Estimating final Threat Values for hits including crit potential.
This is an update to a post I made some weeks ago, updated following work done by Satrina (Tankspot) and build 9014 information.
Figures for a L80 using and arbitary 2,500 AP and 1,500 Block Value and a base 15% Crit chance.
Weapon is the Red Sword of Courage (L80 Epic Tank weapon).
I factored in the following:
Defensive Stance now 207.35% Threat
The new versions of all the spells with the AP contributions which have been calculated.
Satrina's latest work on the base threat values (Tankspot.com) and the latest build info.
Devastate now does NOT add Sunder Threat at any time, it's damage (50% Weapon + 101 per Sunder) + 5% AP threat.
Defensive Stance with 5/5 1H Weapon Spec for 10% damage and another 10% Damage from Enrage.
Target Armour - rather than estimating absolute values I've used the same DR values at 80 as at 70 i.e. we assume bosses start out with about 39% DR and debuffs reduce this to about 27%
All attacks are after all such debuffs are applied (other than the Devastate 1-4 lines themselves) so use a DR of 27%
Glance is 20% chance for 70% damage (only for the Autoattack entry)
Hit and Expertise capped so all attacks will land (and thus full Crit chance is available for specials).
Improved Thunderclap increases total damage by 30%
Thunderclap and Shockwave Crit Spells (150% damage)
Thunderclap base threat is 185% of it's damage, Heroic Throw 150% damage, everything else listed is 100% damage + whatever modifiers.
Improved Revenge taken and Build 9014 values used, Satrina has shown the new innate threat is 121.
Gag Order taken (+10% SS damage)
Incite, Sword & Board and Critical Block taken (+15% Crit chance to various attack)
Base 15% Crit chance and all the +15% Crit talents taken meaning for attacks that could crit an appropriate modifier was made to their damage e.g. Devastate would have a 30% chance to Crit for 100% extra damage for a net potential 30% damage increase (lower for TC and Shockwave)
What I don't yet know for sure or did not include:
Did not include Shield Block's boost to Block Value for Shield Slams
Did not include Glyphs (even the Blocking Glyph which is another near permanent 10% BV).
Thunderclap damage has apparently increased again but I have no info on this.
With today's increase to SS damage I wonder if the threat modifier as come down a bit but this is unknown so leaving it at the value Satrina calculated.
Here's the final threat values I get for a hit
with crit potential as a damage modifier, these numbers look massive but I can find no flaw in my spreadsheet so far:
Devastate 1 1075
Devastate 2 1295
Devastate 3 1529
Devastate 4 1777
Devastate 5+ 2041
Sunder Armour 975
Revenge 4722
Shield Slam 7506
Conc. Blow 3543
Shockwave 3312
Autoattack 923
Heroic Strike 2695
Thunderclap 2727
Heroic Throw 4044
Damage Shield 739
Some thoughts:
The classic Shield Slam > Revenge > Devastate order is retained of course but you will usually proc at least 1 extra SS during that SS for truly incredible TPS.
Heroic Strike threat is close to Devastate + Autoattack threat, only a small gap remains.
For most talent builds Devastate will still cost less rage and will have a chance to proc S&B so will remain ahead by more than these numbers show.
Both Concussion Blow and Shockwave exceed Devastate Threat.
Devastate Threat is now relatively too low or Thunderclap's is too high.
Shield Slam threat now looks quite insane - even before Glyphs, Meta Gems and Shield Block are added in.
EDIT: Thunderclap threat confirmed as now 185% of the damage, up form 175%; Heroic Throw included.
EDIT2: Damage Shield included; Revenge innate threat added.