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Old 12/10/09, 11:41 PM   #201
• Aldriana
Mike Tyson
 
Night Elf Rogue
 
Doomhammer
Originally Posted by Omniwank View Post
Remember that Saurfang is the most absolute ideal deal fight for 51/18/2 to shine. Its focus is entirely on passive talents while swinging. On any encounter with downtime, 51/13/7 will perform better due to higher Mutilate damage and burst. The same applies to encounters with AOE - where more energy and more Envenom uptime translates into more room for FOKs while also under its buff. I'm not sure how far ahead 51/18/2 was ahead on the simsheet, but I highly doubt it was able to factor in a lot of the practical facets of the Mutilate spec.
So, I sort of have to disagree with you on this point - and honestly, it's a fairly common misperception. Relentless strikes is not a burst talent. Relentless strikes is a sustained DPS talent. It's power comes from the ability to chain finisher after finisher after finisher. It doesn't really do anything until you've already been on the target for 5-10 seconds, and when you pull off the target for a switch, it's very possible to wind up wasting the terminal RS proc (given that if you're out for long enough to cap energy, the fact that your last finisher was discounted is irrelevant). Crit and Haste, on the other hand, work just fine on fights of any length. It means that whether or not the fight is stable enough for you to maintain ideal cycles, you still hit the mob a lot.

Opportunity, I'll grant you, helps your burst to some extent... but in total, it's not at all apparent to me that 51/13/7 is clearly "better" for interrupted fights than is 51/18/2. Similarly, when AoEing, Opportunity and Relentless Strikes do *nothing*, while 2% crit from CQC (and to some extent LR through FA) still increase your damage. Thus, your points in terms of considering the reality of fights are well taken, but I disagree with your conclusion that 51/13/7 is going to be relatively stronger due to this consideration.

All that said: I do agree that the damage difference is not large, and if for whatever reason you do find yourself able to perform better with 51/13/7 it's not an unreasonable option.

I'd also disagree that the merit of RS has any real bearing on the 4+ vs 3+ debate. It's true that 4+ finishers have a higher chance of proccing, but it's also true that you're going to be doing fewer finishers. In point of fact: RS regen is directly proportional to combo point consumption; thus, so long as you spend all the combo points you generate, it doesn't matter in the slightest in what pattern you spend them.

Of course, with 4+ cycles, you *don't* spend all the combo points you generate. When you get a SF proc at 3 CP, you waste one combo point, an issue 3+ cycles don't have. Hence, 3+ cycles actually get *higher* energy regen via Relentless Strikes than do 4+ cycles. So if you're going to talk about which cycle loses more damage to the loss of Relentless Strikes, the answer is not 4+, but 3+.

Finally, I should note that it's not really that hard to model the damage gain from each cycle type, and, as such, on that point at least we need not speculate. And I find that in BIS gear, all combinations of 51/13/7 vs 51/18/2 and 3+ vs 4+ are within a couple percent of each other. So I think the proper conclusion to draw is that if you want to pick one cycle to use in general, 51/18/2 with 4+ usually proves to be the correct choice; however, the other options are completely reasonable to use at times, provided you keep in mind the strengths and weaknesses of each and are using them in the proper time and place.

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Old 12/10/09, 11:50 PM   #202
Zky
Glass Joe
 
Dwarf Rogue
 
Mannoroth
Interesting column there, I like you drew a linear conclusion for us "non read'n" folks. I was curious as to why you were still gemmed agility though considering that in most cases instant dmg out-preforms any other damage source, and as far as I can comprehend (I could be wrong) that the gains from gemming AP are greater than AGI in terms of IP dmg?

It could be, like you said that the gains from 51/18/2 scales better with T10 than t9.25, just a theory.

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Old 12/11/09, 3:43 AM   #203
orsraunia
Von Kaiser
 
Undead Mage
 
Steamwheedle Cartel (EU)
Originally Posted by Omniwank View Post
Having read through the entire simsheet thread, I'm really hoping that there is more discussion before entire specs are trashed, because we all remember how long people ran the 51/7/13 spec in Ulduar before discovering it was inferior.
First of all let me say that just because i am quoting you Omni, that doesn't mean that my post refers just to you or has to do with you. It's some things i had in my mind for quite a long time and wanted to posted them. I think that they can help with clearing up some confusion regarding "which is the best assassination spec at the momment?", "why does the best spec doesn't work for me that well?" and other similar questions. Sorry for the long post in advance and excuse my mediocre skill in English.

Let me start by saying that only good things can come from further discussion, still i don't think that anyone who is suggesting a specific spec as being the best is trashing the other variations of this spec or misleading people into inferior specs. Those people that are spending hours of research, in order to report here their findings and make suggestions, will sometimes be wrong. Whoever doesn't understand that there's such a risk being involved, is naive if you ask me. Same with whoever doesn't understand that opinions and findings, that are being posted in such forums, are never the absoloute truth, but their degree of validity and accuracy depends on those characteristics that are unique to our raiding envinroment. Meaning that if a certain spec, gear choice, e.t.c. is the best or not, heavily depends on if we raid 10's or 25's, what our gear level and kind is like, what our gemming is like, which are the raid buffs that we usually have, which are the debuffs usually present on the bosses, which is the kind of boss fights that we want to be optimal for (when progress raiding is involved) and a lot more factors.

Those who want (not impyling you are one of them, just saying) to just profit from the extended research and testing of other people, without bothering to spend some time towards understanding mechanics and thus being able to adjust and adapt facts stated in here to their specific raid envinroment and case, deserve to end up with a non optimal spec in my opinion. Having said that, my point of view is that the one who trashes the other specs is each one of us who chooses to blindly follow (without testing for oneself), what some will suggest as the best spec. And additionally will further suggest it to other people in game as being the ultimate spec, without defining what gear requirements, raiding style, raiding envinroment, e.t.c. this spec needs in order to be optimal. I don't think that it's realistic to blame the community of rushing into conclusions and thus suggesting things. Further discussion is always welcome, but i don't think that lives depend on if 51/18/2 is the optimal spec at the moment, so even if those suggesting it are partially wrong, no big deal.

In my case, i have dual spec using a 20/51/0 and a 51/18/2. We run 10's and just because i will not be using my assassination spec on any boss that i can't stay on for the full (or almost full) duration anyway, 51/18/2 is the optimal spec for me. Also talking into account my level and kind of gear, the kind of raid buffs that are usually present in my raids, e.t.c. Finally, trying to find the ultimate assassination spec is not a one way road, we can instead partially focus on trying to explain the differences between the different assassination specs and point out in which cases/situations the one is better than the other, why, e.t.c.

Last edited by orsraunia : 12/11/09 at 3:56 AM. Reason: typos

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Old 12/11/09, 10:00 AM   #204
Leto
King Hippo
 
Leito
Troll Rogue
 
No WoW Account
Originally Posted by Aldriana View Post
the other options are completely reasonable to use at times, provided you keep in mind the strengths and weaknesses of each and are using them in the proper time and place.
What might some of the strengths and weaknesses be?

For example, I'd imagine it more beneficial to maximize envenom buff uptime during heroism. What about trinket procs? 4+ is probably better during death's choice procs, while ensuring envenom buff might be better during comet's trail.

Rogue at heart.

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Old 12/11/09, 1:27 PM   #205
Omniwank
Von Kaiser
 
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Blood Elf Rogue
 
Illidan
Originally Posted by Aldriana View Post
So, I sort of have to disagree with you on this point - and honestly, it's a fairly common misperception. Relentless strikes is not a burst talent. Relentless strikes is a sustained DPS talent. It's power comes from the ability to chain finisher after finisher after finisher. It doesn't really do anything until you've already been on the target for 5-10 seconds, and when you pull off the target for a switch, it's very possible to wind up wasting the terminal RS proc (given that if you're out for long enough to cap energy, the fact that your last finisher was discounted is irrelevant). Crit and Haste, on the other hand, work just fine on fights of any length. It means that whether or not the fight is stable enough for you to maintain ideal cycles, you still hit the mob a lot.

Opportunity, I'll grant you, helps your burst to some extent... but in total, it's not at all apparent to me that 51/13/7 is clearly "better" for interrupted fights than is 51/18/2. Similarly, when AoEing, Opportunity and Relentless Strikes do *nothing*, while 2% crit from CQC (and to some extent LR through FA) still increase your damage. Thus, your points in terms of considering the reality of fights are well taken, but I disagree with your conclusion that 51/13/7 is going to be relatively stronger due to this consideration.

All that said: I do agree that the damage difference is not large, and if for whatever reason you do find yourself able to perform better with 51/13/7 it's not an unreasonable option.

I'd also disagree that the merit of RS has any real bearing on the 4+ vs 3+ debate. It's true that 4+ finishers have a higher chance of proccing, but it's also true that you're going to be doing fewer finishers. In point of fact: RS regen is directly proportional to combo point consumption; thus, so long as you spend all the combo points you generate, it doesn't matter in the slightest in what pattern you spend them.

Of course, with 4+ cycles, you *don't* spend all the combo points you generate. When you get a SF proc at 3 CP, you waste one combo point, an issue 3+ cycles don't have. Hence, 3+ cycles actually get *higher* energy regen via Relentless Strikes than do 4+ cycles. So if you're going to talk about which cycle loses more damage to the loss of Relentless Strikes, the answer is not 4+, but 3+.

Finally, I should note that it's not really that hard to model the damage gain from each cycle type, and, as such, on that point at least we need not speculate. And I find that in BIS gear, all combinations of 51/13/7 vs 51/18/2 and 3+ vs 4+ are within a couple percent of each other. So I think the proper conclusion to draw is that if you want to pick one cycle to use in general, 51/18/2 with 4+ usually proves to be the correct choice; however, the other options are completely reasonable to use at times, provided you keep in mind the strengths and weaknesses of each and are using them in the proper time and place.
Yes, the true power of RS is in sustaining burst, and the entire point was to demonstrate how changes to the percentage of possible RS procs have drastic repercussions that are not immediately apparent until actual practice. While it is true that it is possible to waste an RS proc on a target change under certain conditions, Mutilate DPS is somewhat of a sigmoidal curve until you level off into 4cp chains - and full RS just makes it faster to reach that peak, albeit only slightly. However, the main point is not really the difference in burst, because as noted it is minor but still observable. In an encounter like Marrowgar, Opportunity is going to increase overall burst damage by about 1/5 of a percent, which may be a small skew but it is still a skew in favor of 51/13/7.

When it comes to AOE, OP may do nothing, but RS is absolutely vital in that more energy available is more control of where your damage is allocated (in this case, as FOKs). If one has ever done Anub'arak as Mutilate, it is readily apparent the effect RS has on maintaining a sustained cycle while still managing FOKs under Envenom buffs. Without full RS, you are going to have a significantly smaller window to land a FOK with Envenom still up, and the impact on poison damage during AOE is huge when not timed properly. 2% crit is all well and good, but if you have say a 15 second window to AOE, then 2 energy returns from RS translates into a free FOK entirely.

You have a solid point on the 3+ cycle without RS, but the problem is that I've yet to see the 3vs4 cycles with RS accurately modeled in the entirety of this thread. If the modeling is as easy as you say then it should be no problem to post it (as I've requested it multiple times), because in practice my personal findings conflict with it, particularly with the rotation changes (Envenom). The loss of Opportunity is still a significant factor in the 4+ cycle (Mutilate vs Envenom), and in particular I want to see how the modeling reflects the poison output for each cycle.

It is true that the difference in specs is marginal, but that ultimately leads to deciding which is the most practical (or easier). I imagine that Envenom uptime is a nightmare with 51/18/2, but at the same time it's impossible for the spec to maintain it 100% so it is probably not worth stressing over its timing outside of the obvious (no overlapping, maintaing during Bloodlust, etc.) On the other hand, players specced into full RS should always be aiming for 100% uptime, which is a lot more involved cycle overall but it makes maintaining the buff a lot easier when it's really needed (i.e. cooldowns and lust). The parses point toward the latter edging out damage-wise, but if one is not solid at managing their Envenoms then I imagine they are better off going for the passive talents.

(@Zky I have not converted to AP yet out of convenience, not because Agi is better. Regemming to AP would be mostly neglible as far as the numbers observed in the parse are concerned.)

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Old 12/11/09, 3:31 PM   #206
Killme888
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Goblin Rogue
 
<FH>
Black Dragonflight
I don't get how you can claim that the parses are favored towards 51/13/7 at all. In fact, the only 25m parse you linked for comparison beat yours by 1k+, while you were on par with 10m parses..

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Old 12/11/09, 3:52 PM   #207
• Aldriana
Mike Tyson
 
Night Elf Rogue
 
Doomhammer
Originally Posted by Omniwank View Post
You have a solid point on the 3+ cycle without RS, but the problem is that I've yet to see the 3vs4 cycles with RS accurately modeled in the entirety of this thread. If the modeling is as easy as you say then it should be no problem to post it (as I've requested it multiple times), because in practice my personal findings conflict with it, particularly with the rotation changes (Envenom). The loss of Opportunity is still a significant factor in the 4+ cycle (Mutilate vs Envenom), and in particular I want to see how the modeling reflects the poison output for each cycle.
Well, perhaps "easy" is an overstatement, but my Mutilate 1.2 sheet does support both 3+ and 4+ cycles, and they're usually within 1%. For instance, in full BIS gear, I get the following numbers:

51/18/2, 4+: 14108.4
51/18/2, 3+: 14011.1
51/13/7, 4+: 14082.9
51/13/7, 3+: 13960.2

Note that all of these are within 1% of each other. But also note that 51/18/2 4+ is highest. So in general, I recommend that. But all the others are totally reasonable options.

The astute observer might note that the gap between 51/13/7 3+ and 4+ is larger than the analogous gap for 51/18/2, which is sort of in contradiction to what I stated earlier. The reason is this: with 51/13/7 and this much gear, you end up clipping a lot of envenoms. In point of fact, the average Envenom size is 3.61, and the average time between Envenoms is only 4.35 seconds. Thus: we're actually generating more Envenom uptime than we can possibly make use of. Moreover, due to the fluxuations in Mutilate size, you can't even make it to 100%; I estimate that about 91% should be typical. Thus, with all the envenom buff clipping, you can't make full use of the benefits of the spec.

Note that the other specs also clip Envenom to some extent; it's just that both 51/13/7 and 3+ increase the amount you clip, such that the combination causes you to lose more than you gain.

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Old 12/11/09, 5:56 PM   #208
Omniwank
Von Kaiser
 
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Blood Elf Rogue
 
Illidan
Originally Posted by Killme888 View Post
I don't get how you can claim that the parses are favored towards 51/13/7 at all. In fact, the only 25m parse you linked for comparison beat yours by 1k+, while you were on par with 10m parses..
Are you talking about DPS? Because of course they should be higher - I don't have BiS gear. The comparison isn't about how much damage they are doing per second, but how much the difference in talents are affecting the fractional damage of their output (such as what % is Melee, IP, Mutilate, etc.) You should also always be careful about comparing DPS between different parses because it is highly consequential of raid DPS and encounter duration (meaning DPS comparisons are usually only applicable between players in the same parse). The ones I linked should have been 25man, so you may need to toggle something to get them to show up. If not just disregard those and go here (World of Logs - Real Time Raid Analysis).

Aldriana, when you say the average Envenom is 3.61, I assume you are referring to the cp size and only toward a 3+ cycle? The problem with using averages is that in practice you should never be 'forced' into clipping unless in risk of energy capping during Bloodlust or possibly Overkill. At the same time though it is definitely possible to get enough bad RNG to be energy starved and have Envenom fall off during those same times - even more so with 4+ cycle. As you said, 100% uptime may be impossible from RNG, but from a cycle combining 3+ and 4+ the highest I've been capable of is mid 80s. I haven't played a strictly 3+ cycle, but if I'm reading your post correct in that 3+ cycles are going to have significant clipping, then I will definitely test how it works in practice.

Also, is there a way to show the hidden pages in your spreadsheet? I am trying to view the modeling for the different cycles but I can't figure out how to make them appear.

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Old 12/11/09, 6:31 PM   #209
Docrev
Piston Honda
 
Undead Rogue
 
Zul'Jin
Gearing can also shift the balance between those percentages, Omniwank. For example, swapping out Armbands of Dark Determination for Bracers of Swift Death yields nearly identical damage for me in Aldriana's spreadsheet (~2-3 DPS), but raises physical damage by about a half percent and lowers spell damage by about a half percent. This is a fairly minor example, but if this small a change can shift the percentages by this much, the difference in proportional damage between your gear and the people with BiS should be far larger.

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Old 12/11/09, 6:51 PM   #210
• Aldriana
Mike Tyson
 
Night Elf Rogue
 
Doomhammer
Originally Posted by Omniwank View Post
Aldriana, when you say the average Envenom is 3.61, I assume you are referring to the cp size and only toward a 3+ cycle? The problem with using averages is that in practice you should never be 'forced' into clipping unless in risk of energy capping during Bloodlust or possibly Overkill. At the same time though it is definitely possible to get enough bad RNG to be energy starved and have Envenom fall off during those same times - even more so with 4+ cycle. As you said, 100% uptime may be impossible from RNG, but from a cycle combining 3+ and 4+ the highest I've been capable of is mid 80s. I haven't played a strictly 3+ cycle, but if I'm reading your post correct in that 3+ cycles are going to have significant clipping, then I will definitely test how it works in practice.
The point is not exactly how big the finishers are, or exactly what the attack spacing is; the point is that with high-end gear, running 51/13/7, you generate envenom uptime faster than you can spend it. If each envenom is launched the instant the previous one drops, so that you have 100% uptime with no overlap, you will, on average, steadily gain energy. If the fight goes on long enough there is nothing you can do about this. No matter how good your pooling is, no matter how precise your timing is, the simple fact is that you're generating Envenom uptime faster than you can possibly spend it; thus, clipping is inevitable. And the simple reality of the situation is that perfect envenom matchup of this sort is functionally impossible anyway. In reality, if you do a 3pt Envenom followed by no Ruthlessness proc and a noncrit Mutilate (leaving you at 2 CP), you're going to have to do 2 Mutilates and a finisher there, and no matter how well you pool there's simply not enough energy in the 4 seconds of envenom buff to do that - leading to a gap.

So: you're generating envenom uptime faster than you can spend it; and perfect expenditure is impossible anyway. As such, you're going to be clipping. And probably clipping quite a bit. One of the major advantages of 51/18/2 (and 4+) is that it minimizes the amount of this.

Note that this all assumes that you're doing "3+" or "4+". In reality, what to take away here is that 3+ finishers are a reasonable option to the extent that you can do them without envenom clipping. And if you do them *all* the time, you're going to clip envenom too much and lose DPS; but that's not to say that you can't weave them in if you know how to do so without clipping.

Additionally, this is a problem that doesn't exist to the same degree at current gear levels. While the principal that 18/51/2 clips less still stands, clipping is a significantly smaller issue as your energy and CP generation are significantly lower. It still happens, but you don't find yourself in the situation described where you can't keep up on regen even in theory. I still show 18/51/2 4+ ahead in most cases, but the specific comments around clipping aren't necessarily valid quite yet.

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Old 12/11/09, 7:12 PM   #211
Naxtor
Glass Joe
 
Blood Elf Rogue
 
Blackhand
First of all i would like to thank both you Aldriana and also Mavanas for the extensive work that you do to help out the entire community i know it is a big timesinc on both your parts, so thank you.

My question is this: As long as you are not clipping envenom buffs with a 3+/4+ weaving cycle it is considered the best. But, during a heroism or bloodlust with an active speed pot does your haste go up high enought hat perhaps clipping is realistically your best option.

I know that this is a bit vague of an explanation but as long as you do not clip by a vast margin would it be more benefitial to concentrate more on keeping your envenom buff up as much as possible with 0 down time during a bloodlust/heroism due to the haste benefits of these buffs. I read through the posts and did not see a topic regarding this. Perhaps it is an intuitive thing that i have merely missed in my own mind but it seems to me that during these buffs it would be more of a benefit due to instant poison procs to keep the envenom buff up the entire time even if you are clipping by a margin of .3-.1 seconds but of course as always it is entirely possible that i am wrong about this. Any insight on this would be much appreciated. Thanks in advance.

Perhaps there is a point where stacking enough haste procs/buffs together causes clipping envenom buffs together (as little as possible but still clipping) to ensure 100% uptime may be the better way to go.

Last edited by Naxtor : 12/11/09 at 7:37 PM. Reason: spelling and wording

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Old 12/11/09, 8:09 PM   #212
Mavanas
Great Tiger
 
Night Elf Rogue
 
Lightning's Blade
I would just like to quickly go back to Omniwank's original post regarding 51/13/7 vs 51/18/2. I am glad you posted that because I can use it as an illustration of why arguments like the one you made are misleading and your earnest effort to model dps that way does more bad than good.

I have put in your gear and spec into the simsheet. I also tracked which buffs you had that fight and which debuffs were on the boss. I even put in the values for wild growth and rejuvination such as to match the 62 energy you gained from Rapture and Arcane Torrent. With those values I ran 51/13/7 and 51/18/2 side by side in the simsheet. The first spec gave 11,194 and the second one gave me 11,222 dps. I am pretty comfortable with the results relative to your report given that the uptimes of buffs and debuffs are about 5% short for some key debuffs. The difference between the two specs was only statistically significant at 16% meaning they were so close that they were not statistically distinguishable in 300 iterations I did.

In those 300 tries, when I did pairwise comparison between the dps of 51/13/7 and 51/18/2, the latter was ahead in 156 cases. The dps of the two specs ranged between 10500 and 11900 dps. That is RNG at play, and in a real fight the RNG is even higher because there is also weapon range rng, there is always a human factor, latency and fps, and most importantly, there is RNG due to buff and debuff uptimes.

So I did my calculation 300 times, and you come here with 1 try as 51/13/7, take the damage numbers and show that 51/13/7 scores better. Next time it is likely that you can do the same analysis and find that 51/18/2 is ahead. The point is that we have these spreadsheets and simsheets to minimize the effect of RNG on our conclusions. If necessary I run the simsheet 10,000 times to find which spec is better and to bring RNG to very low levels. Of course the difference between the dps could be so huge that no RNG could ever explain it. But for two specs so close to each other, for you to come here with 1, 10 or even 100 combatlogs and make conclusions that are not statistically significant and then claim some findings on the matter that contradict the spreadsheets is just a disservice to the rogue community. They are misleading to say the least.

P.S. The simsheet has a way to model 3+ vs 4+ cycles, so the reason you have not seen 3v4 cycles properly modeled is because you have not looked around. Aldriana's sheet can do it as well. In the simsheet 51/13/7 and 51/18/2 give 11094 and 11146 dps respectively, that's taking into account all related factors, such as for instance, envenom uptime changes. So as you can see once again using an absolutely different approach to modeling, that 4+ cycles score slightly higher in dps.

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Old 12/11/09, 9:24 PM   #213
Omniwank
Von Kaiser
 
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Blood Elf Rogue
 
Illidan
Originally Posted by Docrev View Post
Gearing can also shift the balance between those percentages, Omniwank. For example, swapping out Armbands of Dark Determination for Bracers of Swift Death yields nearly identical damage for me in Aldriana's spreadsheet (~2-3 DPS), but raises physical damage by about a half percent and lowers spell damage by about a half percent. This is a fairly minor example, but if this small a change can shift the percentages by this much, the difference in proportional damage between your gear and the people with BiS should be far larger.
This is correct and Armor Penetration is going to be the main culprit in fluctuating percents. However, while gearing more Armor Pen may increase a Melee percentage, Poison and Envenom damage suffers from it and in the end Lightning Reflexes still comes out to around a ~6% damage increase. And while we unfortunately only have one 51/13/7 to observe, there is an enormous amount of 2/5 RS samples where Envenom damage, uptime, and Mutilate damage can easily be analyzed in contrast to the classic spec. The overall differences in damage are less than 1%, but they are still apparent and it will be difficult to make as accurate parse comparisons as gear levels change.

Mavanas, the problem with running my gear into a spreadsheet is that I do not follow a strictly a 4+ cycle. As you noted from your testing, the specs are coming out so close together that RNG is typically the determining factor. The problem is that having browsed over 50+ parses of players doing the highest damage in the game, they are primarily on the bad end of the RNG. And this is probably the most important part of this entire discussion, in that it must be determined which spec and rotation is best capable of minimizing bad RNG. A player that can manipulate the dice roll of both Relentless Strikes and Ruthlessness will always be able to squeeze out more damage, and that of course leads us back to 3+ and 4+ cycles.

Aldriana has noted something that I have been aware of since the advent of the pure Envenom rotation, in that 3+ is at times capable of maintaining or 'saving' the Envenom buff, particular in bouts of bad RNG. If you are sitting on 3 cps while your Envenom buff is about to wear off, performing another Envenom can sustain the buff while giving another chance at a 4cp chain. If you ignore the buff to perform another Mutilate, you are not only hurting Poison damage but also setting yourself up for a possible 0cp energy drought, even more so with the loss of 3 points in RS. In contrast, if you get bad RNG after performing a 3cp Envenom, it is possible to still sustain the buff by simply Mutilating back into a 3cp Envenom. Either way, during bad RNG a 3+ cycle is capable of minimizing its effects through uptime while a strictly 4+ cycle takes a poison hit regardless of its next RNG outcome.

With my experience, a purely 3+ cycle has always been shaky in regards to Envenom uptime, in that it typically requires a much faster reaction time where you only have around 4 seconds to set up your next finisher. A 4+ cycle is more stable, but it is also more susceptible to energy droughts and loss of uptime. It gets complicated, but a mix of the 3+ and 4+ cycle seems like the best compromise, in that one can use 4+ cps to stabilize the cycle while always preparing and compensating for bad RNG through energy pooling, cooldowns, and 3+ cycles with Envenom uptime ultimately being the primary focus.

Anyways, it appears the purpose of my original post may have been misinterpreted. Yes I have only one parse for 51/13/7, but that is because the Pocket Guide erased the spec and everyone in the WoW community converted over to 51/18/2. It is unfair to say that bringing up a disparity in spec execution is a disservice to the Rogue community when no one asks questions other than "what should I do?". You can say that my conclusions are not statistically significant when you put my gear into a simsheet, but my observations are on the practicality and execution of the spec in the game, and there are hundreds upon hundreds of Saurfang Mutilate parses that you can readily analyze.

Keep in mind that this is only for one static encounter as well. There are still implications on burst damage and AOE that I have touched on but that are not included in simsheet runs. They may be fractions of a percentile, but this entire discussion has been dealing with differences of less than a percent.

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Old 12/11/09, 10:18 PM   #214
Mavanas
Great Tiger
 
Night Elf Rogue
 
Lightning's Blade
Omni are you trying to maximize your envenom uptime or your dps, because these are two different optimization problems. Weaving in 3-combo envenoms is not guarranteed to increase your dps just because it increases your envenom uptime. In fact it's quite clear to me that in a 3 combo situation, you are supposed to get another mutilate in and do a 5-point envenom to maximize your dps.

If you are just maximizing your envenom uptime, then I misunderstood your whole point, and perhaps 3+ is the way to go for that.

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Old 12/11/09, 10:22 PM   #215
• Aldriana
Mike Tyson
 
Night Elf Rogue
 
Doomhammer
Whether 3+ envenoms can be a damage increase over 4+ envenoms in the abstract is actually a hard question, and I think it depends on your current stats to some extent. I will say that at every gear level I've tested, 4+ wins; however, I'm not ready to assert the inherent inferiority of 3+ finishers in circumstances where they can be woven in without clipping envenoms.

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Old 12/11/09, 10:50 PM   #216
Zky
Glass Joe
 
Dwarf Rogue
 
Mannoroth
Crit cap

I have a question about crit-cap and how I'm not understanding it. I'll be using Mavanas and his current gear set and spec as a model.

Assuming that it is an ideal situation with proper raid synergy he'll get:

5% from - Blessing of Kings/Mark of the Wild/Horn of Winter or Strength of Earth Totem
5% from - Rampage/Leader of the Pack
3% from - Heart of the Crusader/Totem of Wrath/Master Poisoner

So that's 13% from Raid buffs.

Mavanas's crit is 47% unbuffed. So Mavanas's total crit raid buffed is (47) + (13) = 60

Taking a gander over at World of Warcraft Rogue Crit Cap Calculator to determine his crit cap, is 73% vs a Boss. Without his trinket, its 69%. One can estimate that with Greatness proc, his crit would be 65% so hes under, no?

I just wanted to verify that I was correctly calculating crit-cap raid buffed. Thanks.

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Old 12/11/09, 11:29 PM   #217
Omniwank
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Blood Elf Rogue
 
Illidan
Mavanas, the way I currently run my rotation is with an emphasis on maximizing 4cp chains while constantly maintaining the Envenom buff. In essence it is running a primarily 4+ cycle with a 3+ cycle when the Envenom buff warrants it. In preparation for bad RNG, I usually pool energy during solid 4cp chains and before every Envenom, clipping it at less than .5 seconds for the extra IP proc. It's typically good to have an energy stock of around 10-20 in case you don't get returns from RS and Ruthlessness.

Keep in mind that while it is impossible to maintain 100% uptime, cooldowns can more than make up for bad RNG. I usually blow my cooldowns (i.e. Vanish) liberally, but Arcane Torrent and Thistle Tea are very clutch in maintaining Mutilate cycles. Energy drought? Just sip some tea. 0cp drought? Bust Vanish if its available. The best way to counter the BS RNG of Mutilate is to simply prepare and counteract it with everything at your disposal. On my Saurfang parse, I did have bad RNG in the second half of the fight, but the 3+ cycle absolutely saved it. It is still a dice roll regardless, but 3+ seems to be the proper choice because you can maintain the Envenom buff even when RNG is not in your favor.

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Old 12/12/09, 10:31 AM   #218
ShadowEric
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Human Rogue
 
Terenas
Originally Posted by Zky View Post
I have a question about crit-cap and how I'm not understanding it. I'll be using Mavanas and his current gear set and spec as a model.

Assuming that it is an ideal situation with proper raid synergy he'll get:

5% from - Blessing of Kings/Mark of the Wild/Horn of Winter or Strength of Earth Totem
5% from - Rampage/Leader of the Pack
3% from - Heart of the Crusader/Totem of Wrath/Master Poisoner

So that's 13% from Raid buffs.

Mavanas's crit is 47% unbuffed. So Mavanas's total crit raid buffed is (47) + (13) = 60

Taking a gander over at World of Warcraft Rogue Crit Cap Calculator to determine his crit cap, is 73% vs a Boss. Without his trinket, its 69%. One can estimate that with Greatness proc, his crit would be 65% so hes under, no?

I just wanted to verify that I was correctly calculating crit-cap raid buffed. Thanks.
That crit cap calculator is wrong. It uses the old formula 100 - Dodges - Misses - Glances + 4.8 which is incorrect. The correct crit cap formula is 100 - D - M - G, as demonstrated in http://elitistjerks.com/f31/t76785-c..._combat_table/.

Using your Mavanas example, his crit cap is therefore 68.8%. Or is 64.9% without his Shard of the Crystal Heart. I also don't see 47% crit chance unbuffed on his armory profile, I see 44% at this time. Finally, your 5% from Kings/GotW/HoW is a bit on the high side. It's closer to 4% for Mavanas with these 3 buffs.

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Old 12/12/09, 3:36 PM   #219
Mavanas
Great Tiger
 
Night Elf Rogue
 
Lightning's Blade
Omni -

I was thinking more about your strategy with weaving in 3-combo point envenoms if the buff is running out, but going 4+ otherwise. Just adding up numbers to see if it even makes sense. Because you are not providing any logic for why you are using it other than that envenom buff is very powerful. Which is obviously true, but the difference in damage of 3 point envenom and 5 point envenom is also pretty substantial (and 5-pt envenom also costs less due to RS on average).

Anyway, before I even go to the simulator with this, I am going to do some napkin math, but I am going to use your gear as an example since I already have it all entered. With that gear, your 5-pt envenom on average does 11k while 3pt envenom does 6.6k. You are doing 1.089 main hand attacks per second and 1.4 offhand attacks per second without heroism (1.3 times more during heroism). IP on average does 1825 damage, so the benefit of envenom buff is 767 dps without heroism and 997 dps with heroism. Also your FA gives you 2.6 energy per second without heroism, and 3.4 energy per second during heroism.

So now let's imagine a situation when your envenom buff is about to run out, you have 3 combo points and you need to decide whether you envenom now with what you have, or you go for one more mutilate and then do a 5pt envenom. I am trying to find out how much envenom time you gain and what is the damage benefit of that. You are now sitting at a minimum of 35 energy to do the envenom. In order to do another mutilate and an envenom, you would need around 87.3 energy (counting an envenom plus mutilate less expected FA from mutilate, given your crit rate). Thus you need to wait 4.15 seconds, or basically this is the envenom uptime you are losing just now by waiting for the 5 combo points. The damage equivalent of this wait is 3180, plus your next mutilate is done under the effect of envenom, so you gain another 704 on both mutilate attacks, for a total of 3884 damage.

So basically your gain through envenom uptime is 3884 damage, but you lose 4.4k in envenom damage, not even counting the loss of energy through RS. During heroism, your IP gain goes up, but your wait time goes down due to FA, so altogether you gain 4597 damage, which is just above the difference in envenom damage.

Note that I was conservative in that I assumed that your 3-point envenom procced RS, because otherwise you would still lose envenom uptime in this scenario (your 4 seconds of envenom will run out and you would not have enough energy to do a mutilate + envenom to keep the buff up). I also did not take into account that the 5 point envenom will also have two extra seconds of enevenom time which could potentially be used to increase envenom uptime by some amount later on, even if it's less than 2 seconds. I was also conservative in assuming that you only had 35 energy when you faced your choice because normally you would have more, and you would not lose the full 4 seconds waiting.

So it seems to me that at least with your gear, it is not worth the effort, and simple 4+ strategy trying to maximize envenom uptime when possible would yield more damage.

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Old 12/12/09, 5:25 PM   #220
Omniwank
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Illidan
Are you doing your calculations using 51/18/2 or 51/13/7? That needs to be specified first because the math is going to be different, and honestly with 51/18/2 there's really no point aiming for high Envenom uptime because it's impossible considering the lack of energy gains. The logic behind manipulating RNG for Envenom uptime can be derived by how close 3+ and 4+ cycles are coming out on the spreadsheets. The 4+ cycle is static but at the same time unforgiving when it comes to Envenom uptime, while the 3+ cycle - according to Aldriana's observations - is generating too much uptime for one to spend. A middle ground between these two that uses the best option for the situation, almost always depending on Envenom uptime and possible RNG, should come out higher in damage.

You are on the right track with your calculations but you need to take everything another step further in the cycle to compare the output of each option due to RNG. Here is where it gets complicated, but in your example what needs to be calculated is the damage difference with the worst possible RNG. For the 3+ Envenom, it is possible to have no procs from either RS or Ruthlessness, which leaves the player with low energy and no combo points. The player's option from there is to Mutilate again into a 3cp Envenom. The ability to maintain the buff will depend primarily on how much energy you have, and partly on your gear. If you assume only 35 energy, then it is possible to lose some uptime. This is where pooling your energy during stable 4cp chains is ideal, but to stay on track generally a player in a 25man raid should be able to 'save' the buff. From there it leads to another RNG dice roll, but if you calculate the worst possible scenario for a 0 RS and 0 Ruthlessness on a 3+ cycle you can just add that for equivalent parts of the 4+ cycle.

Now, from that same point (3cps with Envenom running out), we must calculate the worst possible RNG for the next step. If you Mutilate instead of Envenom, you gain 2 cps, but lose Envenom uptime, 20 energy, and damage ( comparison of 3cp Envenom vs Mutilate). At 5cps, you then Envenom, no Ruthlessness and depending on the spec, no RS. That leaves you with 0 cps, low energy, and 6 seconds to get back to a 5cp Envenom (the only option in 4+ cycle). Once all that is calculated, it then has to be synched with the same amount of time that would of spent on the 3+ option, and that's where the math is pretty involved. From field testing the 3+ cycle should deal with the worst RNG better, so you should find the same conclusion if you can beast those calculations.

The purpose of comparing worst possible RNG outcomes of 3v4 cycles is that if 3+ cycles are better with dealing bad RNG at the '3cp with Envenom wearing out' scenario, then it is worth it to take the risk with the Envenom because its positive RNG (an RS and Ruthlessness proc) will direct you right back into 4cp chains, which is the highest damage scenario anyway. And if it doesn't, you can go right back to another dice roll while minimizing the bad RNG via Envenom uptime.

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Old 12/12/09, 5:45 PM   #221
Joigahdenn
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Cenarius
Maybe I am misunderstanding the larger debate going on here, but what I have to say should generally apply. Simply from a statistics perspective you can't just analyze the worst possible RNG and leave out the best. If Mavanas calculates damage loss as a result of the worst RNG, he'd also need to calculate damage gain from the best possible RNG to offset the skewed result he'd be getting (if you always assume the worst possible RNG, you'll start clipping your envenom uptime once you run into "normal" RNG or even "good" RNG). You can't just work at one of of a distribution, thats not how RNG works.

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Old 12/12/09, 6:09 PM   #222
Omniwank
Von Kaiser
 
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Illidan
Originally Posted by Joigahdenn View Post
Maybe I am misunderstanding the larger debate going on here, but what I have to say should generally apply. Simply from a statistics perspective you can't just analyze the worst possible RNG and leave out the best. If Mavanas calculates damage loss as a result of the worst RNG, he'd also need to calculate damage gain from the best possible RNG to offset the skewed result he'd be getting (if you always assume the worst possible RNG, you'll start clipping your envenom uptime once you run into "normal" RNG or even "good" RNG). You can't just work at one of of a distribution, thats not how RNG works.
Yes, but this needs to be taken one step at a time as the math is very complicated.

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Old 12/12/09, 6:55 PM   #223
Mavanas
Great Tiger
 
Night Elf Rogue
 
Lightning's Blade
I analyzed the best-case scenario for 3-point envenoms to be viable versus choosing to do another mutilate and then a 5-point envenom. If it does not compete in that case, the gap between those two options will be only larger in other cases.

Originally Posted by Omniwank View Post
Are you doing your calculations using 51/18/2 or 51/13/7? That needs to be specified first because the math is going to be different, and honestly with 51/18/2 there's really no point aiming for high Envenom uptime because it's impossible considering the lack of energy gains.
I had 51/13/7 in mind, although it never appears in the calculations. If you start getting into energy consideration, 3-point finishers suffer even more.

Originally Posted by Omniwank
You are on the right track with your calculations but you need to take everything another step further in the cycle to compare the output of each option due to RNG. Here is where it gets complicated, but in your example what needs to be calculated is the damage difference with the worst possible RNG. For the 3+ Envenom, it is possible to have no procs from either RS or Ruthlessness, which leaves the player with low energy and no combo points. The player's option from there is to Mutilate again into a 3cp Envenom. The ability to maintain the buff will depend primarily on how much energy you have, and partly on your gear. If you assume only 35 energy, then it is possible to lose some uptime. This is where pooling your energy during stable 4cp chains is ideal, but to stay on track generally a player in a 25man raid should be able to 'save' the buff. From there it leads to another RNG dice roll, but if you calculate the worst possible scenario for a 0 RS and 0 Ruthlessness on a 3+ cycle you can just add that for equivalent parts of the 4+ cycle.
Please analyze carefully what I wrote. If you have more than 35 energy at the start, you lose less envenom uptime by choosing to go for 5 combo points. If your 3-point envenom does not proc RS, it will be an even bigger loss for going that way instead of choosing to use a 5-point envenom.

Originally Posted by Omniwank
Now, from that same point (3cps with Envenom running out), we must calculate the worst possible RNG for the next step. If you Mutilate instead of Envenom, you gain 2 cps, but lose Envenom uptime, 20 energy, and damage ( comparison of 3cp Envenom vs Mutilate). At 5cps, you then Envenom, no Ruthlessness and depending on the spec, no RS. That leaves you with 0 cps, low energy, and 6 seconds to get back to a 5cp Envenom (the only option in 4+ cycle). Once all that is calculated, it then has to be synched with the same amount of time that would of spent on the 3+ option, and that's where the math is pretty involved. From field testing the 3+ cycle should deal with the worst RNG better, so you should find the same conclusion if you can beast those calculations.
You just did not understand the whole setup. I am not comparing a 3-point envenom to a mutilate and start subtracting energy or adding combo points. I am comparing two cases:
A. Envenom early then go on with a mutilate
B. Reverse the order, mutilate first to get to 5 points, only then envenom
Under case A, you gain envenom uptime, so you get more IP damage from autoattacks and one extra mutilate under the effect of envenom. Under case B, I lose envenom uptime, but I gain a bigger envenom damage. I also may gain energy relative to using a 3-point envenom due to RS, but this argument is not even necessary to show that path B is preferable.

It is a very straightforward analysis and it shows that path B comes out ahead without heroism. Under heroism effect, the two are almost equal, but if you take into account energy differences, path B will still end up ahead.

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Old 12/12/09, 7:43 PM   #224
Omniwank
Von Kaiser
 
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Blood Elf Rogue
 
Illidan
I understand your analysis, and it is sound. The problem is that you are analyzing only a small section of the rotation that doesn't encompass the entire point of doing a 3+ cycle in the first place. Yes, part of the reason is to maximize Envenom uptime, but it is equally important to minimize bad RNG. In your analysis, your claim is that going the 5cp route is ~600 more damage total, but you completely ignore the fact that in the 3+ situation you are sitting on 3 (possibly 4) combo points, while in the 4+ situation you have the possibility of only 1 combo point. Those cps equate to damage currency (a lot more than 600 damage, by the way), so stopping the analysis at the point you did doesn't really conclude anything.

Now, as I've said the math from that point gets very complicated, but you absolutely have to analyze where each cycle leaves you in each possible RNG scenario. For the purpose of this discussion, however, the worst possible RNG is primarily important because the cycle I do only resorts to 3+ when RNG is bad. If a 3+ cycle sustains more damage in the worst case scenario, then it should be worth it - under those specific conditions - because the best scenario of both cycles is the same (RS and Ruthlessness return), with the 3+ cycle just having more chances of landing it, meaning it has the possibility of minimizing a bad RNG streak during a normal 4+ cycle.

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Old 12/18/09, 3:59 PM   #225
Linkourne
Glass Joe
 
Goblin Rogue
 
Black Dragonflight
First off I want to say thanks for all the work you guys are doing with the spreadsheet and simsheets.

To explain a little about my background real quick, my main is a Mage and hence that is my focus since it is my raiding toon. However I've been gearing up my Rogue a lot lately and have started to get into raids on this toon as well. The amount of theorycrafting involved regarding the Mutilate spec in 3.3 is absolutely amazing to me. I have a few friends in game who do some theorycrafting as well and I bounce ideas off of them quite a bit but I had a few that are still unanswered so I'd like to see what your opinions on these matters are. *If this is posted in the wrong section forgive me, however they all regard the Mutilate cycle so I thought this would be the right thread.


First question I have is that reading through all of your threads I see for mutilate you have one of two options for specs, a 51/13/7 vs 51/18/2. However I have a question regarding a possible 51/15/5 spec where you max out Relentless Strikes and put 0 points in Opportunity. I realize that losing the Lightning Reflexes is a DPS loss when swapping targets frequently in a fight but I want to focus on a tank and spank like Saurfang. Unfortunately I don't have 300 logs to browse through and I'm still new to WoL but in MY experience and that of talking with a few other rogues in game, the Mutilate damage in comparison with Instant Poison damage or melee damage is always 3rd or 4th on the total damage done list. With that being the case, would putting 2 points in Opportunity for a 20% damage increase be worth it for an abilitythat's coming in 3rd on damage versus a 2% total melee crit chance increase?
To relate this to the topics above regarding a very in depth debate regarding using a +3 combo point rotation followed with an envenom vs a +4 combo point rotation followed by an envenom and trying to determine which is better, possible clipping of the envenom buff with a +3cp rotation or having the envenom hit hardeer but have the buff run out in +4cp rotation. If you're running a 3+cp cycle and doing Mut, Envenom, Mut, Envenom...etc you'd have less overall Mutilates versus a 4+cp cycle where you Mut, Mut, Envenom, Mut, Mut, Envenom thus making the +damage to Mutilate from Opportunity being even less desirable for a 3+cp rotation. So I know its kind of a long way to get here but my question would be, why is a 51/15/5 spec not being considered in these calculations? Is there something I'm missing?


My second question is actually an idea that my friend brought up to me who has been playing Mutilate specs since the start of BC. Prior to 3.3 it was a no brainier to put Instant Poison on your Main Hand and Deadly Posion on your Off Hand weapons, but with the 3.3 Patch changes to Deadly Poison is this still the absolute truth?

"Deadly Poison: In addition to its existing effects, when a rogue applies Deadly Poison to a target which has already reached the maximum number of applications, this will also trigger the poison which the rogue is using on his or her other weapon."

My thought process (possibly flawed) is this: If you decided to make a swap and put DP on your MH and IP on your OH you would increase the ramp-up-time of getting a 5 stack of DP on the target with standard melee swings plus special attacks like mutilate or envenom/rupture. IF you get to the 5 stack of DP quicker, that would mean each time the DP hits after that point you are also hitting with IP. Now if i'm not mistaken IP is based off of a modifier from your AP and not the weapon speed or dps. So putting it on the lower DPS and quicker weapon of your offhand would do no actual damage reduction to the proc of Instant Poison. Instead it would do two things, increase the number of times IP hits the target with white attacks due to a quicker OH speed, but it would reduce the number of times IP hits the target on a special attack (should still hit on mut but not envenom/rupture). Now before 3.3 it was argued that having IP hit a few less times on white attacks (with a slower MH weapon speed) and more on special attacks was better. But if IP is hitting every time DP hits after a 5-stack, (white hits, plus all special attacks) would that added number of IP hits from DP be enough to make up for the loss of IP on all special attacks if it was on your OH weapon?

Now you mix that in with the theorcrafting from above, and if you run a 51/15/5 or 51/13/7 spec where you're really focusing on a 3+cp rotation so you have maximum envenom up-time, the envenom buff will give a 75% increased frequency of applying Instant Poison which is now on your offhand and hitting more quickly. Plus 15% increase to applying DP gives 15% more increase of applying IP too.



I want to remind everyone that I'm not telling people to switch to a diff spec or they should swap weapon poisons. I'm simply bringing up questions that my level of knowledge is insufficient to answer. I hope you can understand what I'm asking, I've read through it many times trying to make it as clear as possible. So I thank you for any responses in advance.

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