Have you considered the "wasted" (if any) damage (i.e. damage that did not happen due to having the deadly poison weapon equipped) due to waiting for a switch? Have you wighted up the damage lost due to the possibility of a poison proc of the non-deadly poison weapon versus the damage of your mainhand?
i.e. (Mainhand swing + x Offhand swings + possible poison proc from mainhand - damage lost due to swing reset) > ( -damage lost due to swing reset + x offhand swings + x offhand poison procs)
Of course, "damage lost due to swing reset" will be in most cases higher in the scenario where you swap instantly than in the scenario where you wait for a mainhand strike, but does the possibility of extra poison procs weight up? I addition, over a long fight, how does the seconds lost due to waiting weight up versus a full round of instant / wound poison?
I'm just throwing my thoughts up in the air. There are many 'if's here, but overall, what is better?
I am worried a little about timing of swapping and swings.
- First of all, how do you determine when the next swing occurs? Do you assume the delay is the same as the previous one or you track the haste at every point of time?
- Second, I know that certain processes occur on the client side and some on the server side. How does this work into the exactness of swap timing? Is there a delay between when the addon issues a command to swap and when the swap actually occurs? Can it happen that by forcing the timing of swings and swaps you actually hurt yourself because the swap always occurs 100 miliseconds after the swing (just an arbitrary lag amount)?
You are still losing swing time when triggering off swings: The server swings and sends the swing notice to the client. The client receives the swing notice and sends the swap command to the server. The server receives the swap command and swaps. Network latency applies (twice), so the swing time gained by triggering off the swing event over letting the swap occur at random points into the swing is markedly less than what is possible in theory.
In terms of auto attack damage for the hand you are triggering from, if the swing trigger were competing against randomly distributed triggers, it's obvious that the swing trigger will win given most normal combinations of network latency and haste. Of course, there are other factors at play here. How much are you clipping your other hand's swing? How much poison damage are you losing by delaying the swap? Is your swing trigger actually competing against randomly distributed triggers?
The math is complicated enough that even a good function to estimate the inflection points will probably not be available by methods other than goode olde simulation. Of course, you can still test competing settings empirically. In my experience, triggering off MH swing + poison timer wins over triggering off only poison timer for the IP->DP swap. DP->IP ASAP swap wins over waiting for MH swing for Assassination fast-fast/fast. DP->IP on MH swing wins over ASAP swap for Assassination slow-fast/fast. Combat did slightly better with DP->IP ASAP swap over waiting for MH swap, but it was not a clear trend.
The method I used to determine which time to swap to deadly was pretty simple and you might want to look into it yourself Demi.
First off I have read, in this thread, that mutilate wishes to swap to deadly around 3 seconds remaining and combat should swap closer to four seconds. Simply set the 'time' to (ideal swap time) + (average time on weapon swing).
With a heavy haste mutilate set a main hand swing timer is usually just above one second. Duration on swing can vary between 'practically zero' and the full duration. Simple math, (0+MHSpeed)/2, of course finding the average swing timer on my dagger is roughly half a second. Add your desired swap time to this number and calibrate your addon with the total.
In practice, I've had my stack fall off once during the full ToC up to Anub; however, that may have been user error on my part. One problem I do see with using an addon over doing it manually is for cases when you wish to refresh the stack before leaving the target, such as Icehowl's crash. That being said, in this particular case the randomness of where he jumps to usually results in a lost stack anyways.
I know that I can override the the actual talents from your standard macro for 51/18/2, but I was just curious as to why you chose to take 2 points in Quick Recovery instead of Murder? I was under the impression that if your expertise capped, that talent is no longer useful (perhaps this is standard incase your not exp capped?). As you know, Murder is currently getting buffed on the PTR which may or may not come to fruition, but if it does, I think that will be a talent that can't be overlooked anymore.
That all being said, according the the spreadsheet, even though i'm not yet in BIS gear, wpn swapping ruptureless 51/18/2 is coming out ahead of the traditional 51/13/7 (even without regemming from 20agi to 20ap/10 haste). One thing i've noticed is that on a fight like Koralon where there is not alot of movement, 51/13/7 is coming out ahead by around 1k dps in reality (I typically do around 7k and only hit 6k y'day). Any insight as to why this might be? On a fight like Anub, I noticed a significant increase with the ruptureless cycle going the other way (1k or so). I've tried using both the macro with the blizz UI as well as the poisonswapper addon. It feels like to me it's much harder to be aware of your surroundings if your having to watch for when your DP is about to drop-off when having to do it manually.
Thanks,
I have a pretty good analytical method that I used before adding weapon swapping to simsheet to determine if weapon swapping was worthwhile. Based on that method, proper timing of swap to MH swing is definitely worth it. It adds about 60 dps (from 540 to 600). The only thing that the analytical method does not take into account is the interaction of GCD imposed by the weapon swapping and your regular rotation, but the effect of timing swaps to swings on that is very minimal.
Interaction with offhand swing we can also ignore, on average it does not matter if you time the swap randomly or you time it to your mainhand swing, the effect on the offhand white damage and poison damage should be zero on average since offhand swings are independent from mainhand swings. In other words, in both cases, I still expect that the swap will occur in the middle of the offhand swing.
Mavanas I'm having some peculiar results coming back from my simulator. Long story short is I'm due for a Death's Verdict here pretty soon and was wanting to check out the results, and which trinket to swap. I currently use DMC:G and Blood of the Old God running mutilate with a mix of 245/258 with a few choice 226 (belt/cloak from uld10). My gear is far from perfect or top of the line, but it is very solid. I run weapon swap, lightning reflexes, gem AP/Haste, and use the four piece.
This is the thing confusing me -- I swapped out BoTOG for DV258. The first time I ran the simulator it came out as a loss of dps, and the second time it came off as a minor increase (~20 dps). White hit simply can not be that valuable even with a poison build. Any hints on how to fix this?
Update: I ran the 245 version to see if I perhaps messed up the cells pertaining to the 258 somehow. The same thing happened --
Trial starts out as a ~150 dps upgrade, p-value staying very small. 20% in or so the p-value begins to jump rapidly and the dps slowly but steadily drops.
Update 2: Dropping the DMC:G instead of the BoTOG results in a 250 dps for an extended period of time, then dropping to +80 dps over the last section. P-value stayed steady at 0 for the majority of the trial. I find it hard to believe that the upgrade is only 80 dps, but perhaps I'm just misinformed.
One thing to add is that if you swap with 3 weapons of the same speed, your swings after the first swap will sync up and the benefits of swapping after a swing will probably be even greater. I run with 3x Bladebreaker and looked at one of my recent parse to see if the swings desynced at all and the only times that the swings aren't in sync are the few seconds before the first swap, and about 5x over a 3 minute fight where the largest variance was 11 ms (others were 4-6 ms) which is negligible.
This is the thing confusing me -- I swapped out BoTOG for DV258. The first time I ran the simulator it came out as a loss of dps, and the second time it came off as a minor increase (~20 dps). White hit simply can not be that valuable even with a poison build. Any hints on how to fix this?
Update: I ran the 245 version to see if I perhaps messed up the cells pertaining to the 258 somehow. The same thing happened --
Trial starts out as a ~150 dps upgrade, p-value staying very small. 20% in or so the p-value begins to jump rapidly and the dps slowly but steadily drops.
Update 2: Dropping the DMC:G instead of the BoTOG results in a 250 dps for an extended period of time, then dropping to +80 dps over the last section. P-value stayed steady at 0 for the majority of the trial. I find it hard to believe that the upgrade is only 80 dps, but perhaps I'm just misinformed.
You are most likely crit capping - having both DMC:G and Death's Verdict procs up.
The method I used to determine which time to swap to deadly was pretty simple and you might want to look into it yourself Demi.
First off I have read, in this thread, that mutilate wishes to swap to deadly around 3 seconds remaining and combat should swap closer to four seconds. Simply set the 'time' to (ideal swap time) + (average time on weapon swing).
The addon does indeed do this, though a little smarter. It sets the time-to-swap at (ideal swap time) + (time remaining until next swing). It's not perfect, but the intent is that if you have a 1.8 speed mainhand, are 1.0 sec through your swing, have your ideal swap time set at 3.0, then the mod will initiate a swap once the timer is under 3.8, in theory actually executing the swap at 3.0 seconds.
The observations about the instant swap to a damage poison being ideal are interesting. I'll have to do some testing and see what I come up with, as well. Admittedly, though, I am more of an implementation guy than a theorycrafter.
Axodry, I have quick recovery selected by default because as soon as you select murder talents, it calculates dps as if the target is murderable and you have murder talent, i.e. you are doing 4% more damage on average. If you want to see what your dps would be with murder talent but on a non-murderable target, out those two points into fleet footed or something that does not have any effect on dps in the simulation. Also I can't really comment on your observation regarding 51/18/2 vs 51/13/7 because I am not sure how you collect your "real" data. How do you make sure the buffs and their uptimes are fixed? Different buffs or lack thereof effect the two specs differently. What is the effect of your regular RNG? If you run the simulation 300 times and then look at backup, in those 300 times your dps may differ by 1k between minimum and maximum, that's RNG of a fight under pretty favorable conditions where you simply stand still and dps. If you add movement, varying buff uptimes, buffers dying, sunders falling off, varying reaction time, then the RNG grows even bigger. That is why real raid data is a fairly unreliable check for theorycrafting.
Vonlengo, check crit capping indeed. Also, while the simulation is running, any intermediate results are not very important. The variance of initial dps results is really small, so the dps at 20% progress is meaningless. The only number that matters is the final dps when the simulation has finished running.
How do you initiate the mutilate rupture-less cycle. First time user of this particular sheet. I see buttons on the DPS Strat tab but I seem to be missing one for rupture-less rotation. I do see a section at the bottom of this page, just not sure if i have to push one of the buttons to activate it, and if so, I dont have a button to push.
Also, for gemming, do I manually look at how many sockets I have on my toon and fill in at the bottom which ones I use? So if I have 3 +20agil gems, put 20 under the agil column along sockets 1 through 3?
The sheet automatically calculates how many sockets you have in your gear, but you still need to choose what gems you put in them. So yes just put 20 under agility to get a 20 agility gem socketed.
As for ruptureless mutilate, put 0 instead of 1 in the rupture column, where it says "use this ability."
Interaction with offhand swing we can also ignore, on average it does not matter if you time the swap randomly or you time it to your mainhand swing, the effect on the offhand white damage and poison damage should be zero on average since offhand swings are independent from mainhand swings. In other words, in both cases, I still expect that the swap will occur in the middle of the offhand swing.
You cannot reasonably do that because neither the DP-only swap strategy nor the DP+MH swap strategy clips the OH swings randomly. At any given setting, each strategy has its own characteristic OH swing clipping average which is almost never 50%. I scripted timing simulation tests to find the characteristic swing clipping averages for different settings when I was trying to decide how to script the swaps. In most cases, the introduction of minor fluctuation in latency and haste (on the order of Mongoose) did not change the characteristic clipping averages by much.
Take the DP->IP swap ASAP after DP refresh as the most obvious sanity check: You can reasonably assume that a DP refresh off Mutilate is independent of OH swing timing, but a DP refresh off OH swing is obviously not independent of OH swing timing. The server-side DP refresh may not coincide exactly with server-side swap, but the swap timing is indubitably not independent of the OH swing timing. To put it another way, the DP->IP swap in this case is disproportionately likely to occur shortly after an OH swing, so the average OH swing clip time is significantly less than "midway."
The discrete probability constraints for the other cases are not as pronounced as the above case, but they are there.
but I have one little problem with the spreadsheet, once i save the file, The spreadsheet doesn't work anymore, the "run dps simulation" button and all of the button's doesn't work
Could you explain how you derived these values, Mavanas? From what I see in the DPS Output sheet, it looks like you add 50 to each stat and use 1000 iterations - is that correct?
Originally Posted by Mavanas
I subtract 50 of each stat and then use 10,000 iterations to calculate EP values.
Hey Mavanas, if its not too much to ask, can u post a guide about how to determine EP values, I tried what u stated in your quote, for -50 all stats, i jus added an extra gem socket and entered -50 all stats as its value and ran the simulator with 10000 iterations, and by the looks of my results I believe I'm doing something wrong.
Im a bit confused about mavanas' 3.2.2 BiS gear on page 15, especially about this combat gemming...
With BiS gear, weapon swap and 18 51 2 spec gemming hit till white cap and the rest haste?
I thought ArPen softcap with runestone or full ArPen without runestone is the way to go?
Ok I thought I found another problem, but it turned out to not be the case.
Quick Info
Bombs on cooldown
Tricks trading
Ruptureless
Weapon Swapping
Quick Recovery over Murder
Running greatness + 258-DV: crit cap 66.7% and crit sitting at 61.4% -- 8971 DPS
Running greatness + BotOG: crit cap 70% and crit sitting at 54.7% -- 9039 DPS
Running BotOG+ 258-DV: crit cap 70% and crit sitting at 56.3% -- 9439 DPS
Perhaps I'm just grossly underestimating Blood of the Old God for the poison build? I still have a hard time believing that Death's Verdict is a downgrade from BotOG. Is there anything else I might want to check out?
EDIT2: Double DV ends up at 9514 dps. Now I'm very confused and my BotOG theory seems unsupported at this point.
Last edited by Vonlego : 11/15/09 at 7:19 PM.
Reason: New Info
Vonlego can you pm me your entire gear list, so I can see what's going on myself. It is also surprising to me to see BoTOG beat DV258, unless you are getting crit capped hardcore. DV is supposed to be 160 dps ahead even with highest EP values of hit I've seen.
Johanna, hit and haste gain a lot of value as you do weapon swapping with combat. By BiS they start beating attack power and agility.
Rogi, sounds like you do not have the right formula for EP. check line 1016 in DPS output tab.
I doubt BotOG can ever be found to be better than DV, and during the double DV set up there is still a dps increase from Blood to the 245 DV.
The anomaly here is the greatness together with death's verdict, losing blood of the old god. I'm not crit capping, and I still am well over hit goals.
I am not seeing what you are seeing Vonlego. In my copy, which as far as the two trinkets are concerned, should be the same as the last released version, DV258 is ahead of BoTOG by about 180 dps, which is where I expect it to be. So my guess is you messed up your file somehow. Maybe you sorted the trinket range in the Gear tab, that screws up all links. Can you redownload the version from the front page and check the results again?
P.S. This is not related to you, but while checking something for you, I realized there could potentially be another case of crit capping: mutilate crit capping. This is when mutilate crit rate reaches 100%. Assuming you have no points in turn the tables, but have 4-piece bonus, your mutilate gets another 20% crit. So if your crit from gear and procs reaches 80%, you will be crit capped. You can get up to 23% crit from procs (double mongoose, DV258 and DM), so if your crit from gear is 57%, which is possible in BiS and agility gemming, you will be mutilate crit capped.
Alright thanks for all your help, sorry to take so much of your time on what seems to be user error. In order to find out which trinket to drop I'll download the sheet again and see what happens.
Rogi, sounds like you do not have the right formula for EP. check line 1016 in DPS output tab.
1 more question, you -50 stats n set iterations to 10000, doesn't that take hours for you? Since you have to run the simulation like 8 times to get all the EP values. Do you let it run for the entire duration or cancel it earlier?
and also by -50 stats, do u mean agi, stam and str? or -50 to everything?
First you run the base case, all 10k iterations. Then change each dps stat by 50 and rerun it 10k times. So yeah it takes 12 hours or so to run the whole thing. You can't interrupt it.
There is a macro that does it. I think it is called EP_calc in the sheet. If you are comfortable with changing the formulas from calculating EP values for 1000 iterations to doing it for 10,000 iterations, you can run the macro and then calculate the averages and EP values at the bottom.
Just a warning, I run EP values in a separate copy because EP_calc will erase all formulas at the bottom of DPS output page since they are made for 1k iterations not 10k. And also when I run the EP values, I make sure that lowering a stat by 50 will not change my caps. I.e going below the poison cap, going below the expertise cap etc.
In your latest version, 3.2.2e, the combat simulation breaks if I equip any combination of Victor's Call Heroic / Mark of Supremacy / Wrathstone as at least one of my trinkets.
Thanks for the report. I indeed forgot to update support for the three on-use trinkets. It's all fixed now, and the link should be updated to reflect the change.
11/12/09, 7:32 AM
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