Both will show 2 instances of Guard, the one cast by statue should be higher frequency and on WoL won't have the self healing increase in the tooltip.

Recount will not track it, most probably for the same reasons it does not track blood shield absorbs for death knights.

Another few points:
1. Big idea for tanking T15 is: 2T - moar healz, 4T - moar resourcez! Our tier is an exception.
2. I believe I already am at 15% mastery raidbuffed w/ my Stuff and Bottle. That'd be 67% total stagger percentage under 2T15 effect. Given that it might be an option to cancelaura EB for immediate 12% stagger (similar druid tier worked this way in Firelands, i think), we have a good option for mitigating undodgeable damage. Like if everything else wasn't enough.
3. I'd go for 2T15 with 2 pieces of upgraded heroic T14. I simply don't like the concept "take more damage to take less damage". It might be good for monks running with low haste and mastery, though, since they won't get hit frequently and will be sitting on green stagger much more often, than I do, and benefit from free PB more, than I do.
4. 2T15 increases value of crit for BMs until EB's uptime reaches 50% in the long run. Afterwards it's value should be lower. Still higher than it is now, I guess. After buffs to mastery and removal of T30 Chi cost, I will have a chunk of stats available, and now I know where to put them

Edit: I never said we should aim for 50% uptime. I still think smoothening DTPS is our best tactic. We have other cooldowns to use and be used. For instance, one should not use Dampen Harm together with other cooldowns unless that is necessary to survive that Big Boom - it is just an overkill. Using guard together with elusive also turns on your Chuck mode for a short while, but leaves you without anything to cover your kung fu ass when they both fade. Same for Fortifying Brew. And that's before accounting for tank swaps. I just said the value of crit will be higher.

Tl;dr version: EB is still massively more powerful than 2-piece, and the only situation in which you should ever cancel EB early is if you are being hit by nothing but unavoidable attacks.

The listed critical strike values to maintain a certain uptime are the minimum required to mathematically expect said outcome on average. RNG occurs and we must deal.

The situations in which cancelling EB to obtain the bonus will provide the most damage reduction will be minimal, and predicated upon using increased Stagger on undodgeable mechanics.

A soft cap, since you need a review, is the value at which continued acquisition of a statistic suddenly incurs a dramatically reduced value of whatever it does (damage increase, reduction, etc.). A hard cap is when continued acquisition of a statistic has ZERO value.
T15 2-piece creates a soft cap on critical strike rating for EB regardless of whether EB and t15 2-piece are exclusive or stackable, the only variable is how hard of a downturn occurs after the soft cap. If the two values are exclusive, critical strike will incur a greater decrease than in the alternative situation. In either situation, you should try not overwrite or overlap the two buffs.

As for hard capping, the hard cap for EB occurs when you can no longer gain EB uptime from critical strike rating.
Let's throw down the procrate table for reference:

Weapon Speed	Minimum Charges per crit	Maximum Charges per crit
2.6 (1h)	1 (50%)	2 (50%)
3.3 (Staff)	2 (25%)	3 (75%)
3.6 (Polearm)	3 (100%)

To find the average buff time provided by an individual crit, we simply multiply the charge value provided by the proc chances and add them together.
(1 * .5 + 2 * .5) = 1.5
2 * .25 + 3 * .75 = 2.75
3 * 1 = 3
In order to maintain 100% uptime on EB, we must, at the bare minimum, reach an average time between crits equal to these times.

Weapon Speed	Average time between crits
2.6 (1h)	1.5s
3.3 (Staff)	2.75s
3.6 (Polearm)	3s

Now, haste values and attack speeds being varied, this results in a high-60's crit chance required to hard cap EB. Not a realistically attainable value.

The soft cap is a result of continued overlapping of EB and the 2-piece buff, as doing so is counterintuitive and diminishes the returns of the 2-piece. Let me demonstrate using numbers:

Assume with Stagger and raid buffs a Monk has 50% base avoidance, Staggers 53% of damage and has 21k armor (~31% damage reduction). In 2-piece t15, these numbers should be a reasonable/low estimate.
Let's walk through a 10-hit cycle a few times with various buffs up and compare damage taken. This is not a Purifying Brew exercise, so I won't use it in this scenario. It will create unrealistic Stagger damage. As such, I will perform no analysis on Stagger damage taken, but I am leaving it in the scenario for completeness.

Assume a mob is dual wielding with a swing timer of 1.0 sec and hitting for 200k per swing.
Monk: 25% passive damage reduction, 31% damage reduction from armor, 53% Stagger, 50% avoidance
Swing #1, 48645 Hit, 54855 Stagger
1 sec, 5485 Stagger tick
Swing #2, Dodge
2 sec, 5485 Stagger tick
Swing #3, 48645 Hit, 98740 Stagger
3 sec, 9874 Stagger tick
Swing #4, Dodge
4 sec, 9874 Stagger tick
Swing #5, 48645 Hit, 133847 Stagger
5 sec, 13384 Stagger tick
Swing #6, Parry
6 sec, 13384 Stagger tick
Swing #7, 48645 Hit, 153663 Stagger
7 sec, 15366 Stagger tick
Swing #8, Dodge
8 sec, 15366 Stagger tick
Swing #9, 48645 Hit, 177786 Stagger
9 sec, 17779 Stagger tick
Swing #10, Dodge
10 sec, 17779 Stagger tick
Damage from melee strikes: 243225
Total Stagger Damage: 123776
Total Damage: 367001

Now, using Elusive Brew and no other cooldowns:
Monk: 25% passive damage reduction, 31% damage reduction from armor, 53% Stagger, 80% avoidance
Swing #1, 48645 Hit, 54855 Stagger
1 sec, 5485 Stagger tick
Swing #2, Dodge
2 sec, 5485 Stagger tick
Swing #3, Dodge
3 sec, 5485 Stagger tick
Swing #4, Dodge
4 sec, 5485 Stagger tick
Swing #5, Dodge
5 sec, 5485 Stagger tick
Swing #6, Parry
6 sec, 5485 Stagger tick
Swing #7, 48645 Hit, 76800 Stagger
7 sec, 7680 Stagger tick
Swing #8, Dodge
8 sec, 7680 Stagger tick
Swing #9, Dodge
9 sec, 7680 Stagger tick
Swing #10, Parry
10 sec, 7680 Stagger tick
Damage from melee strikes: 97290
Total Stagger Damage: 63630
Total Damage: 160920

To compare the melee damage taken: 97290 / 243225 = 40% of damage taken in the initial scenario. This reflects one of the fundamental elements of EB: it is a huge white damage reduction cooldown, providing ~60% damage reduction when at 50% base avoidance. It's not entirely reliable, but this is the price we must pay for its potency.

Now with 2-piece bonus and no other cooldowns:
Monk: 25% passive damage reduction, 31% damage reduction from armor, 65% Stagger, 50% avoidance
Swing #1, 36225 Hit, 67275 Stagger
1 sec, 6728 Stagger tick
Swing #2, Dodge
2 sec, 6727 Stagger tick
Swing #3, 36225 Hit, 121095 Stagger
3 sec, 12110 Stagger tick
Swing #4, Dodge
4 sec, 12109 Stagger tick
Swing #5, 36225 Hit, 164151 Stagger
5 sec, 16415 Stagger tick
Swing #6, Parry
6 sec, 16415 Stagger tick
Swing #7, 36225 Hit, 198596 Stagger
7 sec, 19860 Stagger tick
Swing #8, Dodge
8 sec, 19859 Stagger tick
Swing #9, 36225 Hit, 226152 Stagger
9 sec, 22615 Stagger tick
Swing #10, Dodge
10 sec, 22615 Stagger tick
Damage from melee strikes: 181125
Total Stagger Damage: 155453
Total Damage: 336578

Comparing the total damage from the initial scenario: 336578 / 367001 = 91.7%. This buff provides about a 9% damage reduction in this situation.
Comparing direct strike damage: 181125 / 243225 = 74.5%. The buff, with 53% base Stagger, provides a roughly 25% transfer of direct strike damage into Stagger. Combined with more liberal PB usage, this will result in a sizeable damage reduction as well.

Lastly, let's compare having both EB and 2-piece up at the same time:
Monk: 25% passive damage reduction, 31% damage reduction from armor, 65% Stagger, 80% avoidance
Swing #1, 36225 Hit, 67275 Stagger
1 sec, 6728 Stagger tick
Swing #2, Dodge
2 sec, 6727 Stagger tick
Swing #3, Dodge
3 sec, 6728 Stagger tick
Swing #4, Dodge
4 sec, 6727 Stagger tick
Swing #5, Dodge
5 sec, 6728 Stagger tick
Swing #6, Parry
6 sec, 6727 Stagger tick
Swing #7, 36225 Hit, 94185 Stagger
7 sec, 9419 Stagger tick
Swing #8, Dodge
8 sec, 9418 Stagger tick
Swing #9, Dodge
9 sec, 9419 Stagger tick
Swing #10, Parry
10 sec, 9418 Stagger tick
Damage from melee strikes: 72450
Total Stagger Damage: 78039
Total Damage: 150489

Melee hits do 72,450 when overlapping EB and 2-piece. This is still a ~25% damage reduction from the 97290 of using EB alone. No surprise or complaints there.

I've left the Stagger damage in so you can look at it and math things out on your own, but there is a huge amount of selection bias going on in here. If I switch the dodged swings around a bit I can greatly increase or decrease the amount of Stagger damage taken in the 10 second window. Additionally, using PB will decrease the Stagger damage by a dramatic amount as well. Best to not try and make many arguments based upon numbers so easily manipulated.

On the other hand, the melee damage directly taken is consistent regardless of when the attacks land, so here is a quick recap ignoring Stagger damage:
Melee damage taken in the 2-piece scenario: 181125/243225 = 25.5% damage reduction
Melee damage taken in the EB scenario: 97290/243225 = 60% damage reduction
Melee damage taken in the double buff scenario: 72450/243225 = 70% damage reduction

There is a clearly diminished return in overlapping EB and 2-piece. Other than that, EB is far and away a larger damage reduction skill (in that it actually is one, whereas 2-piece is only a damage redistribution). 2-piece is a decent damage reduction on its own and will have effect against undodgeable attacks.

As it stands, canceling EB is only worthwhile if you will not live through a large special attack without the extra 12% Stagger redistribution (just use another cooldown, you clown car) or if there are no avoidable attacks being thrown your way.