Originally Posted by Rhaegal
I don't think I'm leaving anything out, but someone please confirm:
Uptime for HW spam = 1-((1-crit%)^(15/(2.5/(1+(haste rating/1577)))))
Uptime for LHW spam = 1-((1-crit%)^(15/(1.5/(1+(haste rating/1577)))))
Where 15 is the duration in seconds, and 1.5 and 2.5 are the cast times of Lesser Healing Wave and Healing Wave in seconds. I calculated 46.9% uptime for HW spam and 65.1% uptime for LHW spam for a shaman with 10% total spell crit. That seems a little high? Of course, it may seem high because I rarely chain cast without canceling any.
[Edit] That priest post is probably more practically helpful, since it accounts for not chain casting. The above formulas should work in the event that you do have to for whatever reason.
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This is not true uptime though.
Consider two extremes you have 25 crit heals out of 150 heals with a heal landing every 2.5 secs.
Your AF uptime if the 25 crits happen in a row would be 24*2.5+15=75secs
If you crit every 6th heal you would have 25*15=375secs
edit: Just to be clear your math is right but it does not = uptime
it does = % chance you will refresh AF before it expires