helped.

EDIT: Hopefully I fixed it, I'm not exactly the best at remembering specifics lol

Parries do not occur when you're behind the boss, regardless of expertise.
On a similar note, if you're expertise capped you should not be seeing any dodges (your chance to be dodged is equal to 0).

Edited for clarification

@Honzu

Thanks for clarifying, I see how it isn't RNG from how you broke it down.

My understanding was that the % in which the hits do crit is RNG, but maybe it's not considered RNG, but my point being is, with hard stats such as haste and AP, if the est. dps says xxxxx.xx, wouldn't that be more accurate than crit w/ hit gems saying yyyyy.yy? But I kind of see how it wouldn't be because in both set ups, a miss/dodge/w.e. is still a pure loss in DPS, but, those hits that can crit have a % to crit yeah? So it IS possible that I could crit at a 25% rate even with a 62% crit rating, although highly highly unlikely.

Get it? Kind of?

It's also possible that you'll find a winning lotto ticket in the gutter next time you leave the house. I just wouldn't bet on it.

To put it another way: yes, theoretically, some pretty wierd RNG things *could* happen. But in practice they don't - we can estimate how much variance you "expect" to see, and in practice almost no matter what your stats are it's going to be about the same size. Oh, it might get a little bigger or smaller depending on exactly what your stats are, but on the scale of the overall variance you expect to see for uncontrollable reasons, it's really not worth worrying about. I'd also note that variance doesn't always change in the way you might expect - for instance, given our current gear level, having more crit usually makes your damage *less* variable, rather than more.

In short: I wouldn't worry too much about which stats create more or less variance. You're almost always best off going with the stats that perform the best on average, which is, conveniently, what spreadsheets calculate for you.

Is it possible? Yes. Is it going to happen? No. Admittedly it'd be a little more manageable to figure out now that we've dropped rupture from the cycles, but it'd still be quite a bit of work to model and the benefits of doing so are highly unclear. When CttC was first introduced in beta (back before it was 100%), it was basically concluded that CttC really needs to proc 100% of the time to be good. Dropping your proc chance below 100% really hurts more than you might expect, and thus costs you more DPS than you might guess.

Also note that the only thing you'd reasonably take instead - Turn the Tables - really kind of sucks.

So... it could probably be done. But it's far from easy, and I suspect it would turn out to be pretty clearly inferior in almost all cases. So I have no plans to actually do it.

If this is true for one fight, it is true for all fights. The only reason I can think of where you wouldn't be envenoming a new target in a heavy switching fight is because DP isn't applied, and you aren't likely to have combo points on a target before you have DP. In order for CttC to be not good for a fight, we would have to stand around for a significant period of time not doing anything at all.

That's seemed like an interesting idea. I checked it in the simsheet, and swapping 1 point from cut to the chase to turn the tables is a dps increase of about 18 (not statistically significant at 500 iterations). Starting with two points, it becomes a dps loss. I did the tests without target switching in currently known BiS mutilate gear, based on the simsheet.

Hence, in practice, you make your cycles a bit less stable and more in need of micromanagement in exchange for getting spammed by an annoying proc sound effect and possibly - though not even for certain - a trivial DPS increase. Doesn't seem particularly worthwhile, somehow.

the lich king's loot is up on the armory, are you waiting until it's on MMO or wowhead before you add it to the spreadsheet?

The heroic gear is also missing the socket bonuses, though that really doesn't matter as much as it should still be a while before anyone has that gear.

My apologies, I had no idea it only went up today. I hadn't checked for the Lich King's loot table for a couple weeks prior to seeing it today, so I assumed it had become available sooner.

I have a question on how much lag can affect a players dps in a 25 man raid setting. My 25 man parses are some what less then optimal but in our melee stacked 10 man I'm usually with in 100 dps of my spreadsheet does anyone else have the same problem? Or is it that our 25 mans raid dps is lower which could be dragging down my dps? I apologize also if this is against the posting rules here.

example: 10 man-- 11k dps as combat on Fester

World of Logs - Real Time Raid Analysis


25 man ----10.4k

World of Logs - Real Time Raid Analysis

Typically ten mans are being over geared, meaning faster kills, meaning a higher heroism uptime. If you have a really good ten man raid comp, it doesn't seem unreasonable that you would do more damage in a ten man due to a greater heroism up time.

Mutilate 1.3.3 and Combat 1.4.5 posted. There's three major changes in these versions.

First, the Lich King items have been added. Note that we're still uncertain on the socket bonuses for some drops in the last wing of the instance, so there will probably be another update in a couple weeks once we've confirmed all of those. But what's here should be close, and we do have a full gear list now.

Second, recent findings indicate that either the way the hit table works has changed, or we were incorrect in our previous analysis of it. Regardless, this results in the crit cap being 4.8% higher than has been recently modeled, a fact which is reflected in the most recent version of the sheet.

Third, nelalas has done a great deal of work on the Combat version of the sheet for me. These generally fall in two categories - miscellaneous UI improvements (such as checkboxes instead of yes/no dropdowns), and the long awaited support for all racials, including the expertise bonuses for humans and orcs. It doesn't reflect this expertise bonus when doing gear recommendation, but the DPS estimates should all now be correct, so you can assess the relative value of swords and axes. So many thanks to nelalas for assistance in that respect - I've always felt it would be a good feature to have, I've just been too lazy to actually do it myself.

There appears to be a problem with the Combat sheet you have uploaded. It's not working at all, I included a screenshot of what I'm talking about. I tried re-downloading it twice and the same thing happened.