I've decided to share a cheap trick. It is not something extremely hard to come up with, but it's not too obvious as well.

As you know, the roughest two seconds of any fight are ones before you manage to get your Shuffle rolling. Your DTPS is highest and if it's a straight ahead dive into burst of damage (say, H Mel'jarak), it's quite dangerous as well. Usually, you pre-stack absorption shields on yourself to last longer, but there is another option - pre-pull Guarding. Our Chi decays at rates much higher that we can generate out of combat, and Guard requires two. There's tiger [my bad : ) ] stance, which lets you generate 2 Chi with each EH, so, if you generate sufficient amount of Chi, then wait till one of them decays, then quickly switch into defensive stance and pop another EH, you'll be able to Guard yourself before pull. It's even better, if you put on your passive agility trinkets before doing so, as Guards' AP scaling is more than generous. I know it might sound like a bad idea for most of you, who think that casting Guard 10 seconds into fight is much better choice due to total damage reduction, but if it's the initial spike that bothers you and there's no window of opportunity with 2 Chi available for Guard within next 10-20 seconds after pull, it suddenly becomes a great option : ) There...

I'm gonna be crafty here and blame late night time for not proofreading my message. Thank you for your corrections, though.

Well, I do not possess that level of control. I mean, I am a tank. I start the countdown whenever I feel ready, but it feels terrible to make 24 people wait while you're building up that tiny little advantage that is unlikely to be important enough. Our guild already has a warlock to frustrate everyone with such things : ) Honestly, I don't even bother pre-Guarding on any fight other than H Mel'jarak, since it's the only fight where I struggle keeping my Shuffle up and purifying at least when I hit red from the very beginning.

P.S. You forgot Keg Smash. That's 2 Chi at the very beginning of the fight. If it lands, of course. But as a person who've just mixed up two different stances, I'm not blaming you for that mistake at all

I seriously spent several minutes saying to myself "wait, that's not actually what it feels like I do, but I can't come up with what's wrong about it."

All new raid trinkets are visible on MMO champ front page (Blue post).

Rune of re-origination especially sounds interesting.

There's an undocumented feature of the Delicate Vial that Ghostcrawler mentioned: it can stack up to 3 times. Tooltip doesn't mention it, but GC points it out in this post

If memory serves correctly, Mastery is currently 1200 rating to 1% Stagger increase. It's being buffed by 25% in 5.2, meaning 900 rating will equal 1% Stagger increase. In average, haste-reforged raid gear, this translates to around a 2% increase to Staggered damage percentage. I am not a big fan of mastery, but I assure you, 2% is not to be sniffed at. This is a nice change.

Combine the trinket with 2pc t14 and 2pc t15 and Monks could be in a fantabulous position early in the tier, right? A large part of me definitely hates the trinket since it's dodge and mastery, but the value of it combined with the interaction with 2pc t15 is worth examining, so, let's take a further look.

The trinket has a 4% chance to proc on dodges and a 20 second duration, and according to MMO-Champion it has no ICD. At 9935 Mastery, the trinket is worth (9935/900 = 11.03888) ~11% Stagger value per stack. The 2pc t15 is 12% Stagger value increase (worth 10800 Mastery) for X seconds after an X duration Elusive Brew.

Just speaking personally, I idle around 6500 Mastery raid buffed in my current gear, and I am dumping Mastery as much as I possibly can. Base Stagger increase from Mastery is 4%, 6500 Mastery is 7.2% after patch (5.42% right now), so Mastery would impart an 11.2% increase to Stagger value. The 20% base Stagger from being in Ox Stance, 20% from Shuffle and 11.2% from Mastery all stack additively, and my understanding is that 2pc t15 stacks additively as well. That could be wrong, but the difference between the 12% additional Stagger imparted by 2p t15 being additive or multiplicative is only worth about 2-3%. That's still statistically quite significant, but it's still a huge amount of Stagger increase, regardless.

A comparably-geared, haste-oriented Monk would, with 2pc t15 active and just one stack of this trinket, have 20 + 20 + 4 + 7.2 + 11 + 12 = 74.2% damage transferred into Stagger. Now, this is only while both buffs are active, but this is ludicrous. If the trinket were stacked three times with the other buffs and gearing all as they were, it would be 20 + 20 + 4 + 7.2 + 33 + 12 = 96.2%.

4% is 1/25. So, 1 out of every 25 dodges will grant us an additional 11% Stagger value. Against normal bosses with swing timers of 2.5 seconds, this is not great. One proc every 62.5 seconds, assuming 100% dodge rate, which is dumb. Assuming 35% dodge chance, which is still high, the procrate jumps to one proc every 178.57 seconds.

Where this trinket will not suck is in every Brewmaster's favorite tanking scenario: AoE tanking. So, let's say we're tanking 5 mobs with 2.5 second swing timers. This will result in a proc every 12.5 seconds if we dodge 100% of attacks. We still won't, but trying again with 35% dodge chance (in a short duration like this that yields itself to being covered by Elusive Brew, this now seems low), we will get a proc every 35.7 seconds.

20 second duration on a proc every 179 seconds = 11% uptime
9935 Mastery proc * .11 uptime = 1093 Mastery over time
20 second duration on a proc every 36 seconds = 56% uptime
9935 Mastery proc * .56 uptime = 5564 Mastery over time

So, conclusion time. The proc on this thing is very potent, but the uptime is really, really bad in single target. In AoE tanking, I think this thing will be solid, but in single target I am wholly unconvinced, for now. It can play incredibly well with the 2pc if it procs from EB (logical), but it's uncontrollable, low uptime and has a horrible base stat on it. Even if it can stack multiple times, averages say that you will not stack it up three times.

Now, I'm all for "never tell me the odds," and the like, but if you choose to use this trinket, you've got to ask yourself one question: "'Do I feel lucky?' Well, do you, punk?"

I also want to briefly touch on the Rune of Re-Origination. If it were an on-use instead of a proc, I think it could have some real value if you chose to reforge heavy Mastery for a fight. As it stands, I see no way we can use it as Brewmasters. Ordinarily, we want 8k-ish Haste and as much more Crit as we can pile on afterward. Losing Crit and Mastery in order to be randomly energy capped is horrible. Let's say you reforge Mastery for a particularly bruising encounter. Losing what little energy regeneration you have from Haste and your EB procrate taking a nosedive to receive a random burst of Mastery is not good either. I want to like this trinket, and I could if it had something more, but it is just not good for Brewmaster at present.

To quote Ghostcrawler on the trinket:
I think there are scenarios where dps classes and specs can do exactly that, and Bear Druid may as well, I don't know. What I do know is Brewmaster, and as for us, no, not too much.

New value per percent will be 960 (1200/1.25). And bosses in 5.1 had swing timers of 1.5, all of them save Sha.
I w/o agility stacking have ~13% dodge and will have 35 more before I kiss my 2T14 goodbye and only 30 - after I do. That's 38,5% dodge post-suppression. It will be more in T15 as I will have 2T14 at the beginning and much more agility later on (and the trinket itself has some). So, my estimate of our dodge chance against a boss is 40%. My napkin math shows it has about 1.1% chance to proc under EB under one enemy's attacks per second. If that's 5 adds, we'll have more attacks per second and less dodge suppression. It's gonna be extremely valuable on tankswitch fights, where we have some time to pool EB, and on multiple add fights.

Okay, I quickly realized what I had done wrong before. I assumed a 25% drop in the cost of Mastery to reach a certain value of Stagger. This would be a 33% increase in Mastery scaling. Dumb mistake.

1200 / 1.333 = 1200 * .75 = 900
1200 / 1.25 = 1200 * .8 = 960

Okay, so at 960 Mastery rating per percentage of damage sloughed off by Stagger, 9935 Mastery rating is worth 10.35% damage redistribution. Additionally, my 6500 Mastery would be worth 6.77% more Stagger. So, again, 20 + 20 + 4 + 6.8 + 10.3 + 12 = 73.1% damage transferred into Stagger with one stack of the trinket and the t15 2pc buff active. Still an insane amount of damage reduction. With the trinket stacked three times, it would be 20 + 20 + 4 + 6.8 + 30.9 + 12 = 93.7%.

So, you posited that dodge chance would be around 38.5%. I totally buy that while EB is up. That number seems completely reasonable. The obvious problem is EB uptime. It fluctuates from fight to fight, so let's take a few examples.

Will of the Emperor:
Details for Llarold - 31-01 19:04 - Royal Militia - World of Logs
This encounter took 9:07, and I had 166 seconds' uptime on EB. Now, I actually generated 199 stacks of EB, but some were probably stacks over 15 while dancing, others were pre-Jan-Xi and Qin-Xi that fell off, and I probably ended the fight with some stacks on me as well. 33 seconds of EB is a lot to lose. Except in fights in which you never tank swap or move (e.g., Baleroc, Patchwerk), you will almost certainly lose some EB. This sucks.
Anyways, despite being 9:07 in length, the bosses don't actually show up until around 1:45 into the fight, so let's just shave all of that time off beforehand, and end up with 7:22 of boss time. 166 seconds of EB / 442 seconds of fight time = 37.57% EB uptime on what is pretty much the greatest EB stacking fight that will ever exist. That doesn't mean it's the best overall EB uptime fight, though, far from it. Let's compare another.

Wind Lord Mel'jarak:
Details for Llarold - 05-02 19:01 - Royal Militia - World of Logs
Okay, here is a constant uptime, no tank swapping, no EB pooling fight, and I had 95 seconds of EB in 4:53, meaning uptime was at 32.3%. There are some other fights I could compare, but they aren't really as valuable to examine. For example, Tsulong has day phase, which skews uptime values, Empress has an add phase transition and tank swapping, which again skews uptimes.

So, just roughly cutting the difference, let's idealize and say that uptime for EB is 35%. With 2p t14, .35% uptime * 35% dodge = 12.25% dodge over the course of a fight. Without the 2pc, .35 * 30 = 10.5% dodge over time. Now, on-demand dodge is worth more than passive dodge, because you can use it when you need it, pool it, it allows for more control, etc., but it still has a similar result with regards to this trinket's uptime.

Just using those two fights again, and consider what my average avoidances should be:
For Will, assuming 14.5% base Dodge, subtracting 4.5% for suppression and adding 37.57% EB uptime over the fight and I should dodge around 23.1% of attacks.

For Wind Lord, assuming 14.5% base Dodge, subtracting 4.5% for suppression and adding 32.3% EB uptime and I should dodge around 21.3% of attacks.

Now let's examine my actual avoidances:
Will of the Emperor:
Spell details for Melee - 31-01 19:04 - Royal Militia - World of Logs
45 hits landed on me. I avoided 88, 42 of which were dodges.
45 + 88 = 133 Attempted attacks against Llarold
42 / 133 = 31.6% Dodge

Wind Lord Mel'jarak:
Spell details for Melee - 05-02 19:01 - Royal Militia - World of Logs
277 hits landed on me. I avoided 386, 146 of which were dodges.
277 + 386 = 663 Attempted attacks against Llarold
146 / 663 = 22% Dodge

So, my actual dodge values were both higher than my average would have led me to anticipate. For Will, this can be attributed to the fact that I am pooling and gaming the system like a beast. As for Wind Lord, this is because Wind Lord's adds are not bosses, and I do not get a full 4.5% suppression against the adds.



So, anyhow. Let's take all of this useless information and say that the average uptime on EB is 35%, which seems high to me, but that's fine.
35 * .35 = 12.25% Dodge from EB, 14.5% Dodge from gear, 4.5% suppression = 22.25% Dodge

Playing again with the numbers from before:
4% is 1/25. 1 out of every 25 dodges will grant us an additional 10.4% Stagger value. Normal bosses have swing timers of 1.5 seconds. One proc every 37.5 seconds, assuming 100% dodge rate, which is still dumb. Assuming 22.25% dodge chance, the procrate is one proc every 168.54 seconds.
Again, tanking 5 mobs with 1.5 second swing timers will result in a proc every 7.5 seconds if dodging 100% of attacks. Trying again with 22.25% dodge chance, we will get a proc every 33.7 seconds. Trying with Elusive Brew actually active, 10% Dodge from gear after suppression and 35% Dodge from EB gives 45% dodge. With that, a proc will occur every 16.66 seconds, on average.

20 second duration on a proc every 169 seconds = 12% uptime
9935 Mastery proc * .12 uptime = 1192 Mastery over time
20 second duration on a proc every 34 seconds = 59% uptime
9935 Mastery proc * .59 uptime = 5861 Mastery over time
20 second duration on a proc every 17 seconds = 117% uptime
9935 Mastery proc * 1.17 uptime = 11624 Mastery over time

So, as long as you can maintain 100% uptime on EB, this thing is incredible. Otherwise, it's okay.
I concur that it will be best on aoe and pool fights, but I think it will be tremendously awful on the typical no-switch, single target fights.

I know it's sort of forcing you to do all those numbers all over again, but let's assume we pair the Delicate Vial with the Steadfast Talisman. How effective would trying to force a Vial proc by using the Talisman be?

Even with 100% dodge chance it's still 4% on dodge on Vial. With 1 attack per 1,5 seconds that's 2,(6)% chance per second. With 100% dodge, mind that. 36% chance of proccing the Vial during EB.

The value of Vial comes not from high averages, it's in being there when you might need it: it procs often in multiple adds fights, where damage spikes are killing dodge tanks; one might need to pair that trinket with a stamina one for such fights. On a side note, offtanking time (be it WoE scenario or regular tank swaps) also increases it's effective uptime through higher proc chances, but it still remains unreliable and undesirable compared to alternatives. I've done some math on value of the trinket proc on single tank Patchwerk fight and it was around 1300 mastery.

The Steadfast Talisman is essentially a lower potency, longer duration, way longer cooldown supplement to EB in this regard. The t15 2pc has the benefit of rewarding us with a Stagger increase for using EB, and the Vial works similarly. It's not strictly controllable, but using EB increases the odds. This trinket does the same thing to a slightly less reliable degree. I do think this trinket combination could work in certain situations. Heavy AoE strikes me as the most obvious, but maybe a boss who hits bone-crunchingly enough may justify it. Kinda doubt it for single target, though.
Good number-crunching, as well.