EnhSim, DPS simulator - Page 6

tukez · 09/15/08, 6:51 AM

I read on the WotLK thread, that WF proc chance should be 18% on one hand, not 20% as I have it modeled in the sim currently. Did I just understand that post wrong? I use the 36% chance with dual WF.

tukez · 09/15/08, 7:02 AM

Originally Posted by frozndevl

Tukez, could you add the deathfrost enchant into the sim?

Yes, but I can't find any accurate info how it works.

This is what I have gathered so far.

150 frost damage, uses spell crit. Affected by CSD. Don't know is it affected by Elemental Fury or not.
50% proc chance for spells, 20-25s cooldown.
Maybe 8-11% for melee, no cooldown?
Melee and spell proc cooldowns are independent.

Raut · 09/15/08, 7:13 AM

Originally Posted by tukez

I read on the WotLK thread, that WF proc chance should be 18% on one hand, not 20% as I have it modeled in the sim currently. Did I just understand that post wrong? I use the 36% chance with dual WF.

I would also like to see some evidence to back this up. I know it was discussed some time ago, but I can't see any situation where 18% proc chance is gathered from live without a too small dataset to be predictable.

Is it referring to actual proc chance with miss and avoidance or including the WF silence or something like it?

Levva · 09/15/08, 7:59 AM

Originally Posted by tukez

Yeah I can, but tell me first:

1) How do I calculate that 90% treshold without recording every single MW stacking time? I don't know the maths. I think recording them all would slow the sim quite a bit and that is not what I want to do for a feature, which won't be used much.
2) Is it really necessary to know those times...you could just simulate it and see which gives the best dps?

Fairly simple, if you are recording the average time, which is just a time taken to get 5 stacks divided by number of MW5s achieved. ie: when 0 stacks note time, then note time when 5 stacks and increment a MW5 stacks count and time taken. Average is total time taken divided by count.

The 90% or slightly more commonly expressed 95% confidence interval for 5 stacks average time is given by using the sample standard deviation. So all you need to do is to track the total, the square of the total and the count.

Pseudo code:

if mws == 0 then
   mwsTimer = Now()
end
if mws == 5 then 
   mwsTimeTaken = Now()-mwsTimer
   mwsCount ++
   mwsTotalTime += mwsTimeTaken
   mwsSDTime += mwsTimeTaken ^2
end

At the end of the sim you do a couple of calcs to calculate average & SD :

mwsAverage = mwsTotalTime/mwsCount
mwsSD = sqrt((mwsSDTime/mwsCount)-(mwsAverage^2))

Then you simply report average time to get 5 MWs is mwsAverage, and 95% of the time it will take between (mwsAverage - 1.96*mwsSD) to (mwsAverage + 1.96*mwsSD)

That wording is sufficient, although really it should be that we are 95% confident that the time taken will fall between those two values.

So you see a simple summation as you go and storing 3 values which is really not a huge overhead, and shouldn't add any noticeable time to the sim.

tukez · 09/15/08, 8:06 AM

Originally Posted by Levva

Fairly simple, if you are recording the average time...

So you see a simple summation as you go and storing 3 values which is really not a huge overhead, and shouldn't add any noticeable time to the sim.

Thanks! I will add this to the next version.

Pitbuller · 09/15/08, 8:49 AM

DPS per point in maelstorm weapons.
0/0: 2876dps(-)
1/5: 3144dps(+286)
2/5: 3308dps(+164)
3/5: 3459dps(+151)
4/5: 3591dps(+133)
5/5: 3692dps(+101)

816dps talent. Even last point give over 100dps.

If you compare Maelstrorm weapon to other choices you will see that any build without maxed maelstorm is pointless and significant dps downgrade. If that new feature(avarage time per 5stack) slow sim even a bit then just dump it. There is no need to theorycraft about sub-optimal spec.

About windfury: Single wf = 20% and dual wf = 36%. 18% is wrong math(36% / 2) and you can ignore it. 36% come from shared cd and how it coded.(1-0.8^2)

Levva · 09/15/08, 9:08 AM

Originally Posted by Pitbuller

DPS per point in maelstorm weapons.
0/0: 2876dps(-)
1/5: 3144dps(+286)
2/5: 3308dps(+164)
3/5: 3459dps(+151)
4/5: 3591dps(+133)
5/5: 3692dps(+101)

816dps talent. Even last point give over 100dps.

If you compare Maelstrorm weapon to other choices you will see that any build without maxed maelstorm is pointless and significant dps downgrade. If that new feature(avarage time per 5stack) slow sim even a bit then just dump it. There is no need to theorycraft about sub-optimal spec.

About windfury: Single wf = 20% and dual wf = 36%. 18% is wrong math(36% / 2) and you can ignore it. 36% come from shared cd and how it coded.(1-0.8^2)

Ah but you are missing that those figures are from sim using OLD version of MW. ie: you need 5 points in it or you don't get instant cast. Now with the proposed change even 1 pt in Maelstrom Weapon will alllow you to get 5 stacks of MW and instant cast. The difference is it will take longer if you spec less than 5/5 thus it becomes important to understand the average time and the spread of time it takes to reach 5 stacks. Hence the reason for suggesting that the average time calc is added to the sim.

With the old method anything less than 5/5 meant you still had some cast time which meant massive dps loss as you listed. Now 5 stacks means instant cast even with 1/5 MW. The old version 5 stacks at 4/5 talents meant 80% cast time reduction thus dps lost whilst casting. This got worse so that 1/5 meant 20% cast time reduction and as you said a lot of lost dps.

Levva · 09/15/08, 9:21 AM

I take it that the sim assumes 2/2 Imp.Windfury Totem? As it seems to be a fairly must have talent, however what would be the effect of taking 1/2 Windfury Totem? Is it possible to add this to the sim? I STRONGLY suspect a dps loss but it would be nice to give numbers to prove it as someone on the Blizzard boards is bound to suggest a spec without it.

Wolflord · 09/15/08, 9:22 AM

Originally Posted by Levva

Ah but you are missing that those figures are from sim using OLD version of MW.

Nope thats the new version. Youll notice that even one point in MW provides a dps gain.

Levva · 09/15/08, 9:28 AM

Hmm extremely interesting and not what I'd have expected from a pure gut feeling. I take it that it derives from the time it takes to get stack of 5.

I've been testing it on beta and its nice and easy to get a stack of 5, soloing, its even quite possible to keep a stack going between mobs. ie: kill one then quickly pull the next and keep the stack going. Noticing you have the stack is the key but here is where I'd put in another plug for ShockAndAwe the updated version of DisqoDice that includes (or will include) support for MW, LvB & LL.

With ShockAndAwe its a piece of cake to see you have a stack of 5 MWs, as well ofc as seeing your SS & Shock cooldowns, your shield charges and your WF hidden CDs.

Pitbuller · 09/15/08, 9:29 AM

Originally Posted by tukez

0.9.2
-Maelstrom Weapon 5 point talent added. It has 20/40/60/80/100% chance to add a charge.

enhsim - Google Code

Originally Posted by Levva

Ah but you are missing that those figures are from sim using OLD version of MW. ie: you need 5 points in it or you don't get instant cast. Now with the proposed change even 1 pt in Maelstrom Weapon will alllow you to get 5 stacks of MW and instant cast. The difference is it will take longer if you spec less than 5/5 thus it becomes important to understand the average time and the spread of time it takes to reach 5 stacks. Hence the reason for suggesting that the average time calc is added to the sim.

With the old method anything less than 5/5 meant you still had some cast time which meant massive dps loss as you listed. Now 5 stacks means instant cast even with 1/5 MW. The old version 5 stacks at 4/5 talents meant 80% cast time reduction thus dps lost whilst casting. This got worse so that 1/5 meant 20% cast time reduction and as you said a lot of lost dps.

Guess what version of sim I was using?

I don't understand reason why people think that lava burst is something super good. It's auto crit but so what. Lighning bolt actual scale better. If you try fancy build with less than five point at maelstorm weapon you will get lot less lighning bolts. Lighning bolts are huge dps boost(+434dps vs only LvB). Reason why many people was asking maelstorm weapon talent change was that they underestimate lightning bolts and stated that LvB have 8s CD and you get avarage five stack lot faster than that. Then they think that you don't need all five points. But if you can use sim then you see that all serious dps build need 5/5 maelstorm to do competitive numbers.

tukez · 09/15/08, 9:32 AM

Originally Posted by Levva

Ah but you are missing that those figures are from sim using OLD version of MW.

I believe it is from the new version. The old version didn't even have MW as talent, just 5/5 or nothing. How could he get that data without lower ranks?

Btw, speed decrease is around 2% with the MW stats. I am seeing numbers like 0.8-8.4s with the 90% thingy and average 4.5s with 5/5 MW. Should this

(mwsAverage - 1.96*mwsSD) to (mwsAverage + 1.96*mwsSD)

be this

(mwsAverage - 0.96*mwsSD) to (mwsAverage + 0.96*mwsSD)

Then it gives

5/5, 2.4s-6.7s, 4.5s avg
4/5, 3.0s-8.6s, 5.8s avg
3/5, 4.1s-11.7s, 7.9s avg
2/5, 6.3s-17.9s, 12.1s avg
1/5, 12.9s-36.6s, 24.8s avg

These numbers seems more like I thought they would be. IMHO, I don't think this info is worth it.

Malan · 09/15/08, 9:58 AM

Originally Posted by tukez

I read on the WotLK thread, that WF proc chance should be 18% on one hand, not 20% as I have it modeled in the sim currently. Did I just understand that post wrong? I use the 36% chance with dual WF.

Its just a statistical thing. The actual observed proc rate will be 20% if you examined a combat log, but while Dual Wielding each eligible hit from both hands (ie, those hits made outside the WF cooldown) have a combined 36% chance of one of the two weapons producing a proc. Each hand still has a 20% chance to proc when viewed individually though.

tukez · 09/15/08, 11:03 AM

Originally Posted by Malan

Its just a statistical thing. The actual observed proc rate will be 20% if you examined a combat log, but while Dual Wielding each eligible hit from both hands (ie, those hits made outside the WF cooldown) have a combined 36% chance of one of the two weapons producing a proc. Each hand still has a 20% chance to proc when viewed individually though.

So is my sim working wrong now?

Let's make it simple. Outside wf cooldown:
Only 1 weapon has wf, proc chance on hit: xx%?
2 weapons have wf, proc chance on single hit: xx%?

In my sim it is 20% and 36%.

Malan · 09/15/08, 11:04 AM

Yah you're doing it wrong. Each hand still has a 20% chance to proc, its just that when you view the system as a whole the proc chance is 36% for any hand to proc. For your sim each hand should have a 20% chance to proc (but locks out the other hand obviously).

Like I said, its just a statistical thing. The 36% number is just saying "If you have windfury on both hands, you have a better chance of getting a proc", but you'll still only see an overall proc rate of 20% of your total eligible hits.

tukez · 09/15/08, 11:18 AM

Originally Posted by Malan

Yah you're doing it wrong. Each hand still has a 20% chance to proc, its just that when you view the system as a whole the proc chance is 36% for any hand to proc. For your sim each hand should have a 20% chance to proc (but locks out the other hand obviously).

Like I said, its just a statistical thing. The 36% number is just saying "If you have windfury on both hands, you have a better chance of getting a proc", but you'll still only see an overall proc rate of 20% of your total eligible hits.

What about this text from Think Tank? This one says that the proc rate is 36% or then the wording is really bad.

Windfury Proc Rate

When you are wielding a two handed weapon, or are using a shield, your chance to proc windfury on any landed attack outside the 3-second cooldown is 20%. When you dual wield weapons, the chance on each landed attack outside the 3-second cooldown is approximatedly 36%, if and only if both weapons are imbued with Windfury. [footnote]Originally posted by Disquette on the WoW official forums. Original post is no longer archived by Blizzard.[/footnote]

Analysis of the combat log shows that if you sum all hits, the proc rate while DWing is 20%, but that includes hits you make while inside the 3 second cooldown, which cannot actually proc WF. When you remove the ineligible hits the observed proc rate from the eligible hits becomes 36%.

Pitbuller · 09/15/08, 11:19 AM

Windfury Proc Rate

When you are wielding a two handed weapon, or are using a shield, your chance to proc windfury on any
landed attack outside the 3-second cooldown is 20%. When you dual wield weapons, the chance on each landed
attack outside the 3-second cooldown is approximatedly 36%, if and only if both weapons are imbued with
Windfury. [footnote]Originally posted by Disquette on the WoW official forums. 
Original post is no longer archived by Blizzard.[/footnote]

Analysis of the combat log shows that if you sum all hits, the proc rate while DWing is 20%, but that
includes hits you make while inside the 3 second cooldown, which cannot actually proc WF. When you remove
the ineligible hits the observed proc rate from the eligible hits becomes 36%.

How I understand think tank article so wrong? Thats states 36% not 20%.

Edit: Too slow.

Edit2: If observed proc rate is 20% and there is 3s cooldown then actual proc rate has to be higher.
From my last brutallus kill observed procrate was 14.11%.
510 attacks which can proc WF
368s combat time.
144wf attacks or 72proc.
1.38 swing per 1s.
Wf was cd 72*3s=216s.
Wf wasn't cd 368s-216s=152s.
72proc in 152s or 210swing.
72 / 210 = 0.343. Which is close to 36%. Math isn't perfect but show that it's not 20%

Malan · 09/15/08, 11:32 AM

The ThinkTank article says exactly what I just stated. When you dual wield there is a 36% chance of a proc from either hand when out of the cooldown. Each hand still has its own 20% proc rate though, and the overall observed rate of windfury procs is still 20% when you view a WWS report.

tukez · 09/15/08, 11:42 AM

Originally Posted by Malan

The ThinkTank article says exactly what I just stated. When you dual wield there is a 36% chance of a proc from either hand when out of the cooldown. Each hand still has its own 20% proc rate though, and the overall observed rate of windfury procs is still 20% when you view a WWS report.

No, it doesn't say that.

When you dual wield weapons, the chance on each landed attack outside the 3-second cooldown is approximatedly 36%, if and only if both weapons are imbued with Windfury.

I understand "each landed attack" as one attack with one weapon. I don't know how else can it be understood.

Sorry, I'm not gonna believe it unless Disquette confirms this. (or I see some parsed data from WWS)

Malan · 09/15/08, 11:47 AM

Originally Posted by tukez

Sorry, I'm not gonna believe it unless Disquette confirms this. (or I see some parsed data from WWS)

.....

Where the hell do you think I got that info from in the first place? Stick your head in the sand all you want I guess. Whatever.

Oogachaka · 09/15/08, 11:51 AM

Might want to add that that 36% chance to proc only comes into effect if both MH and OH weapons are hitting at the same time. (Usually meaning they both have the same speed.

Malan · 09/15/08, 11:54 AM

Uhh, no? That's not true at all.

Rhaegal · 09/15/08, 11:54 AM

You're not crazy--either the wording on the Think Tank is wrong and 90% of us reading it have been interpreting it as written for a very long time, or the sim is right as is. Unfortunately, as mentioned in the TTT, the original post isn't still hanging around for us to go reference, but every sentence in the TTT, and the original post in the epic-length Enhance thread, is worded such that each hit outside the WF CD has a 36% chance of proccing WF. It's not some "if you take each two sequential hits together, the chance that one of them will proc WF is 36%".

If that's not correct, and we've all been interpreting this test wrong for a year and some change, then the wording in the TTT needs changed.

Malan · 09/15/08, 12:00 PM

What is so hard to understand here? Its simple mathematics.

1 - (1 - 0.2) * (1 - 0.2) = 0.36

P(A and B) = P(A) * P(B)

Pitbuller · 09/15/08, 12:08 PM

I have check ten random brutallus wws parses now with this simple formula.
(WF procs) / [(battle time - WF cd time) * (avarage swing per second)]
All result have give > 0.3.