Took me a bit of thinking on it, but I realized that you average out the ticks per chi by adding per-tick probabilities until you hit 100, like so:

OLD: 30 + 30 + 30 + 30 = 120 = chi 1/3 of the way through tick 4 = 3.3333... ticks per chi
NEW: 15 + 30 + 45 + 60 = 150 = chi 1/6 of the way through tick 4 = 3.16666666... ticks per chi

So basically soothing's average chi generation has increased by ~5%. So your overall average per-tick chi generation chance is roughly 31.5%

I'm ballparking the average amount of ticks to get 1 chi. If something has an x% probability to happen per event, you can get the average number of events it takes for that thing to happen via dividing 1/x. The addition logic I did above is just a rearranging of the same math, done in such a way that you can apply it to cases where x isn't constant.

I simulated the new soothing mist formular (10000000 iterations).


Average Chi income for one full sm cast is 2,8343234 Chi.

So the chance per tick is 31,492482 %

Edit:

1 Chi 317830 3,18%
2 Chi 3409794 34,10%
3 Chi 4249220 42,49%
4 Chi 1688398 16,88%
5 Chi 304848 3,05%
6 Chi 28429 0,28%
7 Chi 1444 0,01%
8 Chi 37 0,00%

Thinking about it in terms of casts is wrong. The chances don't reset with a new cast. If you channel SM for 3 ticks, none of them proc a chi, then you stop casting... and then a few sec later, cast SM again, its first tick will have a 60% chance to proc it.

Yeah, ignore my math up there, 34% is the proper way to ballpark it, and what I'll use in the calculator. So they effectively buffed it back to where it was in the first week of 5.1.

On another note, something to consider the viability of is /cancelaura-ing SCK after it gets you your chi/MM proc, since it's cheaper than jab. You'd probably only want to consider this in situations where the direct healing of SCK would be almost entirely overheal. I'll try coding that into the calculator this weekend.

@Astrylian: Is this how it behaves on PTR or are you assuming that SM remembers between casts? Do we get a self-buff tracking this modifier?

@Spleener: You mean (slight) nerf? Isn't the chance right now at 35%?

It was 35% when the 5.1 patch went live, but was nerfed to 30% in a hotfix a week or two afterwards. The tooltip hasn't been updated on live servers yet.

@Spleener: OK, I simply assumed the values from wowhead were correct. Completely forgot about any hotfixes. Thanks!

@Astrylian: Well, that's just awkward. I'm guessing someone will come up with addons or maybe WeakAura has a way to track it.

[EDIT: ok I missed a whole page. But, regardless, my # for Chi generation rate doesn't match anything anyone has said so far and I think it's right, so, I'm leaving it here :P . Also my question on whether it resets was answered so that makes this number more useful.]

[EDIT 2: 2.94 ticks per Chi is the same as the 34.02% number given above actually, so we agree there.]

Assuming the built-up proc chance doesn't reset each time you stop channeling (i.e. so this hidden proc increase always continues until you get a proc), it's on average 2.94 ticks to get each Chi. If it does reset when you stop channeling, it is somewhat worse since you lose ground unless you stop channeling right after a Chi (this would be pretty annoying).

Can do more presentable math later if you need, but spreadsheet with the quick calc is attached.

----

I think the way to conceptualize a free Chi while Fistweaving is that it upgrades a TP to a BK. There are only two things you can do while fistweaving: Jab-TP (when you don't have a Chi or don't want to spend it) and Jab-BK (costing 1 Chi). Both cost the same mana, the only difference is whether you want to spend the Chi. (Technically Jab-TP generates 0.2 Chi via Vital Mist).

You're pulling in a lot of Chi from outside the fistweaving rotation (one from ReM every 8 seconds, and one from Expel Harm every 15, in addition to Vital Mists and other small things). These get turned into Jab-BK's. You basically never Jab-Jab-BK.

The whole point is that this way, you don't need to go out of your way to track it. You can stop/start Soothing whenever you like and you won't impair your Chi generation, you'll just get a Chi every ~3 ticks over the course of the fight on average, mostly like you do now. If they'd done it the other way and had it reset, then you'd have to game it constantly and it would be irritating.

Honestly the only funny thing about this whole change is that it doesn't really do anything material, just assuages people's complaints about randomness is supposed to feel like.

Well, this is an interesting discovery I made while coding shit into the calculator. Posting about it partially so you guys don't go "lol wtf mate" when the update goes live, and partially because I want to make sure my logic is right:

EDIT: NEVER MIND THIS IS STUPID THANKS HAMLET


tl;dr- crit is actually worth significantly more mp5 than spirit?

So, one spirit is a pretty static and constant 0.52 mp5 in combat. Easy to model.

One crit rating, on the other hand, is a bit more complicated, as its mp5 benefit comes from additional tea stacks. One crit rating is an additional 1/600 = 0.001666666666666% (repeating, of course) chance to crit, which is a corresponding increase to the chance that your mana tea proc will produce two stacks instead of one, or 8% mana (24000) instead of 4%(12000.) You can basically model this as the base amount of 12k being increased by an amount equal to your crit percent, so 1 crit rating on average increases your tea returns by 1/600 * 12000 = 20 mana per tea stack.

To turn this into mp5, you multiply that average extra mana per tea stack by your total base tea stack generation for the fight (on WoL you can get this by summing up your total chi generated and dividing it by 4,) divide it by the fight length in seconds, and multiply by 5. So for 1 crit rating you get:

20 mana per tea charge * 45 tea charges used = 900 mana / 420 seconds * 5 = 10.714 mp5 per 1 crit rating.

Running int through the exact same math (2533.663574218750000 int for 1% crit) gets you 2.54 mp5 per 1 int.

The obvious caveat here is that you actually have to use the tea charges for the mp5 to be useful. At extreme levels of crit you could in theory hit the point where it's impossible to keep up with your tea charges when glyphed, but even at the highest practical chi consumption rate of constantly chaining jabx2->BoK/uplift (2 chi every 3s, or 6 chi every 9s) you'd need over 33.33333% crit to potentially get behind.

I'm not sure if I feel like I'm missing something here because I'm actually missing something here, or if I feel like I'm missing something here because on some level I don't like the result.