Probability. Even if your dodge chance is .10% and your weapons swing 1000 times in a raid it's possible that every single swing will be dodged. It's highly improbable, but that doesn't mean it can't happen.

It's the same reason you can flip a coin and get the same side multiple times in a row. The law of averages only dictates behavior over an extremely large sample size, individual instances can vary wildly.

In case anybody is still wondering about if Titan's grip warriors need 14% hit to not miss specials ;I didn't reset my recount over the whole 10man naxxramas run and didn't miss a single special ability with 343(10.46%) hit rating from gear and 3/3 precision.

http://i33.tinypic.com/34y5ngi.jpg

There are many many threads on this very topic at the moment. See here for more. The general consensus seems to be that the hit cap is actually 8% as opposed to 9% lowering the hit that you'd need to overcome the TG penalty by 1%.

I myself am running 336 (10.25%) with TG and am not seeing any yellow misses in raids with 3/3 in Precision.

The widow must have something up with her. She also dodged one of my attacks and I'm 100% certain I was slightly over the expertise cap w/ 2/2. My armory shows different stats than what I had last night...I haven't completed my gemming/enchanting overhaul since last nights upgrade...the dodge on widow can be seen here..

WOW Meter Online

Edit: I looked through the log and had the following dodges on boss fights.

Widow - 1 Dodge
4HM - 1 Dodge
Thaddius - 1 Dodge
Sapphiron - 2 Dodge

My armory panel confirmed I was expertised cap as well as landsouls spreadsheet.

Just like what Darian said about flipping a coin, probability and needing a very large sample size. How many weeks worth of WWS do we have of actual raiding to back up this "sudden revalation" that the hit cap is 1% lower than first thought? I don't count ten minutes of Heroic Dummy testing as proof of anything. Are we to assume that just because there have not been any reported misses over the last week that it's in fact been lowered? Or has someone already combed a few hundred WWS parses of Horde players (no hit aura) sitting under 361?

I have 40-50 parses, all being approximately 1% under the hit cap and zero misses on yellows. All of which are from the past 3 weeks of raiding in 10/25 nax, 10/25 sarth, 10 maly.

Nor do I.

Conversely are we to assume that based on all of the data we do have, that we all just happen to be exceptionally lucky? I think not. I'm not here posting anecdotal evidence, my stasiscl prases are hosted on my website, if you'd like to comb them I'd be happy to provide you a link.

If you read the other thread there are several other people that have seen similar results and WWS's to support the theory.

We will never be able to prove that the hit cap is lowered by 1% by showing WWS parses of people not missing at lower than 11% hit before precision.A billion swings of people not missing is not hard evidence; Speaking for myself though,I made the observation that no one here proved that the special miss chance for specials for a TG warrior is more than 13% while several people report otherwise.

The case here is,how much and what kind of "evidence" do we need to convince ourselves things have changed?

Patch 3.0.8 PTR Notes

If this is true, do we get another fair DPS-boost in the upcoming patch?

Soon, I (hopefully) will be in a raiding guild as a DPS-warrior, but I've hadn't the chance to farm any 'good' DPS-Plate.
Which stat should I go for, when I start raiding with a fury-spec?
So, the hit chance penalty will be removed. How much hit do I then need for capping my yellow attacks? About 8%?
Assuming I've got about 8% hit, should I go for more AP after reaching that hitvalue?

I'm sorry for my mediocre english.

Greetz
Sprayhead

My gut feeling is they will nerf deep wounds after these buffs to dps.

Nevermind, MMO is listing them now so they are most likely legitimate changes.

It's been posted here that the Deep Wounds fixes (full rank OH and properly applied from BT) are already in effect but were never announced. I haven't had a chance to test it out myself yet.

The wording of the Bloodsurge change seems to imply that it is no longer a guaranteed proc off of crits, but like Sudden Death is a chance after hits with the aforementioned abilities.

Whatever the case, it seems likely that there will be a large impetus to space Bloodthirst and Whirlwind apart from each other by a GCD in order to leave room for Bloodsurge procs. The old one after the other method would potentially result in a large number of overwritten procs.

The change to bloodsurge also would be detrimental to the rending rotation that has been suggested in this thread. (I presonally tried it out last night and it ended up being fairly simple to work in and came out as 4% of my dps on patchwork - I approve). Essentially the cost of dumping or missing rage would go up as heroic strikes could proc a slam. The oppertunity cost of rending goes beyond the extra heroic strike damage and includes potentially missed slams.

Will Bloodsurge still be a three point talent then? Will it just be like UBW and occur more often which each rank? Or will it be a change to a one point talent? I hope the latter to free up two extra talent points and mostly because I hate these "occurs more often than rank 2" talents. This will definitely effect rotation since HS rage dumps can proc Slam. Anyone on the PTR able to clue us in?

The removal of hit penalty was surprising since fury warriors are putting up such good DPS right now. I don't see them nerfing Deep Wounds any because it seems like it would cripple Arms DPS too much when compared to Fury, a gap which is already growing. Is there any tenative release for this patch? Or is likely to be after the new year before we see these changes?

I think the removal of the hit penalty was more of a pvp buff for fury ,as it was not exactly hard to hit 13% without gemming after people started rocking full naxx gear.

EXP > STR > CRIT. I also wouldn't stop trying to get your hit up until we know this is going to make it off of PTR.

Exactly, although you would be suprised at how many people are overjoyed with the strange notion that running around with only 8% hit using 2x 3.4 speed weapons is somehow conducive to good PvE DPS. Also, the change to Bloodsurge (20% chance on a BT/WW/HS hit) doesn't even do anything other than to make it more random until you can use HS more liberally. You're basically going to have the same DPS, but with a rotation that's "busier" and closer to Arms. That too seems more like a PvP change than anything.

So how much hit is going to be needed after the change and not being a dranaei?

How much exp is that?

Has anyone else noticed a significant decrease in the miss rate on white hits on bosses? For example, a WWS for Graul, who has a 10% miss rate on bosses with 14% hit(w/ precision): Wow Web Stats

I've seen similar results on virtually every WWS I've looked at. The hit% + miss% is adding up to ~24% on bosses too often to just be a coincidence. Assuming the special/base miss chance was reduced to 8%, this would put the DW miss penalty at ~16% rather than 19%. His trash miss rate is also lower than you'd expect by about 3% as well, which is further evidence. 7.3% + 14% = 21.3%, which is around what you'd expect if the miss chance was 16% + 5-6% base(depending if the trash was 80-82).

Edit, see also: Previously linked recount from training dummy: http://elitistjerks.com/attachments/...itans_grip.jpg
13.19% +hit, 11% miss rate = 24.19% base miss.

Edit: opposing evidence showing ~28% miss as would be expected http://img254.imageshack.us/img254/4...8032317ix4.jpg

Could more people post WWS reports from full clears or lengthy training dummy tests?

If you mean the expertise cap ,it's 26 expertise,18 with weapon mastery.

Not expertise rating,expertise.