Ah yes, forgot to take those into account. So heroic strike scales a bit faster than the average MH swing. Rend should still scale faster though, correct? It doesn't seem like the scaling of glance, DW, and slam procs is going to undo the 3-fold increase in damage from the napkin math that was done a few posts ago (~8700 rend vs ~2700 heroic strike). Now the question is at what gear levels does rend become too good to pass up?
On that same thought, if BT outdoes rend due to DW, and slam hits for less than BT, rend should become > slam before it becomes > BT (DW taken into account). This would imply that the priorities would first change to BT/WW> rend > slam at some gear level (hopefully within Wrath ilevel, and not i500 which Blizzard isn't balancing towards in this expansion). With glyph of rending, would it take much for the average slam + DW damage to become less than rend? Additionally, the slam proc isn't always wasted, as you can sacrifice 3 to 3.5 of the seconds to stance dance to rend and still have some time to be in zerker and use your slam proc.
Bare with me, here's some math:
Say on average, 31% of your melee swings (i.e., heroic strikes), sync up with the gap in the BT/WW rotation so that you receive a chance to proc slam as early as possible in the free GCD period. Assume you have 100% heroic strike uptime (not hard at TotGC gear level), and 20% slam procs off of those melee swings. That will leave enough GCD to battle, rend, berserker, and slam before the BT/WW rotation resumes. So the real benefit from rending is
average damage from rend + .31 * (.20 * (average slam damage + DW from slam)
vs
(average heroic strike + DW HS) - (average MH swing + DW MH) + .20 * (average slam damage + DW slam)
If the gap in the rotation is 6.5 seconds, the time it takes to switch to battle stance is 1 second, rend's GCD is 1.5 seconds (allowing time to stance dance back), slam's GCD is 1.5 seconds (1 second with 4pcT10), and given a .5 second reaction time/latency correction, then 1+1.5+0.5+1.5/6.5 = 4.5/6.5 = 69% of the time it is impossible to use the slam proc without cutting into the BT/WW rotation. This leaves 2 seconds, or 31% chance, of having a heroic strike go off in the ideal slot in your rotation, which would itself have a 20% chance to proc slam. (This is how I came up with 31% chance)
A: average damage from rend
B: average damage from slam
C: average damage from heroic strike
D: average damage from MH
E: crit% * average DW damage
A + .31*.20*B > C - D + .20*B
A > C - D + .138*B
factoring in the deep wounds...
A > (C + E) - (D + E) + (.138* (B + E) )
So is A > C - D + .138*(B + E) true?
Taking one of my logs I get
8734 > 5975 - 3003 + .138*(6087 + .60*6282)
8734 > 4332
So, correct me if I missed something, those at similar gear levels should be prioritizing rend over slam as long as it doesn't cut into the BT/WW rotation
Note that rage generation was assumed not to be a problem
Parse used:
World of Logs - Real Time Raid Analysis
This parse shows 9.4% chance to miss. Number of swings in parse = 2262 swings.
Actual swings = 2262/.906 = 2497 swings.
Average melee dmg/number of attacks = 6560915 dmg/2497 attacks = 2628 average dmg per attack.
MH dmg: 1x+.75x = 2*2628 = 5256 => x = 3003 dmg, where x is average MH dmg with misses factored in