Your math is wrong, shadow embrace only applies to shadow damage but not to fire damage.

Hmm seems like german and english tooltip are not the same here -_-

It might be possible to get a napkin estimate like this:

With Nightfall talent OR Nightfall glyph:

Each corruption tick gives a 4% chance at an instant sb. An instant sb is worth 2.5-1.5 = 1 sec of extra filler. So corruption awards 4% * 1 secs of extra filler every 3 sec tick. Extra filler time every sec is like haste. 0.04 secs / 3 secs = 1.33% haste.

I guess for 30/0/41 builds this is close to 1.33% dps, but for affliction, this is only an extra 1.33% * 0.5 = 0.67% dps or so, roughly speaking. The "0.5" relies on assumptions in 1% haste gives 0.5% affliction dps.

If the above is correct then it makes Nightfall one of the crummier affliction talents, at +0.33% dps/talent point.

Modelling the 3.84% extra nightfall chance as a 96% improvement to the talent is a highball of the effectiveness. The proc rate is exactly that, a 96% improvement, but unfortunately it raises the likelyhood of wasted procs. If you take enough time refreshing DoTs that nightfall procs again, it's a wasted proc, and the higher proc chance the more of the procs are wasted.

The thing about DPCT is a little screwy in this situation. Even if a nightfalled (nightfell? nightfallen?) shadowbolt has a higher DPCT than a DoT, I think that in general it's still higher DPS to sit on the proc and refresh the DoT. This is because the nightfall proc is a one-time event rather than a spammable spell, and the damage increase it gives doesn't depend (much) on when it's spent, while the DoT does. Basically the fact that you can sit on a nightfall proc means you should.

The tension is, these two intuitions contradict each other. Sitting on nightfall procs gives a chance to randomly waste them, and a single wasted nightfall proc is worth more than 1.5s of DoT time (2/5 of a shadowbolt vs 1/10 to 1/20 of a DoT). But, of course, you don't actually know if the nightfall proc will be wasted or not. You can only talk averages, and on average there's only a ~8% chance it will be lost (I'm assuming that your refreshes will only give corruption one time to tick before you would use nightfall anyways). That tends to lose in expectation value (~1/30 of a shadowbolt vs 1/10 to 1/20 of a DOT). So, while it is possible to double-proc and lose a proc when refreshing multiple DoTs, it's such a rare occurence that it's still advantageous to save nightfall procs than use them.

This isn't entirely true, from my understanding, they stack so you just have a flat rate of ~8% rather than the regular 4% if this is true then there is no down side (other than maybe having a just plain better glyph) to having the Corr. Instant SB is very nice for Aff spec since you don't want it to take time out of your rotation of keeping your DoTs up.

This is all that I have heard on my server, is that Corr glyph is a must with Aff spec, because it does double the chance from 4% to ~8%. I may be completely wrong, but having a ~8% rather than 4% chance doesn't seem too unreasonable and so it seems realistic for them to just stack.

What evidence to you have that they stack to 8%? You're effectively saying "it's definitely 8% and NOT 7.84%", so presumably you have thousands of ticks of Corruption to back it up.

Hi, long time reader, first time poster here...

Being Affliction-specced myself, i am using Agony, Corruption and Shadowbolt as Glyphs...

now reading this, I find myself wondering about the effectiveness of the Shadowbolt Glyph... anybody have an idea of how to calculate it's effectiveness in comparison to the alternatives?

Has anybody done the math if immolate glyph is the right for destro warlocks who are always clipping the last tick of immolate?

I just tested the CoA glyph and in the last 4 seconds it ticks 4 times at the escalated damage.

Wait, so it ticks 4 times in 4 seconds with the highest damage? Instead of ticking twice in the middle with medium damage?

It doesn't have to be a completely stationary fight. If the player is casting even one lifetap while standing still, the glyph could save him from doing that.

That said, the glyph does seem terrible.