BTW, I redid my previous tests on normal boss dummy (lvl 80), instead of lvl 83 one that I used previously, because miss chances are unrealistic (since in raid setup we have hit buffs). Also I simplified test without using "decimate" part , because that is one which on simulator is always done more perfectly than on dummy.
Results ended up much closer this time (this is still for 0/41/30 @ 1928dmg, 306hit, 448crit, 327haste, 660spi, eff:Sundial+DCurse+T7_4pc):
Real 0/41/30 test on dummy(lvl80) without decimate
Simulated same situation, on WMO
I noticed some things that are still slightly different tho:
1) average incinerate damage is still higher on seimulator
2) pet did not have any miss on simulator, and had ~3.5% misses on test
Second one is not so noticeable, because pet also had slightly higher average damage per hit on real test compared to sim, and when misses are included it ended up almost same.
First one is probably due to Molten Core uptime, which is much higher on simulator (60% vs 20% on test), even if number of shadow dot ticks is almost same (126 on sim, 120 on test). When I did 50k iteration test on sim, MC uptime was still 65%, so maybe I was just unlucky on test dummy - which looks possible since fast math also says MC uptime at 2/3 MC should be higher.
Edit 1: I retested on lvl 83 dummy, with Decimation, but used more +hit gear (for 0/41/30 @ 1902dmg, 426hit, 354crit, 263haste, 667spi, eff:Sundial+DCurse+T7_2pc). Results are now much closer:
Test on lvl 83 dummy ~ 3250 dps
Simulation of same case, ~3450 dps
while simulator still have slightly higher average damages per spell, it can be explained by higher LT_glyph uptime (I didnt LT during decimate). But more impoertant here is that main thing I changed from previous tests is "hit" - and in real tests it seems that negative impact from not enough hit is higher than on simulator - which can be expected, since unlike me, simulator can immediatelly notice if it missed ;p
Edit 2: Did also affliction build test, on lvl 83 dummy (for 53/1/17, same gear as above in Edit1):
Test on lvl 83 dummy ~ 4100dps
Simulation for same case, ~3900dps
Here I had opposite situation than at demo - real test showed higher numbers than simulation. BUT due to crowded dummies, several people were testing during my test, so it is possible that some additional debuff was on dummy. Even if i couldnt find such debuff in log, it could have been put before log started. As it is now, average spell damage for spells like SB or Corruption is 16% higher on test. Some 8% can be explained by Eradictions 12% being present 65% longer, but will need test without anyone else on dummy to be sure for reason of remaining 8%.
On the other side, crit rate for SB on simulation (~30%) is significantly higher than on test (14%), and that can not be explained by debuffs on dummy. When run 50k iterations, crit on SB was 25%. One reason could be much higher uptime for Demonic Soul on sim, but would have explained only 2-3% of difference - maybe was just unlucky on SB crits during test.
BTW, seems that some WMO links from above expired - maybe because I was posting them as private logs, or maybe those links to players are not persistent. I refreshed last link, this time with link to fight not to player. Will refresh others when next time I do tests.