Elitist Jerks EnhSim, DPS simulator

09/15/08, 11:10 AM   #151
Rhaegal
Don Flamenco

Pandaren Monk

Zul'Jin
It's not a question of the math. The statistics are obvious, but that's not the way it's being presented. If it was simple statistics, it never would have been a major topic of interest. Read these two sentences, Malan:

 When you dual wield weapons, the chance on each landed attack outside the 3-second cooldown is approximatedly 36%, if and only if both weapons are imbued with Windfury.
 When you remove the ineligible hits the observed proc rate from the eligible hits becomes 36%.
Those are directly from the TTT, and are in direct contradiction to what you're saying here today. The TTT says that each hit has a 36% chance to proc WF, and you're saying that every two hits have a 36% chance to proc WF. Those are very different statements.

Stand back! I'm going to try SCIENCE!

 09/15/08, 12:14 PM #152 Levva In Awe of Shocks     Levva Draenei Shaman   Khadgar (EU) Malan is correct, and strangely you are correct too Rhaegal but both expressing it in different ways It is very very simple from a programming point of view. When a weapon MH or OH lands a hit do the following psuedo code check ```if weaponHasWF_embue AND not WFProcced then if rnd()<0.2 then -- WF procced on weapon WFprocced = true StartWFCooldown() DoWFDamageCalcs() end end``` ie: its a FLAT 20% check to see if WF has procced but you MUST make sure the 3sec CD is not active. Doing an INDEPENDENT check for each weapon at 20% mathematically means that "outside the 3-second cooldown" (the key bit in the quoted text) the chance is 36% EXACTLY as Malan quoted. The critical part is that you ONLY check a WF outside the CD. This is why off-hands can "steal" a WF proc, as its a single check per hit, if WF is available then there is a 20% chance of a proc for the OH. If you run the sim with this calc you should then see WF proc rates coming out at 36% OF ELIGIBLE HITS as predicted. However only 20% of ALL HITS. Last edited by Levva : 09/15/08 at 12:37 PM.
 09/15/08, 12:20 PM #153 Pitbuller King Hippo   Pitbuller Tauren Shaman   Wildhammer (EU) Levva: Statistic still say 36%. Go and check wws. I think they have coded it "wrong" and when you have double wf game check wf proc twice per hit. And that way give 36% proc chance. Slow, slower, shaman weapon.
 09/15/08, 12:23 PM #154 Levva In Awe of Shocks     Levva Draenei Shaman   Khadgar (EU) It is incredibly confusing the various wording. I'm reasonably confident the code I wrote is how it works however I am very open to being proved wrong as this is a critical part of the sim and NEEDS to be correct. Since the article refers to calcs originally done by Disquette and he has popped his head in this thread in the last couple of days could he give any indication of what he found (or repost original thread)?
09/15/08, 12:32 PM   #155
Levva
In Awe of Shocks

Draenei Shaman

 Originally Posted by tukez `(mwsAverage - 1.96*mwsSD) to (mwsAverage + 1.96*mwsSD)` be this `(mwsAverage - 0.96*mwsSD) to (mwsAverage + 0.96*mwsSD)`
No its most definitely 1.96 * sample standard deviation to give a 95% confidence interval.

1 SD gives only about a 68.27% confidence interval (0.96 would be less)
2 SD gives 95.450% confidence

It is normal however to use 1.96 SDs to give a 95% confidence interval. See Standard deviation - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

The large variance you are seeing just shows how random the time taken is with low stacks.

However if we are seeing that taking less than 5/5 MW gives markedly less dps then the average time to achieve 5 stacks is not perhaps not a worthwhile statistic to display after all.

 09/15/08, 12:51 PM #156 Disquette doop doop de doooo     Discoepfeand Human Rogue   Sargeras Hello all. First, the best way to settle any sort of argument like this is by testing for one's self That having been said, when I did my tests, my conclusions are: 1) Once you windfury, you can't windfury again for 3 seconds. 2) After those 3 seconds, any given attack has a 36% chance when dual-wielding (approx, the math behind it makes 36% look like a very attractive candidate) to proc another windfury. If you're willing to spend a bit of time in blasted lands, anyone can verify or disprove this. http://us.battle.net/wow/en/forum/to...6766?page=3#41 Let me map a priority list out for you so that you can refer to it in the future: 1. Money 2. Money 3. PvE 4. Mages 5. Companion pets 6. PvP
09/15/08, 12:52 PM   #157
Malan
Mike Tyson

Malan
Tauren Shaman

No WoW Account
 Originally Posted by Pitbuller Levva: Statistic still say 36%. Go and check wws. I think they have coded it "wrong" and when you have double wf game check wf proc twice per hit. And that way give 36% proc chance.
I think you are calculating it wrong Pitbuller.

I have a BT parse from a weeks ago vs Brutallus.
267 Windfury "hits" (non crit), 105 Windfury critical hits, 4 windfuries parried
Total Windfury attacks: 376

However, WWS counts each windfury hit as unique, ie, the 2 instant attacks are each counted as a unique incident. Therefore, divide 376 by 2.
Total number of actual windfury procs is therefore 188.

On the same parse I had 631 "hits" and 308 crits for a total of 939 swings that connected.

188/939 = 0.20021 or ~20%

So my overall observed proc rate from my *total* number of hits is 20%. Which is what I said above. What you are saying is that if you make some approximations for number of hits outside the cooldown that you see 36%. Which is exactly what I said as well. Outside of the cooldown there is a 36% chance of a windfury. When taken into account for the total data set though its still a 20% effect.

 09/15/08, 1:38 PM #158 Roywyn Bald Bull     Roywyn Gnome Mage   No WoW Account (EU) There has been a test recently that checked that when you perform a Stormstrike, your MH checks first for a WF proc, then your OH checks for a WF proc. (Hence you get more PH procs.) The test proved "en passant" that the WF proc rate was 36% on each unless I'm completele mistaken. The test was done by standing sideways to a Blasted Land servant so you could Stormstrike and get Windfury hit, but not get white hits. That positioning still works on beta, so you can easily do the test there/on the PTR. (If Windfury works that is.) Chaotic Meta Gems in Cataclysm: http://elitistjerks.com/f75/t106009-...2/#post1794256 DPS spec and class comparison in Naxxramas gear: http://code.google.com/p/simulationc...i/SampleOutput The Blue Bar and you - the complete Fire Mage 2.4 mana compendium: http://elitistjerks.com/658230-post3191.html And [Timbal's Focusing Crystal] doesn't proc on AM. Neither does [The Egg of Mortal Essence] since 3.1.
09/15/08, 2:07 PM   #159
Xoya
Bald Bull

Xoya
Orc Shaman

No WoW Account
 Originally Posted by Malan The actual observed proc rate will be 20% if you examined a combat log, but while Dual Wielding each eligible hit from both hands (ie, those hits made outside the WF cooldown) have a combined 36% chance of one of the two weapons producing a proc. Each hand still has a 20% chance to proc when viewed individually though.
 Originally Posted by Malan Yah you're doing it wrong. Each hand still has a 20% chance to proc, its just that when you view the system as a whole the proc chance is 36% for any hand to proc. For your sim each hand should have a 20% chance to proc (but locks out the other hand obviously). Like I said, its just a statistical thing. The 36% number is just saying "If you have windfury on both hands, you have a better chance of getting a proc", but you'll still only see an overall proc rate of 20% of your total eligible hits.
 Originally Posted by Malan So my overall observed proc rate from my *total* number of hits is 20%. Which is what I said above. What you are saying is that if you make some approximations for number of hits outside the cooldown that you see 36%. Which is exactly what I said as well. Outside of the cooldown there is a 36% chance of a windfury. When taken into account for the total data set though its still a 20% effect.
Underlines mine.

You really didn't say "exactly" those things. You said that each individual hand has a 20% chance to hit even when outside the windfury cooldown and that only as a combination of two hits do we see a 36% proc chance. Disquette has just told us that each individual hand has a 36% chance to hit when outside the windfury cooldown. Because of the 3-second cooldown, the observed proc rate when considering all hits is 20%.

Again, to reiterate, you said that "eligible hits" have a 20% chance to proc windfury. Disquette did not say that. If "eligible hits" had only a 20% chance to proc windfury, because of the 3-second internal cooldown we would see an observed proc rate on all hits of much less than 20%.

I know that you're a smart guy, Malan, but you contradicted yourself, and the vitriol and self-righteousness is getting really tiresome. You were wrong, other people were interpreting the TTT correctly and you were not, and If I get warned for this, whatever.

09/15/08, 2:40 PM   #160
Rouncer

Orc Shaman

Mal'Ganis
 Originally Posted by Roywyn There has been a test recently that checked that when you perform a Stormstrike, your MH checks first for a WF proc, then your OH checks for a WF proc. (Hence you get more PH procs.) The test proved "en passant" that the WF proc rate was 36% on each unless I'm completele mistaken. The test was done by standing sideways to a Blasted Land servant so you could Stormstrike and get Windfury hit, but not get white hits. That positioning still works on beta, so you can easily do the test there/on the PTR. (If Windfury works that is.)
I've been spending a good deal of my free time this morning looking for that testing in the old enhancement thread (no luck so far) but that was what I remembered about it as well.

Basically Blizzard half-assed the coding for Windfury and any strike when dual wielding (wf/wf) would get the 36% chance to proc when off cooldown. Which integrates very well with Stormstrike since Stormstrike checks for a Mainhand proc before it checks for an offhand proc.

I'll keep looking but that's what I remember being the final outcome from ingame testing regarding it.

 09/15/08, 3:32 PM #161 fauxpas Von Kaiser   Console Draenei Shaman   Destromath (EU) Heh, the last two pages were extremely funny. We've had dualwielding + 3 Sec WF Cooldown for how long now? 1,5years? And it's still not obvious how it works, apparently. I'll try to find a wording that makes it crystal clear. When you are outside the Windfury cooldown and attack with both weapons simultaneously, is it: a) P(WFProc) = 0,36 + ((1-0,36)*0,36) = 0,5904 OR b) P(WFProc) = 0,2 + ((1-0,2)*0,2) = 0,36
09/15/08, 4:20 PM   #162
Malan
Mike Tyson

Malan
Tauren Shaman

No WoW Account
 Originally Posted by Xoya other people were interpreting the TTT correctly and you were not
That's pretty funny considering.

Last edited by Malan : 09/15/08 at 4:28 PM.

 09/15/08, 5:26 PM #163 tukez Don Flamenco   Karvanaamari Orc Shaman   Dragonblight (EU) Hey questions about glyphs. Can we use same type of glyph in multiple slots and do they stack? Can we use minor glyphs in major slot? Also, if you use Glyph of Flametongue Weapon and dual FT, do you get 4% spell crit? Is the Glyph of Stormstrike bonus damage additive or multiplicative to the existing 20%.
 09/15/08, 6:13 PM #164 tukez Don Flamenco   Karvanaamari Orc Shaman   Dragonblight (EU) Now that they change the armor ignore to armor penetration rating, does Executioner buff change to rating also? I guess static bonuses on items change to rating at least, what about trinket procs like Madness of the Betrayer? AFAIK, debuffs like Sunder Armor or Faerie Fire won't be converted to rating.
09/15/08, 6:36 PM   #165
Morelis
Piston Honda

Draenei Shaman

Lightbringer
 Originally Posted by Roywyn There has been a test recently that checked that when you perform a Stormstrike, your MH checks first for a WF proc, then your OH checks for a WF proc. (Hence you get more PH procs.) The test proved "en passant" that the WF proc rate was 36% on each unless I'm completele mistaken. The test was done by standing sideways to a Blasted Land servant so you could Stormstrike and get Windfury hit, but not get white hits. That positioning still works on beta, so you can easily do the test there/on the PTR. (If Windfury works that is.)
I was the one that did that testing, and it was posted in the think tank thread but it appears to have been purged at some point... I had done it to determine if the main hand is checked first on SS for WF procs(which it is) but the results also show the proc rate per weapon, not combined is indeed 36%.

Here's the WWS from the log I modified to show the separate procs, the only changes made to it were to descriptions and spell IDs to allow the WWS parser to display them separately:

Wow Web Stats

It's a bit annoying to see good testing thrown out.

 Elitist Jerks EnhSim, DPS simulator