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Old 01/06/09, 6:24 PM   #476
malor
Glass Joe
 
Undead Warrior
 
Maelstrom
Whirlwind eats one recklessness charge per target it hits. So if you hit one target (regardless of 2H or DW 2H) it takes one charge. A side note: when AEing, you want your whirlwind to use the last charge of recklessness, as it will crit on all the targets you hit but only take up that last charge.

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Old 01/06/09, 6:34 PM   #477
 Darkmyst
Terrible Terry Tate, Forum Linebacker.
 
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Elyree
Troll Warrior
 
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Another angle:

Assuming

10 mintue fight
2.75 swing speed
50% crit rate.

We have 465 chances to proc Bloodsurge. 46.5 procs.

46.5x5400 = 251,100 potential slam damage.

Splitting the delay evenly between BT and WW

46.5/2 = 23.25

Delaying 23.25 WWs and BT by 1 gcd =

WWs = 1,333x23.25 = 30,992 dmg lost
BTs = 1,575*23.25 = 36,619 dmg lost.

Splitting the damage lost a bit more fairly since we get more BTs in than we do WWs and thus will delay it more often.

lost dmg = (dmg lost per 1.5s delay)*(number of 1.5s delays)
WW = 1,333*18.6 = 24,794 dmg lost
BT = 1,575*27.9 = 43,942 dmg lost.

This is as bad as it gets. Clearly slamming every proc chance is a huge win even when have to delay WW or BT every times.

But from the previous post we know that only about 26 of those 46.5 BS crits will be where we need to make a delay decision. So lets assume we delay every one of those 26.

Splitting those proportionally amongst BT and WW we get

BT = 1,575*15.6 = 24,570 lost BT damage
WW = 1,333*10.4 = 13,863 lost WW damage.

Given the 1% chance at back to back to bloodsurge procs that means only .26 (on average) of those "delays" will see a second BS proc.

So we are losing over 38K damage with the potential gain of .26 of a slam or roughly 1,350 damage.

But....and there's always a but isn't there?

The only way you can get a 100% accurate picture of this problem is create a simulator and model it. Math thrown together on the back of a napkin or on a web forum can be close enough to say we are chasing the proverbial needle in a haystack and it's just not worth worrying about. But the reality is the problem is too complex to solve without modeling it.

For instance given a 50% melee crit rate over the course of millions of attacks you'll find the BT and WW proc Bloodsurge almost exactly 10% of the time. But what's virtually impossible to take into account in spreadsheet or napkin math are mechanics like Slam reseting your swing timers. This is going to impact the number of heroic strikes you get in. Sure 10% of them will proc Bloodsurge given a large enough sample but even over a 10 minute fight it's doubtful you'll get in as many heroic strikes as I used in my calculations. Along these lines are things like other procs. When you have a crit trinket proc and it stacks with a haste proc and you get a weapon enchant proc and a meta gem proc... Spreadsheets just aren't good tools for dealing with situations like this.

Originally Posted by XI- View Post
Do you have a point or are you just crying now?

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Old 01/06/09, 6:48 PM   #478
 Darkmyst
Terrible Terry Tate, Forum Linebacker.
 
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Elyree
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Originally Posted by Kolmar View Post
Is this accurate? From reading the notes I took it as being a 20% chance on all *hits*, normalizing it for the most part and making it more useful at lower gear levels.



I'm also thinking this may be erroneous; I'm pretty sure I can reck->ww->bt->slam on live, each attack burning 1 charge. I'll test for certain when I get home tonight.

No disrespect intended of course, but I want to make sure I'm not misguided either in my interpretation of PTR notes and talent trees.

You're right about the notes.

So we'll get 93 BS procs per 10 minutes. And the overall chance at back to back procs is 4%, not 1%. and the b2b2b chance is .8% instead of .1%.

But we still only have something like 13 decision points per minute (guesstimate given the number of HS's is hard to nail down accurately) of which only 4% will actually see a back to back proc.

Look at it this way. Of every 100 BT or WWs delayed when we face that decision, 96 of them are going to be wasted.

It's just not worth worrying about. If you want to compensate for it in a spreadsheet just assume 4% of your Bloodsurge procs are going to go to waste. In other words use a 19.2% proc rate for Bloodsurge instead of a 20% one.

Originally Posted by XI- View Post
Do you have a point or are you just crying now?

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Old 01/06/09, 7:33 PM   #479
Natural
Don Flamenco
 
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Tauren Warrior
 
Tichondrius
Originally Posted by Darkmyst View Post
You're right about the notes.

So we'll get 93 BS procs per 10 minutes. And the overall chance at back to back procs is 4%, not 1%. and the b2b2b chance is .8% instead of .1%.

But we still only have something like 13 decision points per minute (guesstimate given the number of HS's is hard to nail down accurately) of which only 4% will actually see a back to back proc.

Look at it this way. Of every 100 BT or WWs delayed when we face that decision, 96 of them are going to be wasted.

It's just not worth worrying about. If you want to compensate for it in a spreadsheet just assume 4% of your Bloodsurge procs are going to go to waste. In other words use a 19.2% proc rate for Bloodsurge instead of a 20% one.
While I agree with your overall message that it's going to be difficult to analyze/optimize, your estimate for overlapping bloodsurges is an order of magnitude off. Assuming your analysis, you would need to subtract the 4% from the 20%, leaving 16%. Assume that you whirlwind and it proc's bloodsurge, but you are already using Bloodthirst for your next GCD. There's a independent 20% chance that your Bloodthirst will also proc bloodsurge. Therefore, there is a 20% chance that your proc will overlap and be wasted. That takes your 20% to 16%.

While it's fun to theorycraft the new Bloodsurge, the math is fuzzy as hell and I really think we should keep our napkin math to ourselves. I'm frankly of the opinion that it's not going to make a huge difference in our final numbers assuming we use the abilities and manage rage. I honestly prefer the existing design where I only need to pay attention for a Bloodsurge once every 5 seconds.

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Old 01/07/09, 12:03 AM   #480
landsoul
Myrmidon Champion
 
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Worgen Warrior
 
Alterac Mountains
I don't think bloodsurge will work for off-hand WW. Deep wounds doesn't proc off of OH WW crits. Someone needs to look at it on PTR. Hit 100 WW's and record if your get a bloodsurge proc off of each WW. Determine if you get close to 40 surge procs or 20 surge procs. If I have time I might go test this out.

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Old 01/07/09, 12:10 AM   #481
Graul
King Hippo
 
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Orc Warrior
 
Fenris
Originally Posted by Natural View Post
I honestly prefer the existing design where I only need to pay attention for a Bloodsurge once every 5 seconds.
I don't really know too many that can't wait for the upcoming change from a PvE perspective. All the change did was slightly improve Fury for PvP and just make PvE more chaotic just to get similar results as to what we are getting now.

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Old 01/07/09, 12:25 AM   #482
landsoul
Myrmidon Champion
 
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Worgen Warrior
 
Alterac Mountains
Only thing Bloodsurge gives us for PvP is a cheap rage attack that's similar in damage to bloodthirst. I'd rather bloodthirst occasionally and heal myself, and usually my PvP builds don't have the points for Bloodsurge. I don't have too much excess rage to use a full rotation in PvP in the first place.

>--Coaching Site--< Private coaching / Warrior Resource
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Old 01/07/09, 3:39 AM   #483
sulliwan
Piston Honda
 
Murloc Druid
 
Al'Akir (EU)
Originally Posted by landsoul View Post
Deep wounds doesn't proc off of OH WW crits.
Yes it does. It procs offhand deep wounds on an offhand crit just like expected. (However, if you get double crit on ww, only the offhand deep wounds gets applied)

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Old 01/07/09, 8:05 AM   #484
landsoul
Myrmidon Champion
 
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Worgen Warrior
 
Alterac Mountains
Astonishingly they do. I would have never thought. I swore I checked it in the beta. Allright, so then we do a little math to determine the differing chances to get wounds form main or off range using the crit chance of whirlwind.

chance both will crit = (main hand chance) * (off hand chance)
chance only main will crit = (main hand chance) * (1 - off hand chance)
chance only off will crit = (off hand chance) * (1 - main hand chance)

So then, you get main hand wounds from only when main crits, and offhand wounds when both or only off hand crits.

Now after playing on the current PTR for a while, practicing rotations and recording relationships between a full rotation and whirlwind in general, I can definitely say that there is extremely little chance that Slam can proc off of both hits of WW. I did 200 WW hits, and got 15 Slam! procs. I'd like to know if anyone gets any similar results.

Last edited by landsoul : 01/07/09 at 9:05 AM.

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Old 01/07/09, 12:29 PM   #485
Senjion
Glass Joe
 
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Blood Elf Paladin
 
Garrosh
Originally Posted by Shha View Post
Executes at full rage are at 13800 for me, or a bit above 17k with hysteria (which actually is a bit strange, since hysteria is supposedly adding 20% - those are the actual numbers though, i guess ill have to look at it closer).
It is my understanding that Hysteria adds 20% to the base damage that you deal, meaning you actually get more from it on critical strikes then you would from normal hits. 20% damage increase when factored with Impale and CSD turns into 24.6% increased damage on a crit.

This would turn your 13800 Execute into a 17194 Execute with Hysteria active.

Please, correct me if I'm wrong.


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Old 01/07/09, 2:40 PM   #486
dysent
Von Kaiser
 
Undead Warrior
 
Maelstrom
Has anyone tested if Bloodsurge - Whirlwind works similarly to how recklessness charge usage does?
E.g. 1 enemy hit = 1 chance (1 charge used), 2 enemies hit = 2 chances (2 charges used), and so on

This would give you a very high likelihood of a slam! proc if you're able to position to WW multiple targets on the fights where this is possible, and might change the way you'd use the rotation on these fights. The question was asked on page 18, but I didn't see any answers there.

[edit: also, Landsoul's numbers would indicate that it really is a 20% chance on CRIT, not on hit like the notes say, unless he was very unlucky. That's disturbing, because it would mean that the proc rate is outright lower.]

[edit again: Natural is asking the same question I am - I was confused by terminology. By 200 WW hits, I thought Landsoul meant 200 applications of WW, not 100 applications with 2 hits/application. Be good to know if 2+ enemies changes the procrate]

Last edited by dysent : 01/07/09 at 3:11 PM.

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Old 01/07/09, 2:54 PM   #487
Natural
Don Flamenco
 
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Tauren Warrior
 
Tichondrius
Originally Posted by dysent View Post
[edit: also, Landsoul's numbers would indicate that it really is a 20% chance on CRIT, not on hit like the notes say, unless he was very unlucky. That's disturbing, because it would mean that the proc rate is outright lower]
Landsoul was attempting to answer the question: Is bloodsurge 20% chance on whirlwind use? Or 20% chance on each whirlwind hit?

He tested 200 hits (100 uses) probably against a target dummy. If it's 20% per whirlwind use, we would expect ~20 bloodsurges. If it's 20% per whirlwind hit, we would expect ~40 bloodsurges. His test resulted in 15 which points to 20% per whirlwind use.

It's still not clear to me if Bloodsurge is proc'ing off of the ability or the mainhand-only hit. The only way to figure this out would be to run an extended test against multiple targets.

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Old 01/07/09, 4:31 PM   #488
landsoul
Myrmidon Champion
 
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Worgen Warrior
 
Alterac Mountains
Ironforge has an area where 2 dummies are side by side and you can whirlwind them with a similar test, and I can rally up some results later tonite on the PTR after a long nap.

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Old 01/07/09, 5:38 PM   #489
Romoose
Glass Joe
 
Human Warrior
 
Black Dragonflight
Sorry to barge in from the Arms thread but I was intrigued by this question, ended up with 47 in 200 Whirlwinds (400 hits).

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Old 01/07/09, 8:41 PM   #490
Shha
King Hippo
 
Night Elf Warrior
 
Scilla
Originally Posted by landsoul View Post
Ironforge has an area where 2 dummies are side by side and you can whirlwind them with a similar test, and I can rally up some results later tonite on the PTR after a long nap.
There are 5 dummies in theramore cloe enough together

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Old 01/07/09, 8:43 PM   #491
landsoul
Myrmidon Champion
 
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Worgen Warrior
 
Alterac Mountains
You mean the ones that the NPC's are hitting outside the barracks?

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Old 01/08/09, 4:47 AM   #492
Shha
King Hippo
 
Night Elf Warrior
 
Scilla
Yea they work too - they are lvl 1, so you dont miss etc either.

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Old 01/08/09, 11:34 AM   #493
Swordanboard
Glass Joe
 
Draenei Warrior
 
Ner'zhul
A side note: when AEing, you want your whirlwind to use the last charge of recklessness, as it will crit on all the targets you hit but only take up that last charge.
If you use a swing timer you can delay the WW to coincide with a Heroic Strike, properly abusing the last charge of Recklessness.

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Old 01/08/09, 1:50 PM   #494
Borelock
Glass Joe
 
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Orc Warrior
 
Terenas (EU)
Originally Posted by Senjion View Post
It is my understanding that Hysteria adds 20% to the base damage that you deal, meaning you actually get more from it on critical strikes then you would from normal hits. 20% damage increase when factored with Impale and CSD turns into 24.6% increased damage on a crit.

This would turn your 13800 Execute into a 17194 Execute with Hysteria active.

Please, correct me if I'm wrong.
This is correct to the best of my knowledge and certainly adds up with WWS I have from the last few clears. (Will edit a link in shortly, in the process of converting to SWS)

Originally Posted by Romoose View Post
Sorry to barge in from the Arms thread but I was intrigued by this question, ended up with 47 in 200 Whirlwinds (400 hits).
Did you remember to respec TG and or equip an offhand on your way over or are these results for Arms spec with a single weapon?

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Old 01/08/09, 2:16 PM   #495
Schneeb
Don Flamenco
 
Night Elf Warrior
 
<SIN>
Neptulon (EU)
Originally Posted by Swordanboard View Post
If you use a swing timer you can delay the WW to coincide with a Heroic Strike, properly abusing the last charge of Recklessness.
What mod are you using? I've used quartz in the past (does it now show MH only?) but it seems to be stumped by titans grip, currently I just rely on animations/sounds to get a rough idea of swings.

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Old 01/08/09, 3:42 PM   #496
Romoose
Glass Joe
 
Human Warrior
 
Black Dragonflight
Borelock: Yes, TG specced, using Demise and Skull-Clad.

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Old 01/08/09, 6:09 PM   #497
Midgehh
Glass Joe
 
Gnome Warrior
 
Cho'gall
Any one been on the ptr to see what the new reduced armor penalty is on berserking?

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Old 01/08/09, 7:25 PM   #498
Swordanboard
Glass Joe
 
Draenei Warrior
 
Ner'zhul
Originally Posted by Schneeb View Post
What mod are you using? I've used quartz in the past (does it now show MH only?) but it seems to be stumped by titans grip, currently I just rely on animations/sounds to get a rough idea of swings.
Unfortunately that's what I've been using as well (intuition) - I've not made a point to get quartz or see if there is a working contemporary. Last I used Quartz it was resetting swing timers for using slam, so I don't know what's good now.

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Old 01/08/09, 9:07 PM   #499
xavier2k3
Von Kaiser
 
Human Warrior
 
Kor'gall (EU)
Originally Posted by Midgehh View Post
Any one been on the ptr to see what the new reduced armor penalty is on berserking?
When I went on yesterday the penalty was still 25%. PTRs are offline for a new build atm, so maybe it'll show up in that.

EDIT: Just refreshed MMO-Champ and they have new patch notes for latest build.

Enchanting

* Enchant Weapon- Berserking now reduces your armor by 5%. (Down from 25%)

Last edited by xavier2k3 : 01/08/09 at 9:21 PM.

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Old 01/08/09, 11:45 PM   #500
Mctanksalot
Glass Joe
 
Tauren Warrior
 
Burning Legion
Has anyone done any math regarding the 4pc t7 bonus for fury? I will try it out myself when i get 4 pieces, but at least 3 slots have better pieces out of set. Wondering if the loss of stats is worth the proc (my guess would be no)

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