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Old 05/16/08, 11:43 AM   #2976
bambatsa
Glass Joe
 
Human Warlock
 
Arathor (EU)
hi guys i am new here and i do hate to add to the already long thread but i have a noobish question so here goes..
this is me The World of Warcraft Armory .
I was thinking on replacing sextant of unstable currents with darkmoon crusade...so i checked it on rawr and i see i gain dps but lose crit and therefore isb uptime. Not good with sheets so was wondering if you could tell me if my choice is correct. Or maybe propose diferent combo's.
thanx in advance!
 
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Old 05/16/08, 11:59 AM   #2977
Fireye
Spaceman Spiff
 
Fireye's Avatar
 
Undead Warlock
 
Cenarion Circle
SimulationCraft/Trinkets/Warlock - Shadowpriest.com Wiki

There's a wonderful repository of information regarding trinkets for warlocks. It's also in the second post in this thread.
 
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Old 05/16/08, 1:00 PM   #2978
Carnate
Glass Joe
 
Undead Warlock
 
Magtheridon
There is no need to replace Sextant with the Card. When you consider ISB time Sextant and Darkmoon have close to the same DPS. Plus Sextant is a little more friendly in fights where you have to move alot.

If you want a new trinket farm up Hex head from ZA.
 
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Old 05/16/08, 2:18 PM   #2979
Trickykid
King Hippo
 
Gnome Warlock
 
Turalyon
Originally Posted by Densor View Post
Also for any such instance where ISB is applied, there is a 0.21381376 chance that the debuff will not be refreshed before 4 shadowbolts eat the debuff. When this happens, the uptime of ISB can be calculated as the time that ISB was on the target without being refreshed divided by that time plus the average time it takes to reapply the ISB debuff.
Originally Posted by Roywyn View Post
That's correct, and I have no idea what you start calculating afterwards.
ISB is up if and only if at least one of the previous 4 casts was a crit. Which is ~79%, as you said.
As Roywyn mentioned, it appears you're double counting some of the uptime in your math. ISB uptime is the probability that ISB will be up at any given time. We find this by determining the chance it will NOT be up (in other words: the chance that the last 4 DD shadow spells did not put up ISB again). 1-P(no ISB) = P(ISB). P(no ISB) = (1-weighted_crit)^4.

By trying to figure out the time it takes to reapply ISB I think you added extra space to the realm of possibilities (ie, you found the % based out of 1, and then added in more probabilities).
 
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Old 05/16/08, 2:46 PM   #2980
Thebeefe
Glass Joe
 
Undead Warlock
 
Nordrassil (EU)
Originally Posted by Fireye View Post
SimulationCraft/Trinkets/Warlock - Shadowpriest.com Wiki

There's a wonderful repository of information regarding trinkets for warlocks. It's also in the second post in this thread.
Anyone vouch for the reliability of this? Don't want to get into a mess like I did with MaxDPS.com a long time ago!

EDIT: It also appears to be out of date, lack of Timbal's.
 
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Old 05/16/08, 2:59 PM   #2981
Jakiri
Glass Joe
 
Draenei Shaman
 
Eonar (EU)
Originally Posted by Thebeefe View Post
Anyone vouch for the reliability of this? Don't want to get into a mess like I did with MaxDPS.com a long time ago!
I, personally, would ignore it; it doesn't take into account the rest of your gear, and given that facilities exist to rank them without such limitations I don't really see the point.

[edit]

As it lacks Timbal's it also will lack the haste changes (for example), and the standard DPS will be lower than can be assumed for Sunwell-geared people.
 
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Old 05/16/08, 3:09 PM   #2982
Alephnull
Glass Joe
 
Human Warlock
 
Hellscream (EU)
but I'm assuming its not accounting for socket bonuses?
No, i actually try every gem combination possible for every item with sockets, from a selection of the 5 best gems. That is 12 sd, 10 haste, 12 crit, 10 hit and 6sd 7 stam. I need to add the 5 haste 7 stam gem, but the problem is the number of possible item combinations rises STEEPLY with more gems. Currently a 3 socket item with 5 possible gems has 35 combinations. In total, there are around 10^20 gear combinations limiting it to 'good' gear and 'good' gems. Its not brute-force-able to crack...

Ive made some changes, fixed that mistake i made with haste, and changed the crafted gear available. Ill post a new list soon.
 
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Old 05/16/08, 3:13 PM   #2983
Torq
Piston Honda
 
Gnome Warlock
 
Burning Legion
Originally Posted by Alephnull View Post
No, i actually try every gem combination possible for every item with sockets, from a selection of the 5 best gems. That is 12 sd, 10 haste, 12 crit, 10 hit and 6sd 7 stam. I need to add the 5 haste 7 stam gem, but the problem is the number of possible item combinations rises STEEPLY with more gems. Currently a 3 socket item with 5 possible gems has 35 combinations. In total, there are around 10^20 gear combinations limiting it to 'good' gear and 'good' gems. Its not brute-force-able to crack...

Ive made some changes, fixed that mistake i made with haste, and changed the crafted gear available. Ill post a new list soon.

6sd/5haste should be in the top 5 gems, imo. That's a big gem to leave out...
 
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Old 05/16/08, 3:22 PM   #2984
Ammanas
Piston Honda
 
Tauren Shaman
 
Frostmane
From everything I have done with the spreadsheet, the way to go with gems in a SW gear set is to do 12 damage in reds and 5 haste/6 damage in yellows. Technically if you reach a point where haste is at or above a 1.2:1 ratio with damage you would start using 5/6 gems in red sockets as well, but I've yet to reach that point in my own playing around with the spreadsheet. Almost all of the socket bonuses are +3/4/5 damage and are worth getting. This is of course assuming you are hit capped and have the 2 required blues for the meta gem.

As far as how to gem for hit, it really makes 0 difference to use 10 hit or 5 hit/6 damage gems from what I've seen. If you use two 5/6's you get 10 hit and 12 damage, same as if you used a 10 hit/12 damage gem. It might be good to get the heroic [Vivid Chrysoprase] to fufill your meta requirements if you need hit gems, but its probably not worth the effort of running heroics for it.

Last edited by Ammanas : 05/16/08 at 3:28 PM.
 
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Old 05/16/08, 3:30 PM   #2985
Torq
Piston Honda
 
Gnome Warlock
 
Burning Legion
Originally Posted by Ammanas View Post
From everything I have done with the spreadsheet, the way to go with gems in a full-optimal SW gear set is to do 12 damage in reds and 5 haste/6 damage in yellows. Almost all of the socket bonuses are +3/4/5 damage and are worth getting. This is of course assuming you are hit capped and have the 2 required blues for the meta gem.

As far as how to gem for hit, it really makes 0 difference to use 10 hit or 5 hit/6 damage gems from what I've seen. If you use two 5/6's you get 10 hit and 12 damage, same as if you used a 10 hit/12 damage gem.
This is of course assuming all red sockets. If you take +12sd for red sockets, and 5haste/6sd for the yellows, netting a socket bonus of +2-5 damage, I'm sure that's superior to putting all +12sds in and ignoring the socket bonus (since you'll probably end up with -0-4sd and +5 haste). Just observing the large number of yellow sockets still on SW gear (there are lots of reds, too), I'm pretty sure +5h/+6sd is still one of the top 5 gems.
 
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Old 05/16/08, 8:34 PM   #2986
 KingSpeedy
Yikes
 
Gnome Warlock
 
Shattered Hand
So, I've been getting ready to start banging my head against Brutallus this Sunday, and I was toying around with Quag's eye since its been getting so much discussion lately. I had it proc a few times while I was farming, and noticed that even though the 320 Haste Rating buff it gives is supposedly 20.29% (using the 15.77 modifier), I was still casting Shadow Bolt at more than 2 seconds. I started trading out different amounts of haste, charted up the numbers, and came up with this formula which I've tested under numerous conditions and found to be 100% accurate:




Now, if I'm interpreting this correctly, it seems like the higher HR you have, the less effective it becomes. That is, the first 100 haste rating will not decrease your cast time as much as the second 100 haste rating. But because the coefficient doesn't stay constant at the reported 15.77, and actually grows with your haste rating, could this be interpreted as a diminishing return? Maybe I'm just completely misunderstanding the way haste is meant to be calculated, but this seems a bit off from the way I would expect it to work.
 
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Old 05/16/08, 8:45 PM   #2987
Densor
Piston Honda
 
Draenei Shaman
 
Argent Dawn
Post Removed

Last edited by Densor : 05/17/08 at 12:59 AM.
 
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Old 05/16/08, 9:14 PM   #2988
Trickykid
King Hippo
 
Gnome Warlock
 
Turalyon
Originally Posted by Densor View Post
Yes, the chance for any DD spell to hit while ISB is up is equal to the 1-(1-crit)^4. However, that doesn't work for figuring out ISB uptime for DoT spells.
No that is not the chance for any DD spell to hit with ISB, that's the chance for ISB to be up at any point in time. DoT spells do not affect ISB uptime.

You're making this far too complicated. Again: the probability ISB is up is 1 minus the probability it is NOT up. The probability it is not up is equal to the chance that the previous 4 DD spells did not put up ISB (non-critting SBs or other non-periodic shadow damage). To repeat, that is (1-weighted_crit)^4.
 
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Old 05/16/08, 11:11 PM   #2989
rutiene
Piston Honda
 
Blood Elf Warlock
 
Deathwing
Originally Posted by KingSpeedy View Post
So, I've been getting ready to start banging my head against Brutallus this Sunday, and I was toying around with Quag's eye since its been getting so much discussion lately. I had it proc a few times while I was farming, and noticed that even though the 320 Haste Rating buff it gives is supposedly 20.29% (using the 15.77 modifier), I was still casting Shadow Bolt at more than 2 seconds. I started trading out different amounts of haste, charted up the numbers, and came up with this formula which I've tested under numerous conditions and found to be 100% accurate:




Now, if I'm interpreting this correctly, it seems like the higher HR you have, the less effective it becomes. That is, the first 100 haste rating will not decrease your cast time as much as the second 100 haste rating. But because the coefficient doesn't stay constant at the reported 15.77, and actually grows with your haste rating, could this be interpreted as a diminishing return? Maybe I'm just completely misunderstanding the way haste is meant to be calculated, but this seems a bit off from the way I would expect it to work.
Assuming your equation is right. The proportion of cast time reduced is:

HR/(0.1577 + HR * 0.0001)

Which turns out to be a positive linear equation, meaning no. No diminishing returns.
 
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Old 05/16/08, 11:34 PM   #2990
Arelenda
Don Flamenco
 
Human Warlock
 
Argent Dawn (EU)
Originally Posted by KingSpeedy View Post
So, I've been getting ready to start banging my head against Brutallus this Sunday, and I was toying around with Quag's eye since its been getting so much discussion lately. I had it proc a few times while I was farming, and noticed that even though the 320 Haste Rating buff it gives is supposedly 20.29% (using the 15.77 modifier), I was still casting Shadow Bolt at more than 2 seconds. I started trading out different amounts of haste, charted up the numbers, and came up with this formula which I've tested under numerous conditions and found to be 100% accurate:




Now, if I'm interpreting this correctly, it seems like the higher HR you have, the less effective it becomes. That is, the first 100 haste rating will not decrease your cast time as much as the second 100 haste rating. But because the coefficient doesn't stay constant at the reported 15.77, and actually grows with your haste rating, could this be interpreted as a diminishing return? Maybe I'm just completely misunderstanding the way haste is meant to be calculated, but this seems a bit off from the way I would expect it to work.
Many people seem to misunderstand this. The easy formula: hasted_cast_time = original_cast_time / (1 + Haste_rating / 1577)

Haste has diminishing returns on your cast time reduction, that is true. But you seem to be missing that decreasing your cast time by a fixed value has increasing returns in regards to dps. They cancel each other out.

Allow me to illustrate with a short example how haste affects dps:


Assume average Shadow Bolts of 5000 and no haste. Your dps with Shadow Bolt = 5000 / 2.5s = 2000.

Here's how your dps will go up when you gain haste rating:



As you can see, while your cast time suffers from diminishing returns, the result on your dps is 100% linear. Each 100 haste adds 126,82dps.
 
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Old 05/17/08, 1:09 AM   #2991
PSGarak
Bald Bull
 
PSGarak's Avatar
 
Undead Warlock
 
Hyjal
Originally Posted by Densor View Post
The percent uptime of a debuff is the time the debuff is up divided by the total time segment you are examining. The percent uptime of a debuff is not the chance that the debuff is up at any given point in time, especially not when the time it is up can vary, and especially if it can refresh itself.
Those two types of uptime are the exact same thing. For a time interval that has the buff up some of the time, the probability that a random point sees the buff up is, *by definition*, the normalized measure of time in that interval for which the buff is active (note also that if there were a difference, you would be looking at the wrong one for measuring DoTs). The effects that you mention have no effect on this identity whatsoever in the general case, and for ISB the first effectively doesn't exist (ISB lasts four charges), and the second is accounted for in the 1-(1-c)^4 model.

For any randomly sampled point in time, or for any incoming shadow damage (which occurs at a randomly sampled point in time), there are two possibilities: one of the last four shadow nukes was a crit shadowbolt, or none of them were. These terms sum to one so you only need to find one to find both; we find the second because it's easier. You decided to find the first, which you did by breaking it down casewise (easier to use Principal of Inclusion and Exclusion), but then you added another term which changed what it was you were looking at exactly.

Where you went wrong in your analysis is that you assume the first shadowbolt is a crit. The average ISB uptime on intervals measured from crit to crit is much higher than the ISB uptime in a general chain of incoming nukes because the time-normalization happens before the intervals are added, rather than after. Shorter intervals have higher ISB uptime (always, not on average) but are weighted only by probability, not by interval length.
This is similar to the Poisson paradox: given line divided into a series of intervals whose lengths are Poisson-random variables (or any memoryless distribution) with mean length \lambda, a random point on the line is expected to fall on an interval of length 2\lambda. This is caused by the memorylessness of the Poisson distribution: every point is expect to be \lambda distance from either endpoint. The resolution of the paradox is that you are more likely to fall on larger intervals, simply by the fact that they are larger. Hardcore calculations ensue, showing the number 2 to be exact. (I am told this question often appears on PhD-qualifying exams, so don't feel bad for not getting it)

 
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Old 05/17/08, 9:45 PM   #2992
noxium
Glass Joe
 
Human Warrior
 
Tichondrius
Bloodlusts

My guild currently stacks the mages, regardless of gear levels over the warlocks in my guild. I have read these threads and some people seem to indicate that a shaman is better for a mage during bloodlust because of the icy veins, etc. cooldowns. I don't know if I agree with this, and has anyone factored in that for Horde side warlocks have the orc racial to stack with bloodlust also? Mages cannot get this racial and any raiding warlock at least "should" be an orc. If there is a benefit for mages from bloodlust does this negate it enough given equal gear levels?
However, I was thinking having the shaman in general helps increase ISB uptime as well as allowing the warlock to drop a hit item in favor of more damage/crit/whatever if they have one available. A mage does not need as much hit as a warlock and thus would have a more difficult time doing this.

I am often in a healer group as a left over, and in >most< situations i can still do fine. I've read most of this thread and I've looked through a lot of theory webpages on this topic and i still haven't made a strong enough case beyond the points i mentioned. what are your opinions taken into consideration ISB for moonkin or shaman in group and maybe orc racial during bloodlust? my ideal solution is to give the mages a shadowpriest to avoid evocation, and give a moonkin/elem shaman to a warlock. the shadow priest would do more damage from ISB and give more mana to the mage.
 
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Old 05/17/08, 10:57 PM   #2993
Touf
Don Flamenco
 
Tauren Warrior
 
Ner'zhul
Originally Posted by noxium View Post
My guild currently stacks the mages, regardless of gear levels over the warlocks in my guild. I have read these threads and some people seem to indicate that a shaman is better for a mage during bloodlust because of the icy veins, etc. cooldowns. I don't know if I agree with this, and has anyone factored in that for Horde side warlocks have the orc racial to stack with bloodlust also? Mages cannot get this racial and any raiding warlock at least "should" be an orc. If there is a benefit for mages from bloodlust does this negate it enough given equal gear levels?
However, I was thinking having the shaman in general helps increase ISB uptime as well as allowing the warlock to drop a hit item in favor of more damage/crit/whatever if they have one available. A mage does not need as much hit as a warlock and thus would have a more difficult time doing this.

I am often in a healer group as a left over, and in >most< situations i can still do fine. I've read most of this thread and I've looked through a lot of theory webpages on this topic and i still haven't made a strong enough case beyond the points i mentioned. what are your opinions taken into consideration ISB for moonkin or shaman in group and maybe orc racial during bloodlust? my ideal solution is to give the mages a shadowpriest to avoid evocation, and give a moonkin/elem shaman to a warlock. the shadow priest would do more damage from ISB and give more mana to the mage.
The 1st BL should go to your mages, the 2nd to your melee. They have <20% abilties that greatly favor them. After that you might as well spread them out, for raid morale if nothing else.

The problem with the SP is that the moonkin/elem shaman are fairly dependent on them, much more so than a warlock.
 
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Old 05/17/08, 11:00 PM   #2994
Rapier
Glass Joe
 
Gnome Warlock
 
Outland (EU)
Originally Posted by noxium View Post
My guild currently stacks the mages, regardless of gear levels over the warlocks in my guild. I have read these threads and some people seem to indicate that a shaman is better for a mage during bloodlust because of the icy veins, etc. cooldowns. I don't know if I agree with this, and has anyone factored in that for Horde side warlocks have the orc racial to stack with bloodlust also? Mages cannot get this racial and any raiding warlock at least "should" be an orc. If there is a benefit for mages from bloodlust does this negate it enough given equal gear levels?
However, I was thinking having the shaman in general helps increase ISB uptime as well as allowing the warlock to drop a hit item in favor of more damage/crit/whatever if they have one available. A mage does not need as much hit as a warlock and thus would have a more difficult time doing this.

I am often in a healer group as a left over, and in >most< situations i can still do fine. I've read most of this thread and I've looked through a lot of theory webpages on this topic and i still haven't made a strong enough case beyond the points i mentioned. what are your opinions taken into consideration ISB for moonkin or shaman in group and maybe orc racial during bloodlust? my ideal solution is to give the mages a shadowpriest to avoid evocation, and give a moonkin/elem shaman to a warlock. the shadow priest would do more damage from ISB and give more mana to the mage.
A warlock will never beat a mage sub 20% regardless of being orc or not, a fire mage specifically saves all their cooldowns for sub 20% for molten fury bar the second trinket due to the skull of guldan shared cooldown nerf but still no less than 5 cooldowns that i can think of (icy veins, combustion, flame cap, destruction pot, skull of gul'dan). Bloodlust/heroism multiplies the effect of skull of gul'dan and icy veins - also drums if you're group is rocking leatherworkers.

We'll be using bloodlust/heroism with 1 trinket unless you're incredibly lucky to get heroism with full mana and a pot cooldown up for a destruction potion which rarely happens as I assume everyone should be chain chugging super mana pots.

In an ideal scenario, 100% - 20% shaman with the warlocks and swapped into the mage group for sub 20%.

In alot of fights I've found the moonkin has to be in a shadowpriest group to do acceptable dps but my experiences with them are limited.
 
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Old 05/18/08, 12:59 AM   #2995
PSGarak
Bald Bull
 
PSGarak's Avatar
 
Undead Warlock
 
Hyjal
As far as being Horde and having the Orc racial, mages can have access to the Troll berserking racial. There have been many changes back and forth on what that effect does and doesn't stack with, but if it is an additional effect for mages it will probably be on the same order as blood frenzy for warlocks.

 
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Old 05/18/08, 11:27 AM   #2996
Honga
Glass Joe
 
Night Elf Warlock
 
Frostmourne
Sorry to create a new topic out of the blue, but I need assistance. Currently I am at ~1650 spell dam buffed and I was seeking to increase that. But as I was entering my values into the spreadsheet I was told that crit has a much higher gain in terms of dps than damage, whereas the information presented on page 1 of this topic goes against this. If anyone would help me with this it would be much appreciated

My spec is 6/44/11.

Thanks,
Hongaa.
 
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Old 05/18/08, 12:06 PM   #2997
Flamingcloud
Great Tiger
 
Night Elf Death Knight
 
Tortheldrin
Originally Posted by Honga View Post
Sorry to create a new topic out of the blue, but I need assistance. Currently I am at ~1650 spell dam buffed and I was seeking to increase that. But as I was entering my values into the spreadsheet I was told that crit has a much higher gain in terms of dps than damage, whereas the information presented on page 1 of this topic goes against this. If anyone would help me with this it would be much appreciated

My spec is 6/44/11.

Thanks,
Hongaa.


I wouldn't really trust the affliction or demonology sections to be up to date. Almost all locks are destruction by your gear level. Regardless, spell damage should be better still for you, the only thing I can think of is you have raid TNS set to 1, so that crit is getting the value it increases all the shadow users in your improved shadowbolt tab.

Originally Posted by noxium View Post
My guild currently stacks the mages, regardless of gear levels over the warlocks in my guild. I have read these threads and some people seem to indicate that a shaman is better for a mage during bloodlust because of the icy veins, etc. cooldowns. I don't know if I agree with this, and has anyone factored in that for Horde side warlocks have the orc racial to stack with bloodlust also? Mages cannot get this racial and any raiding warlock at least "should" be an orc. If there is a benefit for mages from bloodlust does this negate it enough given equal gear levels?
However, I was thinking having the shaman in general helps increase ISB uptime as well as allowing the warlock to drop a hit item in favor of more damage/crit/whatever if they have one available. A mage does not need as much hit as a warlock and thus would have a more difficult time doing this.

I am often in a healer group as a left over, and in >most< situations i can still do fine. I've read most of this thread and I've looked through a lot of theory webpages on this topic and i still haven't made a strong enough case beyond the points i mentioned. what are your opinions taken into consideration ISB for moonkin or shaman in group and maybe orc racial during bloodlust? my ideal solution is to give the mages a shadowpriest to avoid evocation, and give a moonkin/elem shaman to a warlock. the shadow priest would do more damage from ISB and give more mana to the mage.
I think the general concensus is first heroism(<20%) mage, and all the rest of the ranged dps heroisms go to the warlocks. I assume most raiding guilds take 4-6 shamans a raid at this point, so neither mages or locks should be in a horrible healer group, barring odd numbers. I would also agree that moonkin/ele shaman are generally better suited with warlocks, due to higher base dps and improved shadowbolt uptime. As you mentioned spriests go with mages if it means they avoid evocating, however if a mage can get by with mage armor/mana pot/mana gem it would be better to put the spriest with the warlocks(because cooldowns and 3% crit are less than the dps gained by lifetapping less).

Of course if your mages are higher base dps than your warlocks that changes everything.

Last edited by Flamingcloud : 05/18/08 at 12:13 PM.
 
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Old 05/18/08, 12:48 PM   #2998
Nas
Von Kaiser
 
Gnome Warlock
 
Nagrand
Originally Posted by s[orc]ery View Post
Has anyone else found quartz latency bar to be completely off? Many times i am able to start a new cast much earlier than quartz suggests.

Is there a mod which works similar to quartz' global cooldown bar but customizable? I merely want a timer that operates in real time each time i press my shadowbolt key
Quartz has been more or less accurate for me till after 2.4.2 - since then I could literaly cast the next Shadow Bolt 0.5 of a second earlier than the latency region. At the moment I'm just guessing when the best time for a SB cast would be, the latency reading off Quartz does nothing for me.
 
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Old 05/18/08, 1:16 PM   #2999
Kortar
Banned
 
Dwarf Priest
 
Skywall
Spell hit (until capped with suppression) > Spell damage > Spell haste & Crit
I was recently looking into Affliction Warlocks and I started with this assumption as well - but it didn't seem to be actually true.

Let's look at the pertinant spells:
Unstable Affliction: 1050 + 120% for 18s/1.5s cast. +5% (Contagion), +10% (Shadow Mastery).
Corruption: 900 + 129.6% for 18s/1.5s cast. +5% (Contagion), +10% (Shadow Mastery)
Siphon Life: 630 + 100% for 30s/1.5s cast. +10% (Shadow Mastery)
Curse of Agony: 1356 + 120% for 24s/1.5s cast. +10% (Shadow Mastery), +5 (Contagion), +10% (Improved Curse of Agony), +6.6% (Amplify Curse).
Shadow Bolt: 572 + 85.71% for 2.5s/2.5s cast. +10% (Shadow Mastery). For 15% critical, receives +7.5% (critical bonuses), +9.56% (Improved Shadow Bolt).

With +1400 damage, this gives each spell an damage/casting time:
UA = 2102
Corruption = 2090
Siphon Life = 1489
Curse of Agony = 2741
Shadow Bolt = 918

Presuming we run all 4 DoT on a target, we'll consume approximately 30% of our time refreshing DoT. This leads to a dps contribution of:
UA: 175 dps
Corruption: 174 dps
Siphon Life: 74 dps
Curse of Agony: 171 dps
Shadowbolt: 643 dps

So our DoT are about 48% of our dps (this figure remains surprisingly invariant across different levels of +damage) in a theoretical sense (actual raid issues will cause the damage to vary substantially). Our total dps is 1238.
Now, let's presume that we have 0% spell hit (no Suppression, no spell hit from gear/buffs).

With Shadow Bolt, it's easy to see that this constitutes a 16% reduction in damage. Every time a Shadow Bolt is resisted, it's entire dps is lost.

However, with DoT spells, this is not the case. If a DoT is resisted, we simply recast it.

Consider a 30 minute fight where we're only using Corruption. We can get off 100 cast of Corruption. With a 1% resist rate, we'll lose a total of 1.5s worth of damage in that entire time - with the figures above that's 261 damage, or an almost trivial 0.145 dps over the course of the fight. With a 17% resist rate, we'll lose 25.5s worth of damage - a total of 4441 damage, or an only slightly less trivial 2.467 dps over the course of the fight. So +16% spell hit translates into an overall increase of about +1.4% dps in our simplistic example.

It should be obvious from this simplistic example that DoT perform very differently under the influence of spell hit than direct nukes. So the question is: how much differently?

Using all 4 DoT, with Shadow Bolts in between, what happens when we hit a spell resist?

We'll be casting UA first. 17% of the time, this will be resisted. If it is resisted, we'll be losing 1.5s of dps off of both UA and Corruption (since they are synchronized). We'll also be losing 1.5s worth of Shadow Bolt dps (since Shadow Bolts take up our dead time). We'll be losing the equivalent of 0.9s of Siphon Life and 1.125s of Curse of Agony (due to mismatched durations).

This total loss of dps adds up to around 100 dps - hardly insignificant, but only 8% of our total dps. In other words, our investment of 16% in Spell Hit yeilds only 8% added dps. If we have 5/5 Suppression and cap spell hit for Affliction spells only, our loss from Shadow Bolts only constitutes a mere 0.8% of overall dps. 6% Spell Hit is equivalent to about +85 spell damage.

+85 spell damage would generate about 49 additional dps - or almost five times the impact of a comparable amount of spell hit. (Note: for 0/5 Suppression, 0 spell hit, +damage is about 130% of the value of +spell hit using all the figures above).

I've probably rushed through this analysis a little quickly, but it seems on initial blush that the advice "spell hit > spell damage" for Affliction Warlocks isn't quite right.
 
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Old 05/18/08, 2:19 PM   #3000
PSGarak
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Leulier's spreadsheet actually accounts for spell misses on DoTs relatively well. The spell is modeled as doing the same amount of damage with a higher cast time, as opposed to nukes which are modeled as doing less damage with the same cast time. And, of course, the higher cast time takes away from shadowbolts. I'm not sure if it affects the DoT-gap, and I'm pretty sure it doesn't model staggered-DoT gap as a result of making other DoTs late to refresh.

In general, we've found that spell hit is still better than spell damage until you hit the supression cap, and then damage very slightly beats out hit for the remaining 10%. Looking over your analysis, I think the thing that's wrong is that you're only looking at the effect of missing a UA on the rest of the cycle. "our loss from Shadow Bolts only constitutes a mere 0.8% of overall dps" is clearly wrong--a 6% DPS loss on ~50% of our damage is a 3% DPS drop, about four times higher than you treat it as.

 
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